Opening Comments: The Badgers are very good. The Hawkeyes are very bad. I cannot read Iowa’s numbers on their uniforms. Whoever thought putting black numbers on a black uniform was a good idea is an idiot.
Summarizing the game in a few words: UW was very efficient in all phases (shooting, protecting the ball, rebounding), Iowa was not.
Pace: The game had 54 possessions, 6th lowest of the season.
Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? Both.
Iowa scored at .74 PPP. That is very poor and 7th worst against us this year.
UW lit them up with 1.24 PPP, our 6th best of the year. It nudged our conference average up to 1.10.
Shooting: UW won the quality battles in all phases of shooting against the defenseless Hawkeyes. UW took only 24% of their FGA’s from beyond the arc, our third fewest of the year.
eFG%: UW had a great day shooting. Our eFG% was 61% to Iowa’s 41%.
3 pt shooting: Iowa was 3-15 (20%) from the arc. UW was 6-12, 50% from deep. UW outscored them by 9 points at the arc.
2pt shooting: Iowa was less inept from inside the arc. They scored 13 times on 28 chances, 46% shooting. UW got 22 on 39 chances, 56%. UW picked up another 18 inside the arc.
1pt shooting: UW’s free throw defense has really improved as the season has worn on. Iowa shot 5 of 10 from the line whereas UW was 5 of 6 – a tie despite 67% more opportunities for the Hawkeyes.
Rebounding: UW did well on both their defensive and offensive glass.
UW Defensive end: There were 30 rebounding chances and UW got 25 of them, which is 83% -- 8th best this year.
UW Offensive End: UW shot better and had fewer rebounding chances – 23 compared to Iowa’s 30. UW grabbed 8 of their misses, which is 35% -- slightly higher than the national average and better than average for UW.
That’s +3 in the offensive rebounds category.
Turnovers: Iowa had 12 for 22%, while UW had 7 for 13% -- both numbers are fairly close to average percentages for each respective team. That’s +5 in the turnover category.
Opportunity Index: UW was a +8 (+3 offensive rebounds, +5 turnovers).
Quantity and Quality: UW won both battles handily (and thus the game).
Iowa took 8 fewer FGA’s (51 to 43) but got to the line more (10 to 6) which still favors Bucky. The quality was heavily in UW’s favor: eFG% +20 and FT% +33.
Fouls: Iowa fouled only 6 times (!) and UW only 10 (!). They were lettin’ em’ play out there
Playing time: Bo played 8 more than 10 minutes with RE playing 12; RW 14; and TJ 10. Bruiser played 7 and there was a rare IM on the floor sighting. Iowa played 7 more than 10 with one more playing 9.
Notable Performances: Trevon and JBo, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people. Thanks for the memories.
Leuer tried to steal the spotlight though, as Jon ended 10 possessions with 18 points -- plus 5 boards, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. Exploits... campfires... people...
Grading Shetown’s Predictions
1. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 25 points. Iowa’s tiny front-court won’t have a chance against Nankivil and Leuer. Miss. In your typical near miss fashion, they scored 24 but used only 15 possessions to get them.
2. Badgers grab more than 79% of the rebounds on the defensive end and more than 35% on offensive. The Badgers’ size advantage pays dividends here too. Miss. UW got 83% defensive, but in your near miss fashion, they got 35% offensive.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately and I think they overcome Iowa’s good defending of it. Hit. UW got 50% (6 of 12).
My Prediction: The Badgers win 68-49 in 59 possessions, making a nice start to March. Hit. 67-40 in 54.
Closing Thoughts: On to Illinois. That game will mean everything to IU. We have a great chance to ruin their party.
Showing posts with label Iowa Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Game. Show all posts
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Iowa Pre-Game Analysis
Opening Thoughts: Tomorrow night, the Badgers take on the Hawkeyes of Iowa. Iowa comes into the game with a record of 10-19 and 4-12 in the Big Ten. They are riding a 1-game winning streak and coming off a 73-57 victory over the hapless Hoosiers, but have lost 6 of their past 8.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and Iowa #163. He makes Wisconsin a 20-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and Iowa #140. He predicts a 67-49 Badger victory in 55 possessions and gives the Badgers a 97% chance of winning.
Iowa Rotation:
*G – 6’1” FR Cully Payne (8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 79% FT, 85.3 OR, 21% Poss, 19% Shot, 29% TO, 1% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 51% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Matt Gatens (12.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 83% FT, 34% 3PT, 99.2 OR, 22% Poss, 23% Shot, 21% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.2 FTR, 52% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” FR Eric May (9.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 55% 2PT, 94.1 OR, 19% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 5% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.4 FTR, 55% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’6” SO Aaron Fuller (9.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 52%, 105.3 OR, 24% Poss, 24% Shot, 16% TO, 15% OffReb, 18% DefReb, 5.3 FTR, 15% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’7” JR Jarryd Cole (8.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 40% 3PT, 58% 2PT, 104.8 OR, 19% Poss, 18% Shot, 21% TO, 10% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 4.3 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” SR Devan Bawinkel (3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 114.4 OR, 10% Poss, 14% Shot, 10% TO, 0% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 0.7 FTR, 100% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” FR Brennan Cougill (4.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 53% 2PT, 106.7 OR, 16% Poss, 17% Shot, 19% TO, 10% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.2 FTR, 49% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
Out with the Old, In with the New (Alford’s Record vs. Lickliter’s Record)
Alford = .589 winning % (.476 Big Ten), 2 Big Ten tournament championships, 3 NCAA tournament appearances, 3 NIT tournament appearances
Lickliter = .408 winning % (.278 Big Ten), no conference championships, no post-season tournaments
What Iowa is really good at:
1. Defending threes. Their opponents shoot 29.7% from 3 in Big Ten play, which is 1st in the conference.
What Iowa is really bad at:
1. Three-point shooting. They shoot 30.8% from 3, which is 11th in the Big Ten.
2. Taking care of the ball. They turn it over 22.3% of their possessions, good for 10th in the Big Ten.
3. Forcing turnovers. The Hawkeyes force a turnover on only 17.8% of their opponents’ possessions, which is 9th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Iowa has the ball: Iowa has scored the second worst 0.96 PPP in their first 16 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.95 in their first 16.
When UW has the ball: Iowa has the fifth worst defensive PPP at 1.06 in their 16 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the league leading 1.09 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Pace: Iowa has played at 62 possessions per game so far in their 16 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Iowa Good Wins = … none
Iowa Bad Losses = Texas – San Antonio, Duquesne
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 25 points. Iowa’s tiny front-court won’t have a chance against Nankivil and Leuer.
2. Badgers grab more than 79% of the rebounds on the defensive end and more than 35% on offensive. The Badgers’ size advantage pays dividends here too.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately and I think they overcome Iowa’s good defending of it.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 68-49 in 59 possessions, making a nice start to March.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and Iowa #163. He makes Wisconsin a 20-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and Iowa #140. He predicts a 67-49 Badger victory in 55 possessions and gives the Badgers a 97% chance of winning.
Iowa Rotation:
*G – 6’1” FR Cully Payne (8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 79% FT, 85.3 OR, 21% Poss, 19% Shot, 29% TO, 1% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 51% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Matt Gatens (12.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 83% FT, 34% 3PT, 99.2 OR, 22% Poss, 23% Shot, 21% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.2 FTR, 52% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” FR Eric May (9.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 55% 2PT, 94.1 OR, 19% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 5% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.4 FTR, 55% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’6” SO Aaron Fuller (9.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 52%, 105.3 OR, 24% Poss, 24% Shot, 16% TO, 15% OffReb, 18% DefReb, 5.3 FTR, 15% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’7” JR Jarryd Cole (8.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 40% 3PT, 58% 2PT, 104.8 OR, 19% Poss, 18% Shot, 21% TO, 10% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 4.3 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” SR Devan Bawinkel (3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 114.4 OR, 10% Poss, 14% Shot, 10% TO, 0% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 0.7 FTR, 100% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” FR Brennan Cougill (4.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 53% 2PT, 106.7 OR, 16% Poss, 17% Shot, 19% TO, 10% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.2 FTR, 49% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
Out with the Old, In with the New (Alford’s Record vs. Lickliter’s Record)
Alford = .589 winning % (.476 Big Ten), 2 Big Ten tournament championships, 3 NCAA tournament appearances, 3 NIT tournament appearances
Lickliter = .408 winning % (.278 Big Ten), no conference championships, no post-season tournaments
What Iowa is really good at:
1. Defending threes. Their opponents shoot 29.7% from 3 in Big Ten play, which is 1st in the conference.
What Iowa is really bad at:
1. Three-point shooting. They shoot 30.8% from 3, which is 11th in the Big Ten.
2. Taking care of the ball. They turn it over 22.3% of their possessions, good for 10th in the Big Ten.
3. Forcing turnovers. The Hawkeyes force a turnover on only 17.8% of their opponents’ possessions, which is 9th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Iowa has the ball: Iowa has scored the second worst 0.96 PPP in their first 16 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.95 in their first 16.
When UW has the ball: Iowa has the fifth worst defensive PPP at 1.06 in their 16 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the league leading 1.09 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Pace: Iowa has played at 62 possessions per game so far in their 16 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Iowa Good Wins = … none
Iowa Bad Losses = Texas – San Antonio, Duquesne
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 25 points. Iowa’s tiny front-court won’t have a chance against Nankivil and Leuer.
2. Badgers grab more than 79% of the rebounds on the defensive end and more than 35% on offensive. The Badgers’ size advantage pays dividends here too.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately and I think they overcome Iowa’s good defending of it.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 68-49 in 59 possessions, making a nice start to March.
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