Opening Comments: UW beat Boston College 65 to 55. BC is not expected to do well in the ACC this year, but beating an ACC team always feels good.
Summarizing the game in a few words: UW got extra shots due to a ridiculously low 3 turnovers and two extra offensive rebounds and made enough inside the arc to compensate for a terrible long range shooting day.
Pace: The game had 55 possessions, the fewest this year. We started out with zippier games, but things have become more deliberate in Florida. The first three games were in the mid 60’s, now we are in the mid 50’s.
I do not assign a “quality” to pace. There is not good pace or bad pace. It is what it is. But, it is important to know the pace to determine how the game went.
Efficiency: Was it good offense or good defense? UW displayed excellent offense (or poor BC defense) by scoring 1.18 PPP. UW gave up 1.00 PPP to BC. We are usually closer to .90, so that was mediocre defense, I would think. BC’s late run really helped their PPP.
Shooting: UW continued our abysmal three point shooting hitting a season low 19%, but more than made up inside the arc.
eFG%: UW hit 48% to our opponent’s 43%. Our opponents have been at 46% and we have been at 51%.
3 pt shooting: UW lost the quantity and quality battle to BC. BC took 8 more threes (24 to UW’s 16) and made an extra 4 (BC made 7 and UW made only 3). That gave BC plus 12 outside the arc.
2pt shooting: BC hit a reasonable 47% of their two point shots – 14 of 30. But, UW took more, 41, made a higher percentage, 56%, and netted an extra 9 baskets (UW made 23, BC 14). [When I say “netted,” I mean netted like an accountants “net” as in totaled. Nankivil “netted” another one, but it did not go through the net, the basketball net, remarkably.] That gave UW an extra 18 points inside the arc. Of the 46 points UW scored inside the arc, 32 were in the paint and 14 midrange. UW outscored BC by 14 points inside the paint.
1pt shooting: BC hit 6 of 7 free throws for an excellent 86%. But, UW tried 13, 6 more, and made 10, 4 more. BC had better quality, but was trumped by UW’s superior quantity.
Rebounding: Rebounding was more or less a draw, with UW having only a slightly better day.
UW Defensive end: UW gathered 68% of BC’s misses, thus giving BC 32%. That is a lot for a Bo Ryan coached team, but close to the national average of 33%.
UW Offensive End: UW did well on the offensive boards, getting 36% of our misses. Crashing the boards has been good this year, although the Manhattan game not so much. The trend to date is that UW is more aggressive on the offensive glass than previous years. The Manhattan 31% is the low water mark during the first 5 games.
Turnovers: The good news for BC was they protected the ball well giving it up only 9 times, or16% of the time. The national average is about 21%. The bad news for BC is UW only gave it up 3 times, or 5%. So, the turnover margin went heavily in UW’s favor with a plus 6.
Opportunity Index: UW had a healthy plus 8 OI margin. UW had 2 extra offensive rebounds and plus 6 turnovers. UW had plus four points off turnovers (10 to 6) and plus 5 second chance points (16 to 11). That is about the margin in the game.
Fouls: BC fouled 17 times to UW’s scant 9. Those 8 extra fouls translated ultimately into only 4 points at the line. So, fouling was hardly the main story.
Playing time: Bo played 8 players and they all had double digit minutes. Taylor (36), Leuer (35) and Gasser (31) had the most minutes. Jarmusz chipped in starter-like 24 from the bench. Berggren and Brust did not make it into the game.
In my Manhattan write up I incorrectly said they would be playing 3 games in three days. They get tomorrow off and will play again on Sunday. So, they should get some rest for tired legs.
Notable Performances: Leuer had a nice line (no surprise). He scored 18 on 12 FGA’s and 4 FTA’s. Throw in 7 rebounds, 3 blocked shots and no turnovers and you have one great player. Jon, once again, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.
Taylor scored 14 after an off day with Manhattan. But, his main contribution was defense on Reggie Jackson. Jackson outscored Taylor 18 to 14, but Jackson needed 21 shots and 4 FTA’s to get his 18 points. Jackson also had three turnovers to Taylor’s rock-solid one. Jackson used 24 possessions to get 18 points while Taylor got 14 with 14 possessions.
It was nice to see Rob Wilson make an offensive contribution. He scored 8 on 6 shots and snared two rebounds (one turnover) in 13 minutes. My people are discussing your exploits and are hoping for more opportunities.
Nankivil got 6 points and 7 rebounds.
The most impressive thing about Gasser is how I hardly notice him. He had a quiet 8 points. It is hard to imagine he is a freshman. One might think a freshman would stand out as being mistake prone or lost on the court. He played 31 minutes without a turnover. Remarkable.
Grading Shetown’s Predictions
1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers ruin the Eagles' sparkling interior defensive stats. Hit. UW got 32.
2. The Badgers knock down more than 8 threes. BC isn't good defending the arc and I think the Badgers make up for the bad shooting against Manhattan. Miss. UW was 3-16. Ugh. I fully believe the shots will start falling.
3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy. Granted I'm not sure how much longer it will stay if refs keep calling over the back on Bruiser, Leuer, Nankivil, and Gasser. Miss. UW got 36%, which is very good. Forty percent was an aggressive prediction, however. I admire your moxie.
4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Eagles attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues. Hit. UW made 10 and BC tried 7. For the year, we are making our drinking game goal of making more free throws than our opponents attempt. I have us a at a plus 9.
Badgers clip the Eagles 71-62 in 60 possessions. Hit, but scaled back 7%. UW won 65-55 in 55 possessions.
Closing Thoughts: I was hoping to make a bad pun about BC (school and time period) and the stone age (maybe laying bricks) but nothing really jumped out.
The end of the game was quite frustrating, but we still had a nice win.
Beating a BE team, ND, on Sunday would put a nice cap on a successful weekend.
Showing posts with label Boston College Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston College Game. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Boston College Pre-Game Analysis
Opening Thoughts: Not the prettiest of games yesterday, but a win is a win. Hopefully they got the bad shooting out of their system because up next is Boston College. Their new head coach doesn't bring up good memories for Badger fans... Steve Donahue from last year's Cornell team. And this Boston College team runs the same offense and jacks as many 3s as that team did. Luckily, his roster isn't fit for the style quite yet.
What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.
Manhattan Likely Rotation (First 4 Games Statistics)
*G – 6’3” JR Reggie Jackson (19.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 126.7 OR, 28% Poss, 31% Shot, 10% TO, 2.5 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’1” SR Biko Paris (7.2 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.8 RPG, 86.0 OR, 17% Poss, 17% Shot, 25% TO, 1.7 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’6” FR Danny Rubin (9.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 122.3 OR, 18% Poss, 25% Shot, 6% TO, 1.9 FTR, 71% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Joe Trapani (13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 105.4 OR, 27% Poss, 28% Shot, 29% TO, 5.6 FTR, 35% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Cortney Dunn (2.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, 106.0 OR, 12% Poss, 6% Shot, 27% TO, 12.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’6” SR Corey Raji (13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 150.2 OR, 22% Poss, 19% Shot, 8% TO, 8.5 FTR, 31% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” JR Dallas Elmore (2.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 74.6 OR, 12% Poss, 9% Shot, 33% TO, 5.0 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)
C – 6’10” SR Josh Southern (3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 RPG, 149.9 OR, 13% Poss, 7% Shot, 14% TO, 8.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’2” FR Gabriel Moton (1.5 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 108.1 OR, 12% Poss, 15% Shot, 0% TO, 0.0 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)
PLAYER TRAITS (with revisions from suggestions)
THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Jeff Jordan (<28%)
Joe Trapani = 27%
Biko Paris = 25%
Dallas Elmore = 0%
Gabriel Moton = 0%
Trevon Hughes (35-38%)
Corey Raji = 38%
Reggie Jackson = 36%
Clayton Hanson (+38%)
Danny Rubin = 47%
TWO-POINT SHOOTING
Kevin Gullikson (<43%)
Biko Paris = 43%
Joe Trapani = 43%
Dallas Elmore = 33%
Marcus Landry (50-54%)
Danny Rubin = 50%
Mike Wilkinson (+54%)
Gabriel Moton = 100%
Cortney Dunn = 80%
Corey Raji = 78%
Josh Southern = 67%
Reggie Jackson = 59%
FREE THROW SHOOTING
Alando Tucker (<65%)
Danny Rubin = 50%
Cortney Dunn = 33%
Kam Taylor (75-82%)
Corey Raji 82%
Joe Trapani = 79%
Jason Bohannon (+82%)
Biko Paris = 100%
Dallas Elmore = 100%
Reggie Jackson = 93%
Josh Southern = 83%
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)
Corey Raji = 18%
Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)
Joe Trapani = 22%
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Brian Butch (9-12%)
Gabriel Moton = 9%
Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)
Corey Raji = 16%
STEALING
Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)
Reggie Jackson = 4.2%
Mike Kelley (+4.4%)
None
BLOCKING
Brian Butch (3-7%)
Josh Southern = 3.6%
Joe Trapani = 3.1%
Greg Stiemsma (+7%)
Cortney Dunn = 8%
ASSISTS
Devin Harris (20-25%)
Josh Southern = 22%
Jordan Taylor (25-30%)
None
Demetri McCamey (+30%)
Reggie Jackson = 34%
POSSESSION USAGE
Jason Chappell (<15%)
Josh Southern = 13%
Dallas Elmore = 12%
Cortney Dunn = 12%
Brian Butch (24-28%)
Reggie Jackson = 28%
Joe Trapani = 27%
Alando Tucker (+28%)
None
This still isn’t set in stone… if you think I should use different players (Badgers or other Big Ten), feel free to suggest them so I don’t have Butch, Kelley, Tucker, and Hughes multiple times. For those questioning, all of the players had numbers in their range for either their entire career or their upperclassmen seasons. For example, Mike Kelley averaged a 4.5% steal rate with a high of 5.9 his junior year and Trevon Hughes shot 36% from three for his career with a high of almost 40% his senior year.
What Manhattan is really good at:
1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 3 turnovers per 23 possessions, which is good for 3rd in the nation.
2. Shooting 1s and 2s. They have shot 56.7% (23rd) from inside the arc so far this season and 80% (11th) from the line.
3. Defending the paint. They have surrendered a measly 42% inside the arc, good for 60th in the nation.
4. Keeping the opponent off the charity stripe. Their opponents attempt about 3 FTAs per 10 FGAs. That's 36th lowest in the country.
5. Blocking shots. As shown by the Brian Butchs and Greg Stiemsma in the blocking trait, BC blocks about one out of every eight 2-point attempts by their opponent, good for 83rd in the country.
What Manhattan is really bad at:
1. Offensive Rebounding. They have grabbed only 29% of all the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 251st in the nation.
2. Shooting 3s. They take 42% of their shots from behind the arc, but only make 29.5% of them (257th). This is similar to John Belein's Michigan teams.
3. Defending the arc. They have surrendered a sizzling 40% outside the arc, good for 293rd in the nation. Wisconsin has given up 40% as well.
Relative Efficiency:
When Boston College has the ball: They have scored a great 1.14 PPP this season, while UW has given up a stingy 0.85 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 0.98 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.21 this season.
Pace: Boston College has played at 62 possessions per game to UW’s 62.
My expectations:
1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers ruin the Eagles' sparkling interior defensive stats.
2. The Badgers knock down more than 8 threes. BC isn't good defending the arc and I think the Badgers make up for the bad shooting against Manhattan.
3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy. Granted I'm not sure how much longer it will stay if refs keep calling over the back on Bruiser, Leuer, Nankivil, and Gasser.
4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Eagles attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues.
Badgers clip the Eagles 71-62 in 60 possessions.
What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.
Manhattan Likely Rotation (First 4 Games Statistics)
*G – 6’3” JR Reggie Jackson (19.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 126.7 OR, 28% Poss, 31% Shot, 10% TO, 2.5 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’1” SR Biko Paris (7.2 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.8 RPG, 86.0 OR, 17% Poss, 17% Shot, 25% TO, 1.7 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’6” FR Danny Rubin (9.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 122.3 OR, 18% Poss, 25% Shot, 6% TO, 1.9 FTR, 71% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Joe Trapani (13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 105.4 OR, 27% Poss, 28% Shot, 29% TO, 5.6 FTR, 35% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Cortney Dunn (2.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, 106.0 OR, 12% Poss, 6% Shot, 27% TO, 12.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’6” SR Corey Raji (13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 150.2 OR, 22% Poss, 19% Shot, 8% TO, 8.5 FTR, 31% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” JR Dallas Elmore (2.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 74.6 OR, 12% Poss, 9% Shot, 33% TO, 5.0 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)
C – 6’10” SR Josh Southern (3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 RPG, 149.9 OR, 13% Poss, 7% Shot, 14% TO, 8.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’2” FR Gabriel Moton (1.5 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 108.1 OR, 12% Poss, 15% Shot, 0% TO, 0.0 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)
PLAYER TRAITS (with revisions from suggestions)
THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Jeff Jordan (<28%)
Joe Trapani = 27%
Biko Paris = 25%
Dallas Elmore = 0%
Gabriel Moton = 0%
Trevon Hughes (35-38%)
Corey Raji = 38%
Reggie Jackson = 36%
Clayton Hanson (+38%)
Danny Rubin = 47%
TWO-POINT SHOOTING
Kevin Gullikson (<43%)
Biko Paris = 43%
Joe Trapani = 43%
Dallas Elmore = 33%
Marcus Landry (50-54%)
Danny Rubin = 50%
Mike Wilkinson (+54%)
Gabriel Moton = 100%
Cortney Dunn = 80%
Corey Raji = 78%
Josh Southern = 67%
Reggie Jackson = 59%
FREE THROW SHOOTING
Alando Tucker (<65%)
Danny Rubin = 50%
Cortney Dunn = 33%
Kam Taylor (75-82%)
Corey Raji 82%
Joe Trapani = 79%
Jason Bohannon (+82%)
Biko Paris = 100%
Dallas Elmore = 100%
Reggie Jackson = 93%
Josh Southern = 83%
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)
Corey Raji = 18%
Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)
Joe Trapani = 22%
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Brian Butch (9-12%)
Gabriel Moton = 9%
Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)
Corey Raji = 16%
STEALING
Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)
Reggie Jackson = 4.2%
Mike Kelley (+4.4%)
None
BLOCKING
Brian Butch (3-7%)
Josh Southern = 3.6%
Joe Trapani = 3.1%
Greg Stiemsma (+7%)
Cortney Dunn = 8%
ASSISTS
Devin Harris (20-25%)
Josh Southern = 22%
Jordan Taylor (25-30%)
None
Demetri McCamey (+30%)
Reggie Jackson = 34%
POSSESSION USAGE
Jason Chappell (<15%)
Josh Southern = 13%
Dallas Elmore = 12%
Cortney Dunn = 12%
Brian Butch (24-28%)
Reggie Jackson = 28%
Joe Trapani = 27%
Alando Tucker (+28%)
None
This still isn’t set in stone… if you think I should use different players (Badgers or other Big Ten), feel free to suggest them so I don’t have Butch, Kelley, Tucker, and Hughes multiple times. For those questioning, all of the players had numbers in their range for either their entire career or their upperclassmen seasons. For example, Mike Kelley averaged a 4.5% steal rate with a high of 5.9 his junior year and Trevon Hughes shot 36% from three for his career with a high of almost 40% his senior year.
What Manhattan is really good at:
1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 3 turnovers per 23 possessions, which is good for 3rd in the nation.
2. Shooting 1s and 2s. They have shot 56.7% (23rd) from inside the arc so far this season and 80% (11th) from the line.
3. Defending the paint. They have surrendered a measly 42% inside the arc, good for 60th in the nation.
4. Keeping the opponent off the charity stripe. Their opponents attempt about 3 FTAs per 10 FGAs. That's 36th lowest in the country.
5. Blocking shots. As shown by the Brian Butchs and Greg Stiemsma in the blocking trait, BC blocks about one out of every eight 2-point attempts by their opponent, good for 83rd in the country.
What Manhattan is really bad at:
1. Offensive Rebounding. They have grabbed only 29% of all the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 251st in the nation.
2. Shooting 3s. They take 42% of their shots from behind the arc, but only make 29.5% of them (257th). This is similar to John Belein's Michigan teams.
3. Defending the arc. They have surrendered a sizzling 40% outside the arc, good for 293rd in the nation. Wisconsin has given up 40% as well.
Relative Efficiency:
When Boston College has the ball: They have scored a great 1.14 PPP this season, while UW has given up a stingy 0.85 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 0.98 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.21 this season.
Pace: Boston College has played at 62 possessions per game to UW’s 62.
My expectations:
1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers ruin the Eagles' sparkling interior defensive stats.
2. The Badgers knock down more than 8 threes. BC isn't good defending the arc and I think the Badgers make up for the bad shooting against Manhattan.
3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy. Granted I'm not sure how much longer it will stay if refs keep calling over the back on Bruiser, Leuer, Nankivil, and Gasser.
4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Eagles attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues.
Badgers clip the Eagles 71-62 in 60 possessions.
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