South Dakota Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW beat South Dakota by 15, 76 to 61. Once more, I was not able to see the game because of ESPN3. I would have thought we were done with those games, but no such luck. I am developing a real hatred for ESPN3. Why not put these games on BTN?

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW scored well and prevented SD from scoring from the field well, but curiously allowed SD to shoot 14 FTA’s (making 12) despite only committing 7 fouls.

Pace: The game had 63 possessions.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? UW’s offense was very good scoring1.21 PPP (Our average is at 1.18 not factoring for strength of schedule). However, the defense was not up to snuff allowing .97 PPP. We have been allowing an average of .87, so that is quite a bit more than average and not to be expected from a lesser opponent.

Shooting: UW shot well from the floor and did okay from the line. UW was able to dominate inside the arc and inside the paint. SD shot okay from three point range, poorly inside the arc, and well at the line.

eFG%: SD had an eFG% of 45%, the fourth best of our 8 opponents. We have been allowing 43% from our opponents. Meanwhile, UW hit at 55%, slightly better than the 52% we have registered this year.

3 pt shooting: Both teams hit 39% of their threes. That is good shooting. UW tried 13 extra attempts (31 to SD’s 18) and made 12 to DS’s 7. That gave UW a plus 15 points beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: SD was ineffective inside the arc. They hit a slightly lower percentage than outside the arc. SD tried 37 shots and made 14 for 38%.

UW tried 4 fewer shots and made 3 more shots inside the arc. UW was 17 of 33 for 52%. That gave UW an extra 6 points inside the arc to go with their 15 outside the arc for an extra 21 points from the floor.

UW outscored SD 26 to 12 in the paint.

1pt shooting: SD cleaned up at the line. SD was 12 of 14 for a robust 86%. UW did fine, 6 of 9 for 67%. SD was able to get back 6 of the 21 points they lost from the floor at the line, not enough to tip the balances.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 100 Opponent Attempts: 113 Difference: -13

UW lost ground in this regard. SD tried 14 and UW made 6. Let’s pick it up, boys.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 47% 34%

Mid Range 11% 26%

Paint 34% 20%

FT Line 8% 20%

UW has been getting 34% of our points from deep, so the pickings were good from deep (see Leuer’s performance). The low FT% is somewhat troubling, however.

Rebounding: UW did okay defending their glass but very well attacking on offense.

UW Defensive end: SD got 30% of their misses (10 of 33). Regular readers will remember the national average is 33% but UW typically excels by allowing their opponents closer to 26%.

UW Offensive End: UW continued to do well on the offensive glass. UW picked up 37% of their misses (14 of 38). This continues a trend this year of crashing the glass which is different than past years. It will be interesting to see if this continues against better competition.

Turnovers: UW won the turnover battle 12 to 9. In percentages, UW was at 14% and SD 19%. While 9 turnovers seems like a lot and Bo probably blew a fuse (Evans had 3 in 6 minutes), it is a good showing. Both teams had 16 points off of turnovers.

Opportunity Index: UW won the OI by +7. UW was plus 4 on offensive rebounds and plus 3 on turnovers. From a scoring perspective, UW and SD each had 16 off turnovers and UW was plus one in second chance points (8 to 7). So, UW did not make particularly good use of their extra opportunities, if the box score is to be believed.

Fouls: UW had about half the fouls as SD (13 to 7) but SD got to the line for 14 FTA’s and UW had only 9. That is an oddity. SD ended up fouling 6 times more but outscored UW at the line by 6. Weird.

Playing time: Bo used an odd substitution pattern. Only five players played 10 or more minutes. In other games against lesser competition, Bo has gone 8 or 9 deep. Leuer, Bruesewitz, and Taylor all played more than 30 minutes with Gasser right behind at 28. Nankivil only played 7. Why? Was he hurt? Match ups? Since I did not see the game, I don’t know.

Jarmusz played 27. Evans played only 6 minutes, but was able to turn it over 3 times in the short time period. Rob Wilson played 7. Brust got 6 and W’Q 3.

For SD, 8 played 10 or more minutes.

Notable Performances: Leuer had a great line, again. He scored 29 on 21 FGA (3 FTA’s) and picked up 9 boards. He was a great 6-11 from deep. With two offensive boards and one TO, Jon scored 29 points while using 21 (or maybe 22) possessions. He blocked 4 shots. Jon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Taylor scored 20 on 16 FGA’s and 4 FTA’s. He had 11 rebounds, four offensive and 9 assists to just miss a triple double. He had but one turnover in 39 minutes of work. Jordan, people, campfires, …

Keaton, as mentioned before, only played 7 minutes and was a forgettable 0-3 with one board.

Jarmusz and Gasser were a combined 2-9 from deep.

For SD, Westbrook scored 18 but needed 16 FGA’s and 4 FTA’s to get there. Add in 3 turnovers and his day was perhaps not as great as it might first appear.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Badgers shoot better than 57% inside the arc. The Badgers are much bigger and the stats would suggest that the Coyotes play super tight defense on the perimeter trying for steals and harassing shooters, but giving up easy drives to the hoop from being over-extended. Miss. UW was at 52%.

2. Josh Gasser explodes for more than 12 points. He has averaged a lowly 1.5 PPG in the past two games after 11.0 PPG through the first five. I like the aforementioned over-extended defense leading to some great driving opportunities for him. Miss. Gasser got 5.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 78% of the opportunities on defense. South Dakota is a terrible rebounding team and the Badgers aren’t. Miss. UW was at 37%.

4. The Badgers get back the “make more free throws than their opponents attempt” stat back for the season. If I recall correctly, it’s currently at -5, so I like them to be at least +6 on the night. Miss. We lost 8 to go to a minus 13.

The Badgers destroy the Coyotes 90-57 in 67 possessions. Hit, sort of. You predicted a 33 point win and it was 15 and used 5 fewer possessions.

Closing Thoughts: Leuer is really playing well. He can light up lesser competition. I hope he keeps it up come Big Ten time.

We must remember it is still early. There is almost a month before the B10 season starts. Bo has time to implement some improvements.

UW has a lot going for it right now. We have one of the better offenses in the nation, one of the better defenses, and a very good efficiency margin. Link. UW might have problems, but so do other teams.

UW is very good at avoiding turnovers, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, holding opponents to poor shooting averages, and keeping our opponents off the line.

South Dakota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: After that thrashing, the Badgers have another one on tap with the South Dakota Coyotes. If some of the names in their rotation are familiar, it’s because they’ve got some Wisconsin prep stars on their roster. Freshman Steve Tecker led Division 3 Northwestern to State last season and sophomore Jake Thomas led D-3 Racine St. Cats to the state title in 2009. Junior Charlie Westbrook attended Milwaukee Riverside and is a juco recruit from Iowa Western for South Dakota. The Coyotes enter the game at 3-4, with double-digit victories over South Dakota-School of Mines, Louisiana-Monroe, and Wyoming, and losses to Nebraska, Illinois State, Jacksonville State, and Marquette, an 82-69 decision.

Forums: Go Yotes

What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 83-54 Badger victory in 65 possessions, with a 1% chance of upset.

Sagarin predicts a 26-point Badger victory.

South Dakota Likely Rotation (First 6 Games Statistics)

*G – 6’0” SR Kendall Cutler (5.7 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 87.2 OR, 20% Poss, 12% Shot, 35% TO, 6.3 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’1” JR Louie Krogman (15.0 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 117.6 OR, 23% Poss, 27% Shot, 10% TO, 2.1 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’4” JR Charlie Westbrook (15.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 APG, 104.6 OR, 25% Poss, 28% Shot, 22% TO, 2.3 FTR, 28% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” JR Ricardo Andreotti (5.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 87.8 OR, 18% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 1.8 FTR, 6% of FGAs are 3PT)

*C – 6’9” FR Trevor Gruis (5.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 107.9 OR, 15% Poss, 13% Shot, 18% TO, 5.7 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’3” SO Jake Thomas (10.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 91.2 OR, 21% Poss, 24% Shot, 18% TO, 2.2 FTR, 80% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’5” FR Steve Tecker (4.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 116.7 OR, 14% Poss, 15% Shot, 17% TO, 1.5 FTR, 27% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’1” SO Jordan Boots (6.0 PPG, 114.4 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 23% TO, 2.6 FTR, 78% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’4” SR Mitchell Bouie (4.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 85.9 OR, 23% Poss, 23% Shot, 27% TO, 2.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

PLAYER TRAITS

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Steve Tecker = 14%

Ricardo Andreotti = 0%

Kendall Cutler = 0%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

None

Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Jordan Boots = 57%

Charlie Westbrook = 46%

Louie Krogman = 45%

TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Jake Thomas = 20%

Jordan Boots = 17%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)

Trevor Gruis = 54%

Ricardo Andreotti = 50%

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Steve Tecker = 68%

Charlie Westbrook = 60%

FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Trevor Gruis = 63%

Charlie Westbrook = 61%

Louie Krogman = 60%

Jordan Boots = 57%

Ricardo Andreotti = 50%

Mitchell Bouie = 50%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)

Steve Tecker = 75%

Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Jake Thomas = 88%

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Steve Tecker = 19%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

Trevor Gruis = 23%

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Trevor Gruis = 10%

Mitchell Bouie = 10%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Ricardo Andreotti = 12%

STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Kendall Cutler = 3.7%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None

BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

None

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

None

ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Louie Krogman = 25%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

None

Demetri McCamey (+30%)

Kendall Cutler = 31%

POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Trevor Gruis = 15%

Steve Tecker = 14%

Brian Butch (24-28%)

Charlie Westbrook = 25%

Alando Tucker (+28%)

None

What South Dakota is really good at:

1. Three-point defense. This season, their opponents’ have shot a measly 27% from deep, which is 27^th lowest in the country.

2. Stealing the ball. They average stealing the ball from their opponent 3 times every 26 possessions, which is 73^rd in the country.

3. Defending free throws. Their opponents have shot 65.4% from the line, which is 113^th worst in the country.

What South Dakota is really bad at:

1. Two-point defense. They have allowed their opponents to shoot 54.1% inside the arc, which is 304^th in the nation.

2. Rebounding. They are 286^th in offensive rebounding (27.4%) and 235th in defensive (65.2%).

3. Getting to the charity stripe and making the shots when they get there. They only attempt 3 FTs for every 11 FGAs, which is 322^nd in the nation.

4. Pump-faking and blocking shots themselves. They have gotten 3 of every 26 2-pointers attempted blocked (256^th) while they only block 3 out of every 86 two-pointers themselves (330^th).

Relative Efficiency:

When South Dakota has the ball: They have scored an average 0.99 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.88 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 1.02 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.

Pace: South Dakota has played at 70 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers shoot better than 57% inside the arc. The Badgers are much bigger and the stats would suggest that the Coyotes play super tight defense on the perimeter trying for steals and harassing shooters, but giving up easy drives to the hoop from being over-extended.

2. Josh Gasser explodes for more than 12 points. He has averaged a lowly 1.5 PPG in the past two games after 11.0 PPG through the first five. I like the aforementioned over-extended defense leading to some great driving opportunities for him.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 78% of the opportunities on defense. South Dakota is a terrible rebounding team and the Badgers aren’t.

4. The Badgers get back the “make more free throws than their opponents attempt” stat back for the season. If I recall correctly, it’s currently at -5, so I like them to be at least +6 on the night.

The Badgers destroy the Coyotes 90-57 in 67 possessions.