Minnesota Box Score Observations (pinch hit by FormerlyBIS)

Opening Comments: Thanks to Turomon for use of his excellent spreadsheet. I only watched the game without sound at a bowling alley as Tuesday night is league night for me. Any win over the Gophers in any sport is much appreciated for this Badger in Gopherland.

Summarizing the game in a few words: 3-pointers and free throws went the Badgers way, and they only turned it over twice the entire game which offset some stats that usually spell doom.

Pace: According to the spreadsheet Turomon provided, it was a 57 possession game. This is slightly slower than UW’s average of just under 60, and way under Minnesota’s norm

Efficiency: UW was 1.19 (season 1.20) and Minn was 1.05 (3^rd highest against us this year)

Shooting: This was a mishmash.

eFG%: MN 42%, UW 50%. This was slightly below the eFG% on the year for UW, both defensively and offensively.

3 pt shooting: UW won the quantity and quality battle here. MN was 3 for 12 (25%), UW was 9 for 24 (38%) – that’s +18 points for Bucky.

2pt shooting: MN won this battle in a rout. MN was 20 for 47 (43%), UW was 12 for 27 (44%) – a 16 point swing for Goldy.

It was also 34-12 for MN for points in the paint, and 16-2 in 2^nd chance points. Not usually a good formula for Bucky success.

1pt shooting: MN was 11 for 15 for 73% which is not bad, but UW was a game-clinching 17-18 (94%).

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 165 Opponent Attempts: 187 Difference: -22

UW gained 2 – still a long way to go.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 40% 15 %

Mid Range 18% 10%

Paint 18% 57%

FT Line 25% 18%

Rebounding: A very bad night for Bucky or good for Goldy.

UW Defensive end: UW surrendered 17 offensive boards out of 37 opportunities for a defensive rebounding stat of 54%, easily the worst of the season and worst in a long time.

UW Offensive End: UW only got 4 offensive boards out of 29 opportunities for a microscopic 14%, also easily the worst of the season. However, Leuer did get one very important one in the last minute

Turnovers: UW had 2 turnovers, an amazing 4% against a team known to thrive on defensive pressure. Minnesota only committed 8, but as we all know, UW doesn’t rely much on forcing turnovers anyway

Opportunity Index: UW was -7. You don’t win many games with that stat.

Fouls: MN actually ended up fouling more at 18-16. It was lopsided the other way until MN had to foul at the end.

Playing time: UW went 8 deep – only 3 minutes from RW as the starters plus JB, RE, and TJ played 197 of the 200 minutes. MN played only 7 players more than 10 minutes

Notable Performances: Jordan Taylor. Even though it wasn’t his most efficient line of the year, he took over the game when Bucky needed it. He was responsible, however, for all of the Badgers’ missed free throws and half the turnovers (both 1). Unlike Turomon who has some guy named Jon, JT was tabbed my favorite player at the beginning of last year before he had emerged to be, well, Jordan Taylor. Jordan, I believe tales of your exploits will be told around the campfires of Bruce’s cheese-loving people.

Leuer again chipped in 16, but it was a bit of an off night, by his standards. 4-13 from the field, but 6-6 from the charity stripe.

Nank was efficient getting 11 on 5 shots.

Jarmusz cold-bloodedly sank all 3 of his shots for 9 points. That’s7-8 from behind the arc over the last two games. TIM-MAY!

Berggren was big especially early in the game. He looks to be a major weapon for the future, especially against teams with size.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Badgers rain from deep, knocking down more than 9 threes. The Gophers' zone will allow open looks and the Badgers take advantage. Miss. Exactly 9. You are amazing.

2. A Non-Jordan, -Jon, and –Keaton score in double figures. Let it ride, especially with the Gophers keying on Jordan and Jon and playing zone. Miss. Tim-may with 9 – almost.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 75% on the defensive. They are good o-boarders but not d-boarders. Miss and Miss. By a mile and a mile.

The Badgers kill the Gophers without a reason, 60-55 in 56 possessions. Hit. 68-60 in 57 possessions.

Closing Thoughts: With the rebounding disparity and the deficit with points in the paint, the odds of the Badgers losing a game with those stats are pretty good. UW can’t keep doing that and expect success. On to Chambana.

Minnesota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Tonight the Big Ten season kicks off for the Badgers against one of their most hated rivals, the Gophers of Minnesota. The brown, furry rodents come into the game at 11-1, with only two top 119 (Ken Pom) wins, against West Virginia and North Carolina. I'm not sure why UNC is #29 right now, but I think that will sort itself out eventually. Other than those victories, the ground squirrels haven't looked like world-beaters against a bunch of cupcakes, and embarrassed themselves in a loss to Tony Bennett's undermanned Virginia team on national television.

What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 69-59 Badger victory in 61 possessions with a 15% chance of an upset.

Minnesota Likely Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Al Nolen	30.6	9.0	3.0	3.7	2.7	0.1	105.2	17.5	25.7	69.8%	47.4%	37.1%	45.7%	12.29	2.5	7.5	20.2	0.5	5.0
* G	6'4"	Blake Hoffarber	33.7	13.9	3.6	5.0	1.7	0.1	126.4	18.7	15.0	85.2%	48.6%	39.1%	71.3%	2.09	3.0	7.9	27.8	0.2	2.8
* F	6'7"	Rodney Williams	20.3	6.4	3.8	1.5	0.7	0.4	96.8	19.3	25.3	50.0%	63.0%	12.5%	25.8%	4.19	9.9	9.4	13.6	2.2	1.8
* F	6'8"	Trevor Mbakwe	26.8	13.2	9.8	0.7	1.1	1.3	108.3	23.2	19.6	55.3%	62.2%	-	0.0%	9.44	12.6	25.2	5.0	5.4	2.2
* F/C	6'11"	Ralph Sampson	25.7	11.5	6.0	1.3	0.6	2.2	109.1	21.5	16.2	71.2%	50.0%	30.0%	9.8%	5.10	7.1	16.9	10.2	9.2	1.2
G	6'4"	Devoe Joseph	26.5	11.8	2.0	3.3	0.8	0.0	105.8	22.5	19.0	60.0%	38.5%	40.0%	57.4%	2.46	0.6	6.9	24.3	0.0	1.7
F/C	6'10"	Colton Iverson	17.3	7.0	5.8	0.8	0.4	0.8	103.6	22.6	20.4	55.8%	51.7%	-	0.0%	7.41	16.4	18.8	8.2	5.2	1.3
G	6'4"	Austin Hollins	16.8	4.2	1.2	1.5	1.2	0.4	106.5	13.8	22.4	69.2%	40.9%	42.1%	46.3%	3.17	2.7	4.4	15.3	2.7	4.2
G	6'3"	Chip Armelin	10.1	4.2	1.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	93.7	21.5	21.7	40.0%	68.0%	20.0%	44.4%	2.22	3.6	13.2	11.7	0.9	2.3
G	6'2"	Maverick Ahanmisi	9.3	1.9	1.0	1.2	0.2	0.0	87.0	16.1	35.4	81.8%	37.5%	33.3%	42.9%	7.86	1.0	9.8	21.0	0.0	1.1

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	34	15.4	4.2	4.8	0.9	0.2	131.9	23.7	10.4	85.7%	47.6%	41.2%	37.8%	3.63	3.4	12.1	29.0	0.8	1.8
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	27	6.7	3.9	2.2	0.5	0.1	120.0	15.8	16.0	88.0%	57.1%	20.7%	45.3%	3.91	6.6	11.6	15.2	0.3	1.2
* F	6'6"	Mike Breusewitz	23	5.9	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.1	126.3	13.9	18.9	69.2%	59.3%	41.7%	47.1%	2.55	8.9	10.1	10.5	0.3	0.7
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	32	19.8	7.3	2.2	0.8	1.8	129.2	27.9	11.8	79.2%	51.4%	50.0%	35.9%	2.87	6.8	21.4	16.2	6.0	1.5
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	22	7.6	4.6	0.9	0.8	1.5	124.2	17.5	18.5	87.5%	60.0%	41.7%	34.8%	1.16	12.1	13.3	8.2	7.4	2.2
G/F	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	19	3.8	2.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	135.0	9.8	5.8	60.0%	50.0%	36.4%	84.6%	1.28	4.8	8.0	9.1	0.0	2.3
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	14	4.0	3.5	1.1	0.1	0.4	85.7	25.3	19.6	76.2%	30.8%	0.0%	5.5%	3.82	8.8	21.7	14.1	3.2	0.3
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	8.6	4.4	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	109.0	26.5	35.2	71.4%	63.2%	50.0%	38.5%	2.69	8.7	14.3	15.9	2.5	0.7
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	7.7	2.8	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	129.0	18.3	16.6	75.0%	68.8%	16.7%	27.3%	1.82	9.7	16.0	13.5	0.0	0.8
G	5'10"	Wquinton Smith	7.5	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.0	0.0	92.1	12.5	21.4	40.0%	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	5.56	11.7	3.2	15.3	0.0	0.0
G	6'1"	Ben Brust	3.9	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	68.1	17.2	20.0	-	33.3%	14.3%	53.8%	0.00	6.4	12.6	0.0	0.0	1.7
G	6'4"	Brett Valentyn	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	106.9	13.1	22.2	-	-	33.3%	100.0%	0.00	0.0	8.0	3.9	0.0	0.0

During this holiday season, we should remember to be thankful to our neighbors in East Dakota:

For our wonderful guys Jon Leuer, Jordan Taylor, Mike Breusewitz, and Jared Berggren all hail from that horrid place, and if it wasn't for Minnesota's inability to recruit them, we would have to get 48.2% of our minutes, 62.7% of our scoring, 45.9% of our rebounding, 57.7% of our assists, 52.9% of our blocks, and 48% of our steals from someplace else.

What Minnesota is really good and bad at:

	TO %	Reb%	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block %	Steal %
Offense	20.7	39.4	49.6	34.7	53.4	62.4	5.3	10.5
Defense	21.8	68.3	28.8	36.7	40.5	70.3	15.9	12.5

What Wisconsin is really good and bad at:

	TO %	Reb%	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block %	Steal %
Offense	15.3	39.8	28.0	38.2	50.5	79.1	5.9	7.8
Defense	19.9	72.0	28.7	36.3	39.8	70.9	11.8	7.0

Relative Efficiency:

When Minnesota has the ball: They have scored great 1.09 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.91 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an above average 0.97 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.20 this season.

Pace: Minnesota has played at 70 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers rain from deep, knocking down more than 9 threes. The Gophers' zone will allow open looks and the Badgers take advantage.

2. A Non-Jordan, -Jon, and –Keaton score in double figures. Let it ride, especially with the Gophers keying on Jordan and Jon and playing zone.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 75% on the defensive. They are good o-boarders but not d-boarders.

The Badgers kill the Gophers without a reason, 60-55 in 56 possessions.