South Dakota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: After that thrashing, the Badgers have another one on tap with the South Dakota Coyotes. If some of the names in their rotation are familiar, it’s because they’ve got some Wisconsin prep stars on their roster. Freshman Steve Tecker led Division 3 Northwestern to State last season and sophomore Jake Thomas led D-3 Racine St. Cats to the state title in 2009. Junior Charlie Westbrook attended Milwaukee Riverside and is a juco recruit from Iowa Western for South Dakota. The Coyotes enter the game at 3-4, with double-digit victories over South Dakota-School of Mines, Louisiana-Monroe, and Wyoming, and losses to Nebraska, Illinois State, Jacksonville State, and Marquette, an 82-69 decision.

Forums: Go Yotes

What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 83-54 Badger victory in 65 possessions, with a 1% chance of upset.

Sagarin predicts a 26-point Badger victory.

South Dakota Likely Rotation (First 6 Games Statistics)

*G – 6’0” SR Kendall Cutler (5.7 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 87.2 OR, 20% Poss, 12% Shot, 35% TO, 6.3 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’1” JR Louie Krogman (15.0 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 117.6 OR, 23% Poss, 27% Shot, 10% TO, 2.1 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’4” JR Charlie Westbrook (15.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 APG, 104.6 OR, 25% Poss, 28% Shot, 22% TO, 2.3 FTR, 28% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” JR Ricardo Andreotti (5.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 87.8 OR, 18% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 1.8 FTR, 6% of FGAs are 3PT)

*C – 6’9” FR Trevor Gruis (5.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 107.9 OR, 15% Poss, 13% Shot, 18% TO, 5.7 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’3” SO Jake Thomas (10.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 91.2 OR, 21% Poss, 24% Shot, 18% TO, 2.2 FTR, 80% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’5” FR Steve Tecker (4.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 116.7 OR, 14% Poss, 15% Shot, 17% TO, 1.5 FTR, 27% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’1” SO Jordan Boots (6.0 PPG, 114.4 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 23% TO, 2.6 FTR, 78% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’4” SR Mitchell Bouie (4.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 85.9 OR, 23% Poss, 23% Shot, 27% TO, 2.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

PLAYER TRAITS

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Steve Tecker = 14%

Ricardo Andreotti = 0%

Kendall Cutler = 0%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

None

Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Jordan Boots = 57%

Charlie Westbrook = 46%

Louie Krogman = 45%

TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Jake Thomas = 20%

Jordan Boots = 17%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)

Trevor Gruis = 54%

Ricardo Andreotti = 50%

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Steve Tecker = 68%

Charlie Westbrook = 60%

FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Trevor Gruis = 63%

Charlie Westbrook = 61%

Louie Krogman = 60%

Jordan Boots = 57%

Ricardo Andreotti = 50%

Mitchell Bouie = 50%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)

Steve Tecker = 75%

Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Jake Thomas = 88%

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Steve Tecker = 19%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

Trevor Gruis = 23%

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Trevor Gruis = 10%

Mitchell Bouie = 10%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Ricardo Andreotti = 12%

STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Kendall Cutler = 3.7%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None

BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

None

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

None

ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Louie Krogman = 25%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

None

Demetri McCamey (+30%)

Kendall Cutler = 31%

POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Trevor Gruis = 15%

Steve Tecker = 14%

Brian Butch (24-28%)

Charlie Westbrook = 25%

Alando Tucker (+28%)

None

What South Dakota is really good at:

1. Three-point defense. This season, their opponents’ have shot a measly 27% from deep, which is 27^th lowest in the country.

2. Stealing the ball. They average stealing the ball from their opponent 3 times every 26 possessions, which is 73^rd in the country.

3. Defending free throws. Their opponents have shot 65.4% from the line, which is 113^th worst in the country.

What South Dakota is really bad at:

1. Two-point defense. They have allowed their opponents to shoot 54.1% inside the arc, which is 304^th in the nation.

2. Rebounding. They are 286^th in offensive rebounding (27.4%) and 235th in defensive (65.2%).

3. Getting to the charity stripe and making the shots when they get there. They only attempt 3 FTs for every 11 FGAs, which is 322^nd in the nation.

4. Pump-faking and blocking shots themselves. They have gotten 3 of every 26 2-pointers attempted blocked (256^th) while they only block 3 out of every 86 two-pointers themselves (330^th).

Relative Efficiency:

When South Dakota has the ball: They have scored an average 0.99 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.88 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 1.02 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.

Pace: South Dakota has played at 70 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers shoot better than 57% inside the arc. The Badgers are much bigger and the stats would suggest that the Coyotes play super tight defense on the perimeter trying for steals and harassing shooters, but giving up easy drives to the hoop from being over-extended.

2. Josh Gasser explodes for more than 12 points. He has averaged a lowly 1.5 PPG in the past two games after 11.0 PPG through the first five. I like the aforementioned over-extended defense leading to some great driving opportunities for him.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 78% of the opportunities on defense. South Dakota is a terrible rebounding team and the Badgers aren’t.

4. The Badgers get back the “make more free throws than their opponents attempt” stat back for the season. If I recall correctly, it’s currently at -5, so I like them to be at least +6 on the night.

The Badgers destroy the Coyotes 90-57 in 67 possessions.