Very Belated Plus/Minuses From Previous Games (Nuclear Badger)

IPFW Game
Jon Leuer = +29
Trevon Hughes = +27
Jason Bohannon = +20
Keaton Nankivil = +18
Jared Berggren = +16
Jordan Taylor = +15
Trevon Hughes = +14
Ryan Evans = +8
Tim Jarmusz = +3
Rob Wilson = -2

Oakland Game
Trevon Hughes = +18
Ryan Evans = +13
Jon Leuer = +12
Keaton Nankivil = +12
Jordan Taylor = +12
Jared Berggren = +8
Rob Wilson = +6
Tim Jarmusz = +3
Jason Bohannon = +2
Mike Bruesewitz = -5

Arizona Game
Jason Bohannon = +11
Keaton Nankivil = +10
Jon Leuer = +6
Rob Wilson = +3
Ryan Evans = +3
Trevon Hughes = +2
Tim Jarmusz = -1
Jared Berggren = -1
Mike Bruesewitz = -5
Jordan Taylor = -8

Gonzaga Game
Rob Wilson = +1
Mike Bruesewitz = -3
Jon Leuer = -4
Keaton Nankivil = -8
Ryan Evans = -8
Trevon Hughes = -9
Jordan Taylor = -9
Tim Jarmusz = -9
Jason Bohannon = -16

Maryland Game
Mike Bruesewitz = +13
Trevon Hughes = +8
Keaton Nankivil = +7
Rob Wilson = +7
Ryan Evans = +5
Jared Berggren = +4
Jordan Taylor = +3
Jason Bohannon = +2
Tim Jarmusz = -1
Jon Leuer = -3

Duke Game
Trevon Hughes = +9
Tim Jarmusz = +9
Keaton Nankivil = +2
Jordan Taylor = +1
Jared Berggren = +1
Jason Bohannon = 0
Ryan Evans = 0
Mike Bruesewitz = 0
Jon Leuer = -2

Grambling State
Jason Bohannon = +36
Jordan Taylor = +31
Trevon Hughes = +26
Keaton Nankivil = +19
Ryan Evans = +18
Rob Wilson = +15
Jared Berggren = +15
Jon Leuer = +12
Tim Jarmusz = +8
Dan Fahey = 0
Mike Bruesewitz = -3
J.P. Gavinski = -4
Brett Valentyn = -4
Wquinton Smith = -4

Marquette Game
Jordan Taylor = +14
Tim Jarmusz = +13
Ryan Evans = +9
Jon Leuer = +7
Trevon Hughes = +4
Keaton Nankivil = 0
Jason Bohannon = 0
Rob Wilson = -2


Whew. Nuclear does a great job with these. I just did the Grambling one, my god, that's time consuming.

Gonzaga Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: Thanks to Shetown for covering for the Arizona game while I was hopelessly wondering the north woods.

I will not draw conclusions based upon a November game.

I will not draw conclusions based upon a November game.

I will not draw conclusions based upon a November games …

Summarizing the game in a few words: While UW was launching 3’s and missing them, the Zags were going to the line and making them.

Pace: The game had 65 possessions, which is the high side of normal for UW (last year we played at 60). That is pretty low considering the Zag’s propensity for running (compared to MSU on the radio). Last year, Gonzaga averaged 68.2 possessions, somewhat above the D1 average of 66.5.

Efficiency: Zag’s scored at a1.14 PPP. Ugh. Last year we kept teams to .95 overall. UW scored at .94 PPP.

Was it good Zag defense or bad UW offense? Was it good Zag offense or bad UW defense? The numbers do not say. When you play good teams, bad things can happen.

Shooting: Neither team shot well from beyond the arc, both were good inside the arc, and Gonzaga was decisive at the line.

eFG%: Zag’s had a 50.0 eFG% to UW’s 43.2%. This is directly related to UW taking a greater percentage of 3’s and missing them.

3 pt shooting: UW invested 13 more shots in threes than Gonzaga. What did they get for this investment? 6 points. Zag’s were a lowly 3-11 or 27% from deep while UW was an even worse 5-24 or 21%. UW’s eFG% from deep was 31% while the Zag’s were a nearly respectable 41%. At this rate, neither team should be launching 3’s. On the other hand, 5 of those misses go in and we win the game (I know, that is a big stretch).

2pt shooting: Gonzaga took 7 extra shots from inside the arc. What did they get for that investment? An extra 8 points, or slightly over 1 PPP. Zag’s were 22-42 or 52% while UW was 18 -35 for a similar 51%. Both teams were comparably efficient within the arc, but the Zag’s won in quantity.

1pt shooting: The Zag’s won the game at the line. They hit a blistering 21 or 25 for 84%. UW was 10-14 for 71%, which is not bad. So, Gonzaga had both a quality and quantity edge at the line. Gonzaga had an estimated 12 possessions end at the line. They scored 21 points or 1.75 PPP from the line.

Rebounding: The rebound wars were a draw, which surprised me because the game did not start out that way.

UW Defensive end: There were 29 rebounding opportunities and UW got 21, or 72%, thus holding the Zag’s to 28% offensive rebounding. That is good.

UW Offensive End: Because of UW’s brick laying ability from deep, there were more misses at UW’s offensive end of the floor. Of the 40 misses, UW got 10 and the Bulldogs 30. UW had 25% offensive rebounds, which is on par for what UW should expect.

Turnovers: First, the good news. UW turned the ball over only 9 times for a sparkling 14% TO ratio. Fantastic, especially when playing a team that likes force TO’s like the Zags.

The bad news is that, yet again, UW did not take advantage of the low TO rate. Gonzaga actually bettered UW with only 8 TO’, or 12%. When it was all said and done, the Zag’s had a +1 TO margin.

Fouls: Fouling was not the issue it was in the AZ game. Gonzaga had 18 to UW’s 19. But, the Zag’s translated those fouls into 25 FTA’s and held UW to only 14. This, along with their superior marksmanship, was the game.

Playing time: Bo played 7 players 10 or more minutes (Bruesewitz being one of them). Evans had 8 and Wilson 7.

Notable Performances: Offensively, Taylor was an ultraefficient 19 points on 10 shots from the floor (added 3 FT’s). He hit 2-3 from deep. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

JBO had 8 rebounds.

Leuer scored 18 on 17 shots and added 5 boards (1 TO).

How Shetown did in his predictions:

1. Both teams protect their defensive glass. Arizona and UW will not allow more than 33% of the misses on defense to be grabbed by the offensive team. Hit. UW held the Zag’s to 25%.

2. Leuer, Nankivil, Berggren, and Evans hold their bigs in check. Sacre, Harris, and Olynyk to combine for less than 23 points. Miss. They scored 27, but not too far off.

3. Hughes has another big game, scoring at least 12 points. Hughes is significantly quicker than Goodson, Bouldin, and Vilarino, leading to him attacking the rim at will, racking up lay-ups, assists, and free throw attempts. Miss. Hughes scored 10 points on only 8 shots. He had 0 turnovers. BTW, Boldin, Goodson and Vilarino combined for 27.

4. The Badgers score on the Zags inside, shooting better than 44% from 2-land. I like our bigs and guards to shoot better than the average team against the Bulldogs interior defense. Hit. UW scored at a 51% clip on shots inside the arc. But, we invested too many shots in the deep ball, which did not drop.

Closing Thoughts: UW did the things we often do - protect the ball, protect the glass but could not overcome poor shooting.

It is still November. One loss to a good team on a neutral court is not a big deal. I think of this game as a missed opportunity, not a bad loss. All teams are trying to find themselves at this point. JBO hits a few shots and this is a different game. Oh well, that is why you play them.

The We Make for Free Throw than the Other Team Attempts scoreboard:

UW needs to make 37 unanswered FT’s to be able to make this claim. At this point, we are closer to the reverse.

Opponents

FGM 67

FGA 87

% 77%

UW

FGM 51

FGA 73

% 70%

Gonzaga Post-Game News Articles

madison.com
uwbadgers.com
spokesman.com
gozags.com

Gonzaga Pre-Game News Articles

madison.com
uwbadgers.com
gozags.com

Gonzaga Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: With the nail-biter against Arizona over, who’s next?... the towering Bulldogs of Gonzaga. Gonzaga will easily be the biggest team Wisconsin faces this season, making MSU look small. This game, along with the Duke and Arizona games, will be litmus test games to see where this team is at. They’ve passed the test against the ultra-athletic team, now they have the ultra-big team. This is not to say Gonzaga is not beatable, as Colorado showed in the first game of the tournament. Colorado has a Princeton offense that is very similar to the Swing, only devoid of a post presence. Gonzaga struggled with it until they aggressively asserted their size advantage. Luckily for us, Nankivil, Leuer, and Berggren are all better post defenders than anyone Colorado had, and Ryan Evans probably is too.

Sorry if this one isn't as in-depth or seems rushed. I wanted to churn this one out before I went to bed so I didn't have to try to finish it in the morning before work.

Forums to Visit:

GU Nation (Scout)
GU Boards Independent


Gonzaga Probable Rotation:
*G – 5’11” SO Demetri Goodson (3.8 PPG, 1.6 APG, 1.3 RPG)
*G – 6’5” SR Matt Bouldin (13.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42% 3FG)
*G – 6’5” JR Steven Gray (9.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1 SPG)
*F – 6’8” FR Elias Harris (14.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG in first 3 games)
*C – 7’0” RS SO Robert Sacre (16.3 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.7 BPG in first 3 games)
F – 6’11” FR Kelly Olynyk (4.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG in first 3 games)
G – 6’0” FR G.J. Vilarino (4.7 PPG in first 3 games)
C – 7’5” SR Will Foster (2.1 RPG, 1.0 PPG)
G – 6’4” RS FR Grant Gibbs (3.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 APG in first 3 games)
F – 6’5” FR Manny Arop (3.7 RPG in first 3 games)

Last season they played at a pace of 68 possessions per game, very close to last season’s Marquette and UW-M teams. I’m certain they will play man-to-man defense, with strong defensive rebounding, but not many steals or forced turnovers, a la Wisconsin. If they are struggling in the man-to-man, they may switch to zone like they did against Colorado.

They are returning 39.1% of their minutes, 36.7% of their rebounding, and 35.2% of their scoring from last season. They return a lowly 4 upperclassmen, one of which is not in their rotation. They start a true freshman, sophomore, and redshirt sophomore, and their bench has 3 freshmen and 1 redshirt freshman.


Key Players:

Matt Bouldin – Bouldin is the senior leader for the team. The mop-headed 6’5” guard is ridiculously efficient offensively, with a 119.3 rating last season. He got it by shooting 42% from 3, 54% from 2, 74% from the line, and not turning it over much.

Steven Gray – Another big guard for the Zags was even more efficient than Bouldin last season, with a rating of 120.3. He did it by never turning it over (11.4%, or 68th best), and shooting a great 58% from 2. Together, he and Bouldin may be the best guard combo we see all season.

Robert Sacre – Sacre is a force inside. He is big and shoots well, 64% from the field and 72% from the line. He also doesn’t turn it over, averaging just 1 turnover per game so far.


What Gonzaga is really good at:

1. Shooting the rock. They were 39% from 3, 53% from 2, and 72% from the line last season, combining for the 6th best eFG% in the nation, 55.2%. This season they have dipped by a tenth of a percent in their effective FG% so far.

2. Getting to the line. So far this season, Gonzaga has had 53 free throw attempts to every 100 field goal attempts, good for 31st.

3. Protecting the Defensive Glass. They have allowed a stingy 26.3% this season (48th) and 31.1% last season (100th).

4. Forcing bad or contested shots. This season and last, Gonzaga has been near the top at defensive 2-point shooting percentage at just under 40%. They were the best last season and 47th this season so far.

5. Not turning it over. They were right up there with us last season in protecting the ball (16.1%). This season they are at 19.7%.


What Gonzaga is really bad at:

1. Offensive Rebounding. They don’t attack the glass, grabbing only 31.6% of their misses this season (207th) and the same last season (222nd).

2. Defending the 3. Last season, Gonzaga allowed a bad 35% from 3 (231st) and 35.7% this season (212nd).

3. Free Throw Shooting. So far this season, Gonzaga is shooting a below average 65% from the line (239th). Last season they were 72%.


Relative efficiency:

When Gonzaga has the ball: Gonzaga scored a great 1.18 PPP last season and 1.09 in their first 3 games, while UW gave up 0.77 in the first 3 games and 0.95 last season.

When UW has the ball: Gonzaga gave up a great 0.91 last season and 0.88 in their first 3 games, while UW scored 1.03 in their first 3 games and 1.14 last season.


Pace: Gonzaga played at 68 possessions per game last season and 78 in their first 3 games compared to UW’s 64 in their first 2 games and 60 last season.


My expectations:

1. Both teams protect their defensive glass. Arizona and UW will not allow more than 33% of the misses on defense to be grabbed by the offensive team.

2. Leuer, Nankivil, Berggren, and Evans hold their bigs in check. Sacre, Harris, and Olynyk to combine for less than 23 points.

3. Hughes has another big game, scoring at least 12 points. Hughes is significantly quicker than Goodson, Bouldin, and Vilarino, leading to him attacking the rim at will, racking up lay-ups, assists, and free throw attempts.

4. The Badgers score on the Zags inside, shooting better than 44% from 2-land. I like our bigs and guards to shoot better than the average team against the Bulldogs interior defense.

My Prediction: I’m not sure why, but I’m liking the Badgers in a heartbreaker for the Zags, 70-67 in a 66-possession game.