What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-60 Badger win in 57 possessions, with a 21% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 6-point Badger victory.
Wait Until Crean Gets His Guys:
Verdell Jones = Scout - #32 PG... Rivals - #26 PG, #126 overall
Nick Williams = Scout - #36 SG... Rivals - #34 SG, #145 overall... RSCI - #88
Maurice Creek = Scout - #11 SG... Rivals - #14 SG, #56 overall... RSCI - #58
Derek Elston = Scout - #24 PF... Rivals - #22 SF, #103 overall
Jordan Hulls = Scout - #8 PG... Rivals - #19 PG, #107 overall... RSCI - #74
Bawa Muniru = Rivals - #16 C, #112 overall
Christian Watford = Scout - #12 SF... Rivals - #6 SF, #41 overall... RSCI - #45
Will Sheehey = Scout - #45 SF... Rivals - #40 SG, #141 overall
Victor Oladipo = Rivals - #41 SG, #144 overall
So, what kind of players are Indiana fans waiting for? Remember kids, Tannin' Tom has only won 53% of his games without D-Wade.
Indiana Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'0" | Jordan Hulls | 33.7 | 12.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 114.6 | 19.7 | 17.1 | 100.0% | 55.4% | 36.8% | 47.8% | 1.82 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.52 |
| * G | 6'5" | Verdell Jones III | 29.7 | 12.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 102.5 | 26.2 | 18.6 | 71.7% | 43.7% | 43.3% | 22.6% | 3.98 | 0.9 | 13.5 | 24.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3.11 |
| * G | 6'5" | Jeremiah Rivers | 23.8 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 86.9 | 15.2 | 30.4 | 71.4% | 46.2% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 3.50 | 3.8 | 11.3 | 16.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.74 |
| * F | 6'8" | Christian Watford | 29.3 | 14.6 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 101.8 | 27.9 | 15.3 | 83.1% | 36.7% | 40.4% | 36.8% | 3.81 | 5.8 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3.88 |
| * F | 6'9" | Tom Pritchard | 19.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 133.9 | 9.3 | 14.8 | 54.5% | 66.7% | - | 0.0% | 3.06 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 6.69 |
| G | 6'5" | Victor Olapido | 19.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 112.1 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 70.6% | 58.5% | 33.3% | 18.8% | 6.38 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 4.95 |
| F | 6'9" | Derek Elston | 16.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 83.7 | 18.6 | 24.6 | 72.7% | 48.3% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 1.67 | 9.8 | 20.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6.13 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Will Sheehey | 16.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 101.7 | 20.1 | 15.8 | 68.4% | 48.4% | 33.3% | 19.5% | 2.47 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 6.23 |
| G | 6'3" | Matt Roth | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 119.4 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 36.0% | 94.3% | 0.38 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.59 |
| G | 5'10" | Daniel Moore | 6.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 63.7 | 10.7 | 42.8 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 2.50 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 6.83 |
| F | 6'9" | Bobby Capobianco | 5.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 63.6 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 0.0% | 25.0% | - | 0.0% | 2.50 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 9.27 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 37.6 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 130.8 | 28.8 | 7.4 | 83.9% | 48.8% | 42.1% | 37.4% | 4.58 | 2.8 | 13.4 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.77 |
| * G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 28.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 129.0 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 76.9% | 58.1% | 37.5% | 43.6% | 2.36 | 5.4 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.22 |
| * F/G | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 25.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 130.4 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 100.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | 89.1% | 3.04 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.75 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 35.3 | 18.5 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 110.8 | 30.6 | 11.4 | 92.6% | 51.2% | 31.1% | 26.9% | 2.38 | 6.3 | 24.0 | 12.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.42 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 32.0 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 131.0 | 17.1 | 9.4 | 85.7% | 45.8% | 49.4% | 62.6% | 1.71 | 6.7 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 2.92 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 15.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 109.1 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 85.7% | 54.5% | 26.1% | 51.1% | 1.56 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.88 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 91.7 | 17.4 | 18.4 | 83.3% | 39.4% | - | 0.0% | 3.64 | 4.3 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.39 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 8.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.1 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 100.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 2.00 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.94 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 6.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 77.6 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 2.22 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 7.71 |
| G | 5'10" | Wquinton Smith | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 101.8 | 8.8 | 25.0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | - | 0.0% | 3.33 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 3.75 |
Indiana Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 102.8 (#9) | 63.6 (#4) | 19.0 (#8) | 30.8 (#6) | 30.5 (#7) | 34.4 (#7) | 48.4 (#9) | 76.4 (#3) | 13.1 (#11) | 9.3 (#9) |
| Defense | 112.2 (#10) | 63.6 (#4) | 17.8 (#5) | 68.3 (#9) | 54.8 (#11) | 39.4 (#10) | 49.4 (#6) | 70.3 (#2) | 5.8 (#11) | 8.3 (#7) |
Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 119.1 (#1) | 56.2 (#11) | 12.1 (#1) | 30.1 (#9) | 29.4 (#8) | 37.1 (#5) | 49.8 (#5) | 85.3 (#1) | 7.0 (#1) | 6.0 (#1) |
| Defense | 105.5 (#4) | 56.2 (#11) | 15.2 (#9) | 73.3 (#1) | 31.9 (#6) | 36.3 (#6) | 48.4 (#5) | 76.8 (#10) | 7.1 (#7) | 5.5 (#11) |
My Expectations:
1. The Badgers grab more than 33% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. The Hoosiers suck at defensive rebounding.
2. The Badgers shot better than 35% from deep. They generally are terrible from deep on the road, but Indiana is terrible at defending threes.
3. The Badgers have a free throw rate higher than 4 FTAs per 10 FGAs. Indiana fouls a lot.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 63-54 in 58 possessions.
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