Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Indiana Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: Thank you seniors. We'll miss you. The rest are on the road now, with 12-17 Indiana on the docket. With OSU's victory over Penn State last night, Wisconsin no longer has a chance at the Big Ten regular season title, so now the Badgers are playing for seed. If they win out, they could got a 2 seed, if they go 0-3, they could limp in with about a 5 or 6 seed.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-60 Badger win in 57 possessions, with a 21% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 6-point Badger victory.


Wait Until Crean Gets His Guys:
Verdell Jones = Scout - #32 PG... Rivals - #26 PG, #126 overall

Nick Williams = Scout - #36 SG... Rivals - #34 SG, #145 overall... RSCI - #88

Maurice Creek = Scout - #11 SG... Rivals - #14 SG, #56 overall... RSCI - #58

Derek Elston = Scout - #24 PF... Rivals - #22 SF, #103 overall

Jordan Hulls = Scout - #8 PG... Rivals - #19 PG, #107 overall... RSCI - #74

Bawa Muniru = Rivals - #16 C, #112 overall

Christian Watford = Scout - #12 SF... Rivals - #6 SF, #41 overall... RSCI - #45

Will Sheehey = Scout - #45 SF... Rivals - #40 SG, #141 overall

Victor Oladipo = Rivals - #41 SG, #144 overall

So, what kind of players are Indiana fans waiting for? Remember kids, Tannin' Tom has only won 53% of his games without D-Wade.


Indiana Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G 6'0" Jordan Hulls 33.7 12.8 2.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 114.6 19.7 17.1 100.0% 55.4% 36.8% 47.8% 1.82 1.1 8.2 17.7 0.2 1.2 2.52
* G 6'5" Verdell Jones III 29.7 12.8 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.4 102.5 26.2 18.6 71.7% 43.7% 43.3% 22.6% 3.98 0.9 13.5 24.9 1.6 1.1 3.11
* G 6'5" Jeremiah Rivers 23.8 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.1 86.9 15.2 30.4 71.4% 46.2% 12.5% 13.3% 3.50 3.8 11.3 16.6 0.6 2.9 4.74
* F 6'8" Christian Watford 29.3 14.6 5.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 101.8 27.9 15.3 83.1% 36.7% 40.4% 36.8% 3.81 5.8 17.4 4.8 1.6 1.3 3.88
* F 6'9" Tom Pritchard 19.8 3.4 4.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 133.9 9.3 14.8 54.5% 66.7% - 0.0% 3.06 11.6 14.7 5.5 2.7 0.7 6.69
G 6'5" Victor Olapido 19.2 7.9 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 112.1 22.1 18.5 70.6% 58.5% 33.3% 18.8% 6.38 8.0 14.8 8.7 1.6 2.4 4.95
F 6'9" Derek Elston 16.3 4.0 3.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 83.7 18.6 24.6 72.7% 48.3% 0.0% 12.1% 1.67 9.8 20.9 0.8 0.9 1.6 6.13
G/F 6'6" Will Sheehey 16.1 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 101.7 20.1 15.8 68.4% 48.4% 33.3% 19.5% 2.47 7.1 8.1 6.0 1.4 1.9 6.23
G 6'3" Matt Roth 8.7 3.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 119.4 18.1 2.5 100.0% 0.0% 36.0% 94.3% 0.38 1.7 7.4 6.3 0.0 0.4 2.59
G 5'10" Daniel Moore 6.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 63.7 10.7 42.8 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 2.50 1.4 7.9 13.0 0.0 4.6 6.83
F 6'9" Bobby Capobianco 5.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 63.6 4.6 33.3 0.0% 25.0% - 0.0% 2.50 2.9 11.1 4.2 1.5 1.5 9.27


Wisconsin Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G 6'1" Jordan Taylor 37.6 19.9 4.3 5.1 0.7 0.1 130.8 28.8 7.4 83.9% 48.8% 42.1% 37.4% 4.58 2.8 13.4 33.9 0.2 1.2 2.77
* G 6'3" Josh Gasser 28.1 4.9 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.1 129.0 11.7 15.7 76.9% 58.1% 37.5% 43.6% 2.36 5.4 14.9 18.0 0.2 1.0 3.22
* F/G 6'6" Tim Jarmusz 25.9 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 130.4 9.6 9.4 100.0% 40.0% 34.1% 89.1% 3.04 5.5 5.8 8.8 0.3 1.2 1.75
* F 6'10" Jon Leuer 35.3 18.5 7.6 1.6 0.4 0.5 110.8 30.6 11.4 92.6% 51.2% 31.1% 26.9% 2.38 6.3 24.0 12.3 1.5 0.8 2.42
* F 6'8" Keaton Nankivil 32.0 11.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 1.1 131.0 17.1 9.4 85.7% 45.8% 49.4% 62.6% 1.71 6.7 13.1 4.2 4.1 1.0 2.92
F 6'6" Mike Bruesewitz 15.8 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 109.1 14.9 16.0 85.7% 54.5% 26.1% 51.1% 1.56 9.1 7.2 8.6 0.9 1.4 3.88
G/F 6'6" Ryan Evans 10.3 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 91.7 17.4 18.4 83.3% 39.4% - 0.0% 3.64 4.3 14.7 4.0 2.2 1.8 4.39
G/F 6'4" Rob Wilson 8.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 50.1 15.1 15.7 100.0% 22.2% 0.0% 55.0% 2.00 1.5 9.6 6.2 0.0 0.7 4.94
F/C 6'10" Jared Berggren 6.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 77.6 15.3 11.1 50.0% 41.7% 0.0% 33.3% 2.22 6.6 13.6 4.7 9.7 0.0 7.71
G 5'10" Wquinton Smith 4.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 101.8 8.8 25.0 0.0% 33.3% - 0.0% 3.33 4.2 4.4 17.7 0.0 2.2 3.75


Indiana Big Ten Stats:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 102.8 (#9) 63.6 (#4) 19.0 (#8) 30.8 (#6) 30.5 (#7) 34.4 (#7) 48.4 (#9) 76.4 (#3) 13.1 (#11) 9.3 (#9)
Defense 112.2 (#10) 63.6 (#4) 17.8 (#5) 68.3 (#9) 54.8 (#11) 39.4 (#10) 49.4 (#6) 70.3 (#2) 5.8 (#11) 8.3 (#7)


Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 119.1 (#1) 56.2 (#11) 12.1 (#1) 30.1 (#9) 29.4 (#8) 37.1 (#5) 49.8 (#5) 85.3 (#1) 7.0 (#1) 6.0 (#1)
Defense 105.5 (#4) 56.2 (#11) 15.2 (#9) 73.3 (#1) 31.9 (#6) 36.3 (#6) 48.4 (#5) 76.8 (#10) 7.1 (#7) 5.5 (#11)


My Expectations:
1. The Badgers grab more than 33% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. The Hoosiers suck at defensive rebounding.

2. The Badgers shot better than 35% from deep. They generally are terrible from deep on the road, but Indiana is terrible at defending threes.

3. The Badgers have a free throw rate higher than 4 FTAs per 10 FGAs. Indiana fouls a lot.


My Prediction: The Badgers win 63-54 in 58 possessions.

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