Opening Thoughts: Tomorrow night, the Badgers take on the Hawkeyes of Iowa. Iowa comes into the game with a record of 10-19 and 4-12 in the Big Ten. They are riding a 1-game winning streak and coming off a 73-57 victory over the hapless Hoosiers, but have lost 6 of their past 8.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and Iowa #163. He makes Wisconsin a 20-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and Iowa #140. He predicts a 67-49 Badger victory in 55 possessions and gives the Badgers a 97% chance of winning.
Iowa Rotation:
*G – 6’1” FR Cully Payne (8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 79% FT, 85.3 OR, 21% Poss, 19% Shot, 29% TO, 1% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 51% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Matt Gatens (12.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 83% FT, 34% 3PT, 99.2 OR, 22% Poss, 23% Shot, 21% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.2 FTR, 52% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” FR Eric May (9.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 55% 2PT, 94.1 OR, 19% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 5% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.4 FTR, 55% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’6” SO Aaron Fuller (9.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 52%, 105.3 OR, 24% Poss, 24% Shot, 16% TO, 15% OffReb, 18% DefReb, 5.3 FTR, 15% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’7” JR Jarryd Cole (8.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 40% 3PT, 58% 2PT, 104.8 OR, 19% Poss, 18% Shot, 21% TO, 10% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 4.3 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” SR Devan Bawinkel (3.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 114.4 OR, 10% Poss, 14% Shot, 10% TO, 0% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 0.7 FTR, 100% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” FR Brennan Cougill (4.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 38% 3PT, 53% 2PT, 106.7 OR, 16% Poss, 17% Shot, 19% TO, 10% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.2 FTR, 49% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
Out with the Old, In with the New (Alford’s Record vs. Lickliter’s Record)
Alford = .589 winning % (.476 Big Ten), 2 Big Ten tournament championships, 3 NCAA tournament appearances, 3 NIT tournament appearances
Lickliter = .408 winning % (.278 Big Ten), no conference championships, no post-season tournaments
What Iowa is really good at:
1. Defending threes. Their opponents shoot 29.7% from 3 in Big Ten play, which is 1st in the conference.
What Iowa is really bad at:
1. Three-point shooting. They shoot 30.8% from 3, which is 11th in the Big Ten.
2. Taking care of the ball. They turn it over 22.3% of their possessions, good for 10th in the Big Ten.
3. Forcing turnovers. The Hawkeyes force a turnover on only 17.8% of their opponents’ possessions, which is 9th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Iowa has the ball: Iowa has scored the second worst 0.96 PPP in their first 16 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.95 in their first 16.
When UW has the ball: Iowa has the fifth worst defensive PPP at 1.06 in their 16 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the league leading 1.09 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Pace: Iowa has played at 62 possessions per game so far in their 16 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 16 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Iowa Good Wins = … none
Iowa Bad Losses = Texas – San Antonio, Duquesne
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 25 points. Iowa’s tiny front-court won’t have a chance against Nankivil and Leuer.
2. Badgers grab more than 79% of the rebounds on the defensive end and more than 35% on offensive. The Badgers’ size advantage pays dividends here too.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately and I think they overcome Iowa’s good defending of it.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 68-49 in 59 possessions, making a nice start to March.
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