Manhattan Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW thumped a shorter Manhattan team 50 to 35 that featured a first half brickfest followed by a more traditional second half.



This was a game that UW will not get many style points for. But, what happens before December 31 is ancient history come January. What happens in November is harder to remember, unless a loss is involved. The first half of this game will be long forgotten.



Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had a terrible shooting first half, scoring 17 points, but still had a 7 point lead due to outstanding defense. Things returned to normal in the second half.



Pace: The game had only 56 possessions.



Efficiency: UW scored only .89 PPP. But, they held Manhattan to a miserly .63PPP.



Shooting: The game was a tale of two halves. Nothing went in the first half, and things returned to normal in the second, at least for UW.



eFG%: Manhattan was at 31% to UW’s 41%. Rarely will 41% win a game. Even rarer will it be a blowout.



3 pt shooting: Manhattan was 2-7, 29%. That percentage looks good compared to UW’s 24% (5 of 24). But, UW had the quantity advantage, taking three times the shots from deep (21 shots to 7) and made an extra 3 shots for a plus 9 points from deep.



The first half brickfest featured UW going 1-7 and Manhattan 0-4 from deep. Then, things returned to normal and UW was 4-8 and Manhattan 2-3.



2pt shooting: Manhattan hit an incredibly low 12 of 42 shots inside the arc, 29%. Wow.



UW hit a poor 16 of 37 for 43%. Of those 16 baskets, 8 were in the paint and 8 from midrange. Despite some not-so-good shooting, UW still picked up 8 points inside the arc.



In the first half, UW was 6-17 (35%) and Manhattan 5-21, 24%.



1pt shooting: Manhattan got to the line 10 times to UW’s 5. They made 5 to UW’s 3. So, they were able to get back 2 points with their 5 extra free throw attempts.



Rebounding: UW did well defending the glass and average attacking the offensive glass.



UW Defensive end: When Manhattan shot, they got 26% of their misses. That is about on UW’s historical excellent defensive glass percentage. 33% is normal. Of the 38 misses, Manhattan got 10, UW 28.



UW Offensive End: When UW missed, we got 31% (12 of 39). That is about average, historically, for UW but way below this year’s pace. Regular readers will remember we are tracking offensive rebounding to see if there is a change is strategy with UW crashing the boards more frequently. This game would say “probably not.” We need to keep watching this.



The good news was that the 12 offensive rebounds lead to 12 second chance points. Manhattan grabbed two fewer, 10, offensive rebounds but only got 3 second chance points.



Turnovers: Manhattan had 12 for 21% (on the national average). UW normally does not stress steals so this is a good day for UW (or bad day for Manhattan).



Meanwhile, UW gave up a stingy 14%. So, UW protected the ball well.



UW scored 13 points off turnovers to Manhattan’s 6.



Opportunity Index: UW had an extra 6 opportunities (two extra offensive rebounds and 4 extra turnovers from Manhattan).



Fouls: Neither team fouled much. UW was whistled for 12 and Manhattan 13. But, Manhattan was able to get 10 FTA’s to UW’s 5.



Playing time: Bo went 7 deep with the starters (including Bruesewitz and Gasser) plus Jarmusz (21 minutes) and Evans (12).



Notable Performances: Leuer had a 16-13 dub-dub. He was 7-16 (yes, the shooting bug hit him in the first half going 4-11) and no turnovers. Jon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.



Taylor had an off day shooting going 1-7, 1-5 from deep for 3 points. He also had two turnovers, on consecutive plays if I remember. But, he played 36 minutes of stellar defense and two TO’s over that span is not bad for your primary ball handler.



Gasser scored 12 on 5-9 shooting and added a rebound to match his lone turnover. He played a remarkable 35 minutes. He is solid. There is already a lot of talk around the campfire about Josh.



Tim Jarmusz hit 2-4 deep shots, grabbed four boards, and played great defense. I hope he can keep his high efficiency up the rest of the year. That will make this team much more dangerous.



Grading Shetown’s Predictions



1. Badgers re-establish a dominant post game with more than 40 points in the paint. The Jaspers are small and unimposing at the big spots. Miss. They got 22, not even close.



2. Bruiser and Evans combine for less than 4 turnovers. I look for a deliberate effort from these two to take better care of the ball this game. Hit, they got two. But, they only played a combined 34 minutes. By the way, Evans picked up 3 fouls in 12 minutes. I think we can consider this an official problem that needs correcting.



3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy. Miss. 31%. Hopefully they get back on the boards against BC.



4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Jaspers attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues. Miss. Jaspers 10 attempts, UW made 3.







Posters at Manhattan’s message board are betting on the over/under of their collective beat down in the three games to be somewhere between 20 and 40 points per game. The Badgers don’t disappoint with 80-49 victory. Hit, sort of. UW won by 15 in only 56 possessions.





Closing Thoughts: Onwards to BC. In my opinion, the first half was a case of shots simply not dropping. Coaches can only do things to maximize the probability of shots being made, but someone has to take the shot and make it. That did not happen in the first half. I see nothing to panic about and nothing to cause a change in strategy or personnel.



On a side note, this is the first game I have watched in awhile (off at deer camp for the UNLV game, the others were often on ESPN3). So, I have made little progress picking a favorite player. Taylor and Gasser are looking good to me, despite Taylor’s game yesterday. Leuer may win out by his overwhelming presence. It is still too early to tell.



I will be curious if Gasser will play 35+ minutes in the next two games. That would be a lot of basketball in 3 straight days.

Manhattan Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Well losing to UNLV was a disappointing, albeit not unexpected, loss for Wisconsin first foray away from the Kohl. But life goes on, and so Wisconsin will take on a 2-1 Manhattan team in the first round of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. Manhattan is coming off a 91-80 loss to Long Island and have victories over Penn and the New Jersey Institute of Technology (yes, that exists and has a D1 basketball team). The Jaspers are coming off of a 11-20 season and return one player from their regular rotation on that team. Their new rotation consists of that one returnee, two pine riders from last season, and four freshman/jucos. They were also supposed to receive the services of an Alabama transfer that graduated from ‘Bama in three years, but he isn’t eligible. There are jokes o’ plenty in that ineligibility, but according to Manhattan fans, it’s because the athletic department messed up on his forms. Nonetheless, they are considered the patsy of the tournament, much like Chaminade in Maui.



Forum to Visit: Draddy Gym




What the expert nerds say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 76-53 Badger victory in 62 possessions, with a 2% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 21-point favorite.


Manhattan Likely Rotation (Last Season’s Statistics or First 3 Games Statistics¡)

*G – 6’2” FR Michael Alvarado (16.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 110.3 OR, 26% Poss, 21% Shot, 22% TO, 7.7 FTR, 23% of FGAs are 3PT)¡

*G – 6’1” JR Kidani Brutus (13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 140.4 OR, 14% Poss, 18% Shot, 12% TO, 2.6 FTR, 70% of FGAs are 3PT)¡

*G/F – 6’4” SO George Beamon (16.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 109.5 OR, 24% Poss, 26% Shot, 13% TO, 4.8 FTR, 15% of FGAs are 3PT)¡

*F – 6’6” SR Andrew Gabriel (11.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 80.8 OR, 24% Poss, 25% Shot, 29% TO, 2.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)¡

*C – 6’9” JR Djibril Coulibaly (1.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 68.4 OR, 12% Poss, 13% Shot, 18% TO, 2.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT) = only 8 minutes per game

F – 6’6” FR Rhamel Brown (8.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 135.7 OR, 16% Poss, 15% Shot, 16% TO, 4.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)¡

F – 6’8” JR Robert Martina (5.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 115.4 OR, 16% Poss, 14% Shot, 14% TO, 8.0 FTR, 20% of FGAs are 3PT)¡


PLAYER TRAITS (with revisions from suggestions)


THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

George Beamon = 17%

Robert Martina = 0%


Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

None



Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Kidani Brutus = 47%

Michael Alvarado = 43%




TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Michael Alvarado = 42%

Andrew Gabriel = 42%

Djibril Coulibaly = 25%



Marcus Landry (50-54%)

Kidani Brutus = 50%

George Beamon = 50%

Robert Martina = 50%



Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Rhamel Brown = 71%




FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Andrew Gabriel = 45%

Djibril Coulibaly = 27%



Kam Taylor (75-82%)

None



Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Robert Martina = 88%

Kidani Brutus = 86%

Michael Alvarado = 83%





DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Rhamel Brown = 17%



Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

None




OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Robert Martina = 12%

George Beamon = 13%



Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Rhamel Brown = 21%





STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

None



Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None




BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

Robert Martina = 5%



Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

Rhamel Brown = 9%





ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Michael Alvarado = 25%



Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

None



Demetri McCamey (+30%)

None




POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Kidani Brutus = 14%

Djibril Coulibaly = 13%



Brian Butch (24-28%)

Michael Alvarado = 26%

Andrew Gabriel = 24%

George Beamon = 24%



Alando Tucker (+28%)

None



This still isn’t set in stone… if you think I should use different players (Badgers or other Big Ten), feel free to suggest them so I don’t have Butch, Kelley, Tucker, and Hughes multiple times. For those questioning, all of the players had numbers in their range for either their entire career or their upperclassmen seasons. For example, Mike Kelley averaged a 4.5% steal rate with a high of 5.9 his junior year and Trevon Hughes shot 36% from three for his career with a high of almost 40% his senior year.





What Manhattan is really good at:

1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged nearly 1 turnover per 5 possessions, which is good for 102nd in the nation.

2. Shooting threes. They have shot 37.1% from deep so far this season, good for 94th in the country.

3. Offensive Rebounding. They have grabbed 37.2% of all rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 69th. Wisconsin is 1st.

4. Getting to the charity stripe and making them. They must not be a jump-shooting team like Illinois because they take 6 FTAs per 13 FGAs. Wisconsin has averaged 4 per 10.


What Manhattan is really bad at:

1. Defensive Rebounding. They have grabbed only 62% of all the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, good for 289th in the nation. Wisconsin is a hair below 78%, or 9th in the nation.

2. Forcing turnovers. They have forced only 2 turnovers per 12 possessions, which is 307th in the nation.

3. Defending the paint. They have surrendered a poor 50% inside the arc to 3 bad teams, good for 217th in the nation.



Relative efficiency:

When Manhattan has the ball: They have scored a terrible 0.93 PPP this season, while UW has given up a stingy 0.92 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up a terrible 1.06 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 this season.


Pace: Manhattan has played at 67 possessions per game to UW’s 64.


My expectations:

1. Badgers re-establish a dominant post game with more than 40 points in the paint. The Jaspers are small and unimposing at the big spots.

2. Bruiser and Evans combine for less than 4 turnovers. I look for a deliberate effort from these two to take better care of the ball this game.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy.

4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Jaspers attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues.



Posters at Manhattan’s message board are betting on the over/under of their collective beat down in the three games to be somewhere between 20 and 40 points per game. The Badgers don’t disappoint with 80-49 victory.