Friday, November 26, 2010

Boston College Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Not the prettiest of games yesterday, but a win is a win. Hopefully they got the bad shooting out of their system because up next is Boston College. Their new head coach doesn't bring up good memories for Badger fans... Steve Donahue from last year's Cornell team. And this Boston College team runs the same offense and jacks as many 3s as that team did. Luckily, his roster isn't fit for the style quite yet.


What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.


Manhattan Likely Rotation (First 4 Games Statistics)
*G – 6’3” JR Reggie Jackson (19.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 126.7 OR, 28% Poss, 31% Shot, 10% TO, 2.5 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’1” SR Biko Paris (7.2 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.8 RPG, 86.0 OR, 17% Poss, 17% Shot, 25% TO, 1.7 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’6” FR Danny Rubin (9.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 122.3 OR, 18% Poss, 25% Shot, 6% TO, 1.9 FTR, 71% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” SR Joe Trapani (13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 105.4 OR, 27% Poss, 28% Shot, 29% TO, 5.6 FTR, 35% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” SR Cortney Dunn (2.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, 106.0 OR, 12% Poss, 6% Shot, 27% TO, 12.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’6” SR Corey Raji (13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 150.2 OR, 22% Poss, 19% Shot, 8% TO, 8.5 FTR, 31% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’5” JR Dallas Elmore (2.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 74.6 OR, 12% Poss, 9% Shot, 33% TO, 5.0 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)

C – 6’10” SR Josh Southern (3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 RPG, 149.9 OR, 13% Poss, 7% Shot, 14% TO, 8.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’2” FR Gabriel Moton (1.5 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 108.1 OR, 12% Poss, 15% Shot, 0% TO, 0.0 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)


PLAYER TRAITS (with revisions from suggestions)

THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Jeff Jordan (<28%)
Joe Trapani = 27%
Biko Paris = 25%
Dallas Elmore = 0%
Gabriel Moton = 0%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)
Corey Raji = 38%
Reggie Jackson = 36%

Clayton Hanson (+38%)
Danny Rubin = 47%


TWO-POINT SHOOTING
Kevin Gullikson (<43%)
Biko Paris = 43%
Joe Trapani = 43%
Dallas Elmore = 33%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)
Danny Rubin = 50%

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)
Gabriel Moton = 100%
Cortney Dunn = 80%
Corey Raji = 78%
Josh Southern = 67%
Reggie Jackson = 59%


FREE THROW SHOOTING
Alando Tucker (<65%)
Danny Rubin = 50%
Cortney Dunn = 33%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)
Corey Raji 82%
Joe Trapani = 79%

Jason Bohannon (+82%)
Biko Paris = 100%
Dallas Elmore = 100%
Reggie Jackson = 93%
Josh Southern = 83%


DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)
Corey Raji = 18%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)
Joe Trapani = 22%


OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Brian Butch (9-12%)
Gabriel Moton = 9%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)
Corey Raji = 16%


STEALING
Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)
Reggie Jackson = 4.2%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)
None


BLOCKING
Brian Butch (3-7%)
Josh Southern = 3.6%
Joe Trapani = 3.1%

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)
Cortney Dunn = 8%


ASSISTS
Devin Harris (20-25%)
Josh Southern = 22%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)
None

Demetri McCamey (+30%)
Reggie Jackson = 34%


POSSESSION USAGE
Jason Chappell (<15%)
Josh Southern = 13%
Dallas Elmore = 12%
Cortney Dunn = 12%

Brian Butch (24-28%)
Reggie Jackson = 28%
Joe Trapani = 27%

Alando Tucker (+28%)
None

This still isn’t set in stone… if you think I should use different players (Badgers or other Big Ten), feel free to suggest them so I don’t have Butch, Kelley, Tucker, and Hughes multiple times. For those questioning, all of the players had numbers in their range for either their entire career or their upperclassmen seasons. For example, Mike Kelley averaged a 4.5% steal rate with a high of 5.9 his junior year and Trevon Hughes shot 36% from three for his career with a high of almost 40% his senior year.


What Manhattan is really good at:

1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 3 turnovers per 23 possessions, which is good for 3rd in the nation.

2. Shooting 1s and 2s. They have shot 56.7% (23rd) from inside the arc so far this season and 80% (11th) from the line.

3. Defending the paint. They have surrendered a measly 42% inside the arc, good for 60th in the nation.

4. Keeping the opponent off the charity stripe. Their opponents attempt about 3 FTAs per 10 FGAs. That's 36th lowest in the country.

5. Blocking shots. As shown by the Brian Butchs and Greg Stiemsma in the blocking trait, BC blocks about one out of every eight 2-point attempts by their opponent, good for 83rd in the country.


What Manhattan is really bad at:

1. Offensive Rebounding. They have grabbed only 29% of all the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 251st in the nation.

2. Shooting 3s. They take 42% of their shots from behind the arc, but only make 29.5% of them (257th). This is similar to John Belein's Michigan teams.

3. Defending the arc. They have surrendered a sizzling 40% outside the arc, good for 293rd in the nation. Wisconsin has given up 40% as well.


Relative Efficiency:

When Boston College has the ball: They have scored a great 1.14 PPP this season, while UW has given up a stingy 0.85 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 0.98 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.21 this season.


Pace: Boston College has played at 62 possessions per game to UW’s 62.


My expectations:

1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers ruin the Eagles' sparkling interior defensive stats.

2. The Badgers knock down more than 8 threes. BC isn't good defending the arc and I think the Badgers make up for the bad shooting against Manhattan.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. This is becoming more than an early season anomaly. It’s a change in strategy. Granted I'm not sure how much longer it will stay if refs keep calling over the back on Bruiser, Leuer, Nankivil, and Gasser.

4. The Badgers make more free throws than the Eagles attempt. This lovely stat has made a comeback this season and I think it continues.

Badgers clip the Eagles 71-62 in 60 possessions.

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