Monday, March 14, 2011

Belmont Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comment: It's that time of year again! Wisconsin enters the 2011 NCAA Tournament with a 23-8 record, earning a 4 seed from the committee. Their first round opponent in Tucson are the Bruins of Belmont, the 30-4 Atlantic Sun Conference champions. If they are able to advance to the second round, they will face a 5 seed Kansas State squad or a 12 seed Utah State squad. If they were to advance to the Sweet 16 after that, they would likely face 1 seed Pitt, or maybe 8 seed Butler or 9 seed Old Dominion. Nevertheless, Wisconsin's opponent of Belmont, while sporting a rather weak schedule, dominated their conference. As such, Ken Pomeroy ranks them as the 18th best team in the country, or having the ability of a 5 seed. So that's pretty lame for us. It's along the same lines of Florida State getting us in 2009, as we were actually considered marginally better than them by Pomeroy despite our seed being a 12 seed and FSU being a 5 seed. Or Pitt and us meeting as 3 and 6 seeds in the second round despite being ranked #4 and #5 in Pomeroy's rankings.


Forum to Visit: Atlantic Sun Team Talk - Belmont


What the Expert Nerds Say:
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-63 Badger victory in 59 possessions, with a 39% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 4-point Badger victory.


Belmont's Style of Play:
Offense = When Belmont has the ball, they are a rather equal opportunity offense. Only a player, Scott Saunders, uses more than 24% of the possessions when they are on the court, and only one, Adam Barnes, uses less than 15.7% of them. Comparatively, Wisconsin has two guys, Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, who use more than 24%, and five guys that use less than 15.7% of them. No one on the Bruins roster scores more than 13 points a game, but they have three double-digit scorers and six guys that score between 5 and 10 points a game. Their offense is up-tempo (9th fastest team in the tournament), resulting in easy transition scores from attacking the basket and spot-up threes. Belmont attempts five three-point attempts for every seven two-point attempts, which is a tad more often than Wisconsin's four to every six. The primary ballhandlers for Belmont are Drew Hanlen and Kerron Johnson. Each brings their own unique style as Hanlen is a three-point bomber, attempting nearly four triples a game and knocking down a respectable 34.6% of them, but has substantial trouble in the land of trees, making a putrid 37.5% of his twos. On the other hand, Johnson attempts only one three a game, but is very aggressive attacking the basket. He makes more than half of his twos and has attempted more free throws than field goals. Unfortunately for Belmont, this aggressiveness has resulted in a sub-1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio and a turnover rate near 30%. Sophomore shooting guard Ian Clark (6'3") is the leading scorer on the team, taking a nearly equal amount of shots on each side of the arc, shooting 55% inside and 44% outside. This isn't to say that the team is completely perimeter-oriented though. The second- and third-leading scorers are forwards 6'9" Mick Hedgepeth and 6'10" Scott Saunders. The two of them combine to shoot 238 of 451(52.8%) inside the arc, have only attempted 11 threes all season, both have attempted more free throws than Jon Leuer on the season, and both are fantastic offensive rebounders. Collectively, they are one of the best shooting teams in the tournament, as they are the sixth best two-point shooters, 13th at the charity stripe, and 14th beyond the arc. Interestingly enough, they get their shots blocked the most out all the teams in the tournament despite their great two-point numbers. They are below average at taking care of the ball (50th), average at getting to the line (38th), and good at offensive rebounding (12th).

Defense = When Belmont is on defense, they like to pester the hell their opponent. They are the best team in the tournament at forcing turnovers, especially via steals (#1 as well). They are exactly average at defending threes (#34) for a tournament team, above average defending the paint (#25), and below average at blocking shots (#42). However, with this extremely aggressive system, they foul like mad. Only one team in the tournament sends the other team to the line as more often than the Bruins and seven of the 12 guys in their rotation would foul out or come close, on average, if they played 40 minutes. They also slightly suffer at rebounding defensively, being 49th best in the tournament.


Belmont's Resume:
KenPom = #18
Sagarin = #34
Record vs. Ken Pom Top 160 = 1-3 (0-2 vs. #55 Tennessee, 0-1 vs. #32 Vanderbilt, 1-0 vs. #112 East Tennessee State)


A Match-Up of Contrasts:
Wisconsin Lack of Turnovers = best in the tourney
Belmont Forcing Turnovers = best in the tourney

Wisconsin's Tempo = slowest in the tourney
Belmont's Tempo = 9th fastest in the tourney

Wisconsin's Defensive Rebounding = 4th in the tourney
Belmont's Offensive Rebounding = 12th in the tourney

Wisconsin's Offensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney
Belmont's Defensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney

Wisconsin's Stealing Ability = worst in the tourney
Belmont's Abilty to Avoid Steals = 13th worst in the tourney

Wisconsin's Ability to Avoid Steals = 3rd best in the tourney
Belmont's Stealing Ability = best in the tourney


Belmont Rotation:
Position Year Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % Shot % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G Junior 5'11" Drew Hanlen 23.3 6.4 1.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 118.0 16.3 15.1 20.8 86.4% 37.5% 34.6% 72.6% 3.37 1.1 7.6 28.6 0.0 1.8 1.97
* G Sophomore 6'3" Ian Clark 24.6 12.4 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 121.8 20.4 24.8 17.1 81.3% 55.4% 43.9% 54.1% 2.11 2.2 8.9 15.0 0.8 2.9 3.53
* G/F Senior 6'6" Jon House 19.0 5.4 3.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 111.2 16.3 14.0 23.3 68.3% 51.9% 39.3% 21.2% 4.55 9.0 11.8 15.0 1.4 2.6 3.41
* F Sophomore 6'7" Trevor Noack 14.9 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 104.1 18.4 22.8 17.9 76.2% 54.2% 30.2% 57.1% 1.25 8.0 17.4 6.5 2.0 1.8 4.28
* F/C Junior 6'9" Mick Hedgepeth 21.9 10.6 6.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 115.7 22.6 22.4 15.6 71.5% 53.8% 40.0% 4.1% 5.61 12.8 19.3 5.8 3.3 1.5 4.67
G/F Senior 6'5" Jordan Campbell 21.3 8.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.4 133.6 16.0 18.5 17.8 66.7% 64.7% 46.0% 82.6% 1.38 5.8 11.6 18.5 2.2 3.8 3.49
G Sophomore 6'1" Kerron Johnson 18.1 7.7 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.1 109.0 24.0 15.5 28.9 74.5% 52.0% 46.2% 28.1% 10.14 2.8 6.3 26.3 0.1 6.2 5.41
F/C Junior 6'10" Scott Saunders 17.4 10.0 5.4 0.3 0.3 1.2 112.7 26.8 25.3 15.6 73.6% 51.6% 0.0% 0.5% 7.29 12.0 24.0 3.8 7.7 1.0 5.08
G/F Freshman 6'6" J.J. Mann 15.6 6.1 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 106.8 20.0 25.5 15.6 65.2% 48.9% 32.7% 55.6% 1.16 6.7 10.5 11.7 0.2 3.3 3.23
F Sophomore 6'6" Brandon Baker 12.2 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 101.3 15.7 17.8 21.2 64.3% 54.3% 28.8% 67.6% 1.30 5.9 13.0 11.6 3.3 3.4 6.28
F Freshman 6'7" Blake Jenkins 10.4 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 97.9 22.2 18.9 26.3 68.6% 50.0% 31.0% 30.5% 5.37 9.8 15.0 10.4 1.6 1.6 6.62
G Sophomore 6'2" Adam Barnes 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 110.9 13.7 14.3 28.0 66.7% 58.8% 60.0% 22.7% 1.36 3.3 4.4 10.3 0.0 2.7 4.58


Wisconsin Rotation:
Position Year Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % Shot % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G Junior 6'1" Jordan Taylor 36.2 18.1 4.1 4.7 0.7 0.1 131.1 26.7 26.7 8.1 84.9% 50.4% 43.3% 37.5% 3.98 3.1 12.2 30.3 0.4 1.4 2.53
* G Freshman 6'3" Josh Gasser 28.0 5.9 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 127.1 13.3 11.5 15.0 85.1% 60.0% 30.5% 44.0% 3.51 5.8 13.2 15.7 0.2 1.1 3.36
* F/G Senior 6'6" Tim Jarmusz 22.9 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 127.7 9.7 10.0 10.1 90.5% 38.5% 34.1% 86.3% 2.21 4.9 7.5 9.3 0.1 1.6 1.80
* F Senior 6'10" Jon Leuer 33.6 18.6 7.3 1.7 0.5 0.9 118.2 29.3 32.2 11.0 84.7% 47.4% 37.8% 30.2% 2.64 6.5 22.8 12.8 3.1 1.0 2.46
* F Senior 6'8" Keaton Nankivil 28.4 10.0 4.4 0.7 0.5 1.2 128.6 17.2 19.3 12.4 84.8% 54.6% 46.2% 52.4% 1.45 8.7 12.1 5.3 5.0 1.2 2.63
F Sophomore 6'6" Mike Bruesewitz 19.2 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 116.3 14.5 13.5 17.7 72.7% 60.0% 30.8% 48.6% 2.06 8.9 10.3 10.5 0.7 1.0 3.83
G/F Sophomore 6'6" Ryan Evans 11.9 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 83.3 21.8 20.1 20.0 77.1% 32.3% 0.0% 3.0% 3.54 6.7 20.3 8.5 3.4 1.1 3.79
F/C Sophomore 6'10" Jared Berggren 7.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 99.2 22.4 20.3 24.1 61.5% 61.3% 27.8% 46.2% 2.65 7.2 13.5 9.6 6.4 0.3 7.03
G Senior 5'10" Wquinton Smith 5.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 101.7 12.1 9.4 18.1 33.3% 36.4% 20.0% 31.3% 3.75 8.2 4.3 17.0 0.0 0.5 3.78
G/F Junior 6'4" Rob Wilson 7.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 92.5 17.3 18.7 14.2 87.5% 52.0% 5.9% 40.5% 1.90 5.4 12.9 9.2 0.0 0.8 3.33
G Senior 6'4" Brett Valentyn 5.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 105.5 13.2 15.5 19.0 50.0% ------------ 34.8% 100.0% 0.87 2.3 7.3 5.1 0.0 0.6 3.97


Belmont Team Statistics:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 112.6 (#26) 69.1 (#9) 20.0 (#50) 37.9 (#12) 38.0 (#38) 38.1 (#14) 52.4 (#6) 73.6 (#13) 13.2 (#68) 9.9 (#56)
Defense 90.7 (#15) 69.1 (#9) 27.6 (#1) 67.5 (#49) 45.9 (#67) 32.8 (#34) 44.1 (#25) 67.5 (#17) 9.8 (#42) 13.9 (#1)


Wisconsin Team Statistics:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 123.6 (#2) 57.6 (#68) 13.1 (#1) 34.6 (#34) 28.0 (#67) 37.1 (#20) 49.5 (#36) 82.4 (#1) 6.0 (#1) 6.5 (#3)
Defense 95.6 (#47) 57.6 (#68) 16.9 (#66) 72.6 (#4) 31.4 (#21) 37.5 (#68) 45.1 (#38) 75.0 (#68) 9.1 (#51) 6.0 (#68)


My Expectations:
1. Wisconsin turns it over less than 16% of the time. The best team at protecting the ball they've faced turns it over 19.1% of the time, the Badgers are unbelievably better than that.

2. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 35 points. Both shake off the ice from deep and make the Belmont bigs uncomfortable on the perimeter.

3. Wisconsin makes more free throws than Belmont attempts. Belmont fouls like mad in their attempts for steals.

4. Wisconsin grabs more than 74% of the defensive rebounding opportunities. Bo emphasizes the defensive boards to make sure Belmont doesn't get extra chances.


My Prediction: The Badgers shock the world, beating the sexy Cinderella pick, 72-60 in 58 possessions.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment