UW-Superior Pre-game Analysis: A Stat Geek's Perspective

For the upcoming season, turumon and I will be sharing the duties of the pre-game analysis and box score observations of each game. I'll do my best to live up to the standard he set with all the stats. With that in mind, I need a few warm-ups just like the team, so here's a mostly unneeded pre-game for UW-Superior...

Opening Thoughts: I just love basketball season. I enjoy football and hockey, but something about basketball is just so much more satisfying to me. With each passing day, the eminent return of basketball to Kohl Center is, as the Padre says, in the air!


What the expert nerds say:

Sagarin doesn’t care about this game.

Ken Pomeroy doesn’t care about this game either.

Vegas odds makers don’t care either.


Style Profile, I Said:

UW-Superior Probable Starters
G – 5’9” Dwight Hill (12.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 2.8 A-TO rate)
G – 6’0” Dan Culy (13.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2.0 APG)
G – 6’5” Ben Aalfs (4.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
F – 6’6” Jake Smith (17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG)
C – 6’8” Greg Roeder (2.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.5 BPG)

The Yellowjackets played at about the same pace as Marquette and UConn last season. Their leading scorer is 6’6” junior forward Ben Smith, who is a two-time WIAC All-Conference player and looks like he scores much like Jon Leuer, primarily inside with a shot from outside that keeps the D honest (51% from 2 and 29% from 3). Their scoring make-up (where the points come from… 1-, 2-, or 3-pt land) is very, very similar to last season’s Illini team… heavy amounts of 2-pointers (61%), with little scoring coming from either line.


What UW-Superior is really good at:

1. Protecting the ball. They only turned it over 16.4% of their possessions last season. Wisconsin turned it over at 16.0% rate.


What UW-Superior is average at:

1. Scoring. They scored 1.03 PPP last season despite protecting it so well.

2. Defensive Rebounding. The ‘Jackets secured a slightly below average 65.9% of all rebounds on their defensive end.


What UW-Superior is really bad at:

1. Rebounding offensively. If they were a Division 1 team last season, they would be in the bottom 15 in the category.

2. Defense. Their defense gave up a poor 1.05 PPP last season.

3. Getting to the free throw line. The ‘Jackets don’t get to the line much, as they only got 16.4% of their points from the stripe. That would qualify for the bottom 6% of Division I.


Relative efficiency: As noted above, Superior has very bad defense and acceptable offense.

When Superior has the ball: They scored a ho-hum 1.03 PPP last season, while UW gave 0.72 PPP to Bemidji State and 0.95 last season.

When UW has the ball: They gave up a bad 1.05 last season, while UW scored 1.20 on BSU and 1.14 last season.


Pace: Superior played at 68 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 76 in their intra-squad scrimmage and game against BSU.


My expectations: Badgers roll. The Badgers significant athletic, talent, and height advantages combine for a similar outcome as the Bemidji State game.

Turomon's Bemidji State Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: Consider this a warm up for the regular season. I dusted off the old spreadsheet, updated with a new schedule, and should be good to go for a new season.

As an exhibition game, I will try to refrain from drawing any conclusions. This will simply say what the box score tells us.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW steamrolled an inferior team by hitting their shots inside the arc and taking a bunch of free throws. As good as the offense was, which was very good, it was primarily a defensive win.

Pace: The game was a zippy 75 possessions. We were usually in the low 60’s last year. This should be expected for an exhibition game.

Efficiency: Bemidji scored at a .72 PPP clip. The best we did last year was .73 against NW in a home blow out.

On offense, UW score 90 points or 1.20PPP. While excellent, it was not near our best from last year. In conference, that was less than Indiana (1.39), Iowa (1.30), Michigan (1.22) and NW 1.21. Out of conference, we lit up Edwardsville (1.29) at a greater pace.

Shooting: UW took 8 more shots from the floor and 27 more shots from the line. Ouch! See the fouls, rebounding and turnover numbers.

3 pt shooting: The one somewhat shining moment for BSU was their 3 point shooting. They hit 6-17 for 35% compared to UW’s poor 5-20 for 25%. Edge BSU – plus 3 points.

2pt shooting: UW cleaned up inside the arc. UW took 4 more shots and hit 12 more baskets. UW was 28-43 for a sizzling 65% to BSU’s 16-39 for 42%. Or, BSU lost 24 points inside the arc.

1pt shooting: UW took 32 FTA and only hit 19 for a miserable 59%. BSU was 4-5 for 80%. In a case of quantity trumping quality, UW had a plus 15 points from the line.

Rebounding: With the loss of Landry and Krabbenhoft, rebounding will be worth keeping a close eye on this year. One would expect Bo to teach rebounding and get the job done, but I would like to see the results.

UW Defensive end: UW cleaned up the boards nearly perfectly. UW grabbed 27 of 30 possible rebound attempts for 91%. Fantastic.

UW Offensive End: UW was effective on the offensive glass as well. UW had 35 rebound opportunities and got 14 for 40%. Anything about 33% is typically good. UW does not value offensive rebounds like some teams (e.g. MSU) so anything over 30% is good by UW standards.

Turnovers: BSU had 19 TO’s, or 25%. UW had 13 for 17%. UW often has a low TO rate but fails to gather TO’s at the other end. In this case, UW had a plus 6 edge. I would not expect this to continue.

Fouls: BSU had 19 to UW’s 13. But, the key point was UW got to the line 32 times to BSU’s 5. Last year, we lost he “UW shoots more FT’s that the other team makes” mantra. Can we get it back? Can Bo recreate the amazing no foul defense that Tucker and Taylor mastered? We shall see.

Playing time: Bo played 10 players more than10 minutes. A clear indication that this was an exhibition game.

Notable Performances: As an exhibition game, many Badgers came, saw and conquered. JBO had a nice line hitting 14 points on 8 shots, 4 FTA’s and grabbed 4 boards. JBO, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Closing Thoughts: I am assuming that those who do not buy into tempo free stats have long since given up on reading this post, so this is directed towards those few that hung in there with me.

The things that Bo does that generates wins are the things that do not make Sports Center’s top ten plays: Get to the line, play position defense and do not go for steals unless they are a sure thing, avoid fouling, avoid turnovers, protect the defensive glass at risk of losing fast break opportunities, get back on defense and forgo offensive rebounding opportunities … He says, “Make the good play, not the great play.” I think all of this adds up to people not appreciating how good UW’s offense has been over the years. UW scored 90 points, which is a high total for UW. UW never scored 90 points in D1 games last year, yet the offensive performance was only not our best compared to last year. But our defense was, compared to last year. But, how many would recognize that?

None of this means much because we will not be able to feast on BSU-like teams.

A thought on tempo: The important thing about basketball is that completing a possession awards the other team a possession. So, getting your work done fast only gives the other team another possession more quickly. If working fast gets more PPP, I am all for it. The most exciting teams are winning teams, and winning teams are efficient teams. That is a tempo free concept.

Many thanks to Bruce.

Big Ten Media Day Links

I'm a bit late on this stuff but...

2 Interviews with Bo Ryan and 1 Each with Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon (credit to SportsBubbler)

Bo Ryan Interview with Big Ten Network (uwbadgers.com)

uwbadgers.com Blog Post from Media Day #1

uwbadgers.com Blog Post from Media Day #2

Media Day Thoughts from Cap Time Reporters Rob Schultz and Dennis Punzel

Red vs. White Scrimmage Review

I'm got back from the Red/White Scrimmage about 2 hours ago. It was a tight game early, with a 22-22 tie at half, but Team White, led by the senior guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon and junior Keaton Nankivil pulled away to win 45-36.

Pace: The game was 49 possessions. Since there was only about 25 minutes of actual game time, the regular possessions would have been 78. Comparing to last season’s statistics, that’s good for second fastest pace… in the NATION. But in no way am I saying that will continue on into the season.


Efficiency: Red scored 0.75 PPP. White scored 0.90 PPP.


Shooting: Red shot a poor 32.6% from the field and 26.7% from 3. This shooting performance was highlighted by a 2/12 Jon Leuer (1 of 5 from 3) and a 2/9 Jordan Taylor (0 of 4 from 3).

White shot a mediocre 43.9% from the field and 45.5% from 3. Remove Wquinton Smith subpar shooting night, and White’s percentage jump to 47.2 and 62.5.

Red got up 46 FGA’s to White’s 41, or UW had 5 extra shots. White shot 6 FTA’s to Red’s 2. So, 2 possessions for White ended up at the line. That leaves 2 extra possessions for White. White had 5 more turnovers.


3 pt shooting: This is a highlight for me. Every one of the starters (projected) made a trey. Rob Wilson showed an improved outside shot, nailing 2 of 3 from behind the line. Players in the expected rotation combined to hit 40.9% (9/22) from 3… and 61.5% with Leuer and Taylor’s numbers taken out.



2pt shooting: Red hit 35.4% inside the line. White knocked down 43.3% inside. Red had 1 extra shots and made 2 less than White. Red was 11 of 31 while UW was 13 of 30.



1pt shooting: White had a clear advantage from the line. White was 4-6, 67%, while Red was only 2-2, 100%.


Rebounding: Both teams completely controlled their defensive glass.

Red Defensive end: There were 24 rebounding possibilities and White got 6, or 25%. Average is 33%.

White Defensive End: There were 30 rebounding opportunities on Red’s offensive end and Red got 6, or 20%. Nearly half the average.


Turnovers: This was rather disappointing, but I’ll chalk it up to swallowed whistles and knowing each other’s tendencies. Red had 7 TO’s, or 15% of their possessions ended with White taking the ball and no shots. White had 12, or 24% turnover rate. That means Red had a plus 5 TO margin, which was required to get up more shots.

Hughes had 3 and a plethora of players had 1 or 2 each.


Notable Performances: Ryan Evans had a monster second half, scoring all 7 of his points then. He was 1 of 2 from the line, earning a trip from driving hard to the basket and getting hacked. Then he had a nice drive and finish from the left free throw line extended. Lastly, on back-to-back possessions, Evans first scored on an alley-oop from Hughes (finally connecting on the 3rd try) and then throwing down a one-hander over Leuer on a fast break. He stuffed the stat book with a line of 7 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks. He wasn’t afraid to push the ball up court if he got a long rebound either, which I like. Hopefully he can get some play this season.

Keaton Nankivil had a great, efficient game, scoring 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting, including 2 of 3 from 3, and grabbing 7 rebounds. He also had a block and a steal.

Trevon Hughes had a great game running the offense. He didn’t call his own number often (2 of 5, 1 of 1 from 3 for 5 points), but was driving and dishing all night, dropping 4 dimes. He also focused on the defensive end, grabbing 3 steals and 4 defensive rebounds.

Jason Bohannon scored in a variety of ways, including off the dribble. He ended up with 10 point on 4 of 10 with 2 made threes. He also dished out 2 assists and snagged 4 boards.

Rob Wilson showed that offensive swagger we saw in small spurts from last season. He scored 10 points to lead the Red team, hitting 2 threes and slashing to the basket and posting up often. He also grabbed 2 offensive boards, dished an assist, and got a steal. He’ll be that scoring punch off the bench that Bo says he always likes to have.

Tim Jarmusz had his efficient, unimpressive to some type of game. He was 2 of 5, 1 of 2 from trey for 7 points (2/2 FT), grabbed 4 boards, and passed out 3 assists to no turnovers. To steal a line from turumon… campfire, people, etc.

What Now?

With Blue's commitment to Marquette, what does Wisconsin do now with the extra scholarship? With the departure of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon after this season, the Badgers will be left with only 3 scholarship guards on the roster... juniors Jordan Taylor and Rob Wilson and true freshman Josh Gasser. That isn't going to cut it. They need another guard in the class of 2010. From what I can find, these are the best candidates on the radar...

1. 6'6" G/F Harrison Barnes from Iowa... Surely, the best prospect of 2010 would pick a late arriving offer from Wisconsin over Duke, UNC, Kansas, Oklahoma, and UCLA right? Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

2. 6'1" PG Lavonte Dority from Illinois... a strong, physical guard who likes to penetrate into the lane and finish. He overpowers other guards and likes to go left if he's laying it in or pull-up for a jumper going right. His three point shooting is a weakness. He has been compared to Sherron Collins. Supposedly he's visiting campus in a few weeks.

3. 6'1" SG DeAndre McCamey from Illinois... Demitri's little brother who, like Dority, likes to play physical and overpower other guards. His strength is in his mid-range jumper and playing shutdown defense. His conditioning and offensive skills are weaknesses and he's coming off a major knee injury, requiring him to wear knee sleeves on both legs.

4. 6'5" G/F Flavien Davis from Wisconsin... he's an inside/outside guy, but is very inconsistent from the perimeter. He has below average quickness for a small forward and hasn't really progressed as much as many hoped since his freshman year.

5. 6'4" SG Chim Kadima from Wisconsin... a decommit from Iowa State, he's a good scorer with good range and an ability to post up smaller defenders. He suffered a leg injury his junior season that set back his development. Strength and quickness are a weakness.


Maybe a new guy we haven't heard of before bursts on the scene or Bo finds a JUCO capable of being admitted to Wisconsin, but otherwise, the last scholarship will most likely be filled by one of those five (ok, four) guys.

Mega Post of Info I Haven't Gotten Around To

1. Nnana Egwu, a 2011 PF/C from Illinois has committed to Illinois. Wisconsin had previously offered him.

2. Wisconsin has offered 2011 SG Achraf Yacoubou (6'3") from New York. It's an odd offer since it's out of UW's usual recruiting area and Achraf has already stated his top 3 schools are UConn, Villanova, and Kentucky. I'm not liking our chances to say the least.

3. Wisconsin has also offered 2011 PG Trey Lewis (5'10") from Garfield Heights, OH. He attends the same high school as Rob Wilson and has other offers from Penn State, St. Joe's, Miami (OH), Cleveland State, Akron, and Kent State. As a sophomore, Trey scored 19.3 PPG and scored nearly two/thirds of his points from behind the arc.

4. Wisconsin has also offered 2011 G/F Markus Crider (6'6") of Huber Heights, OH. He has offers from Akron, Cincinnati, Dayton, Cleveland State, and Wright State also.

5. Wisconsin has basically decided not to pursue 6'4" 2012 SF Junior Lomomba of Madison Memorial. The most suspected reason is a difference in beliefs about the recruiting process between relative and mentor of Junior, former Badger Hennssy Auriental.

6. 6'7" 2011 SF Paul Jesperson of Merrill is starting to get some love from high major schools and Wisconsin may be pulling the trigger on an offer some time too with Coach Gard keeping tabs on him. He has recently received an offer from Arizona State and also has offers from Colorado St, Loyola (IL), North Dakota St, Northern Iowa, San Diego, South Dakota St, UW-Milwaukee, and UW-Green Bay.

7. Last but not least, practice has begun. Here are some articles about it...
Final Hill Climb
Getting to Know Jared Berggren
Day One Review
Steve Stricker and Andy North to Coach Teams in Red-White Scrimmage

Vander commits to that other school...

Ugh. Vander Blue has committed to Marquette. For some reason, I was holding out hope that he'd recommit to Wisconsin, but alas, it wasn't meant to be. His BFF Jeronne Maymon, Wes Matthews, and supposedly Hennssy Auriental were talking in his ear about going to Marquette, and I guess Howard Moore was unable to overpower that. I wouldn't be too disappointed if I didn't think UW's chances of landing J.P. Tokoto took a hit with Vander not going to UW. I don't really feel like writing more on this. With the exception of the Packers, this sports weekend has been really crappy. Vander committing to one of UW's biggest rivals just is like an unneccessarily cruel punch to the gut after getting the wind knocked out of you (due to the eggs the hockey and football teams laid on Friday and Saturday). I wish I could say I wish him well, but I'd be lying if did. I hope he goes 0-4 against UW, has no Big East or NCAA hardware to show for his time there, and utimately regrets his decision.