Very Belated Plus/Minuses From Previous Games (Nuclear Badger)

IPFW Game
Jon Leuer = +29
Trevon Hughes = +27
Jason Bohannon = +20
Keaton Nankivil = +18
Jared Berggren = +16
Jordan Taylor = +15
Trevon Hughes = +14
Ryan Evans = +8
Tim Jarmusz = +3
Rob Wilson = -2

Oakland Game
Trevon Hughes = +18
Ryan Evans = +13
Jon Leuer = +12
Keaton Nankivil = +12
Jordan Taylor = +12
Jared Berggren = +8
Rob Wilson = +6
Tim Jarmusz = +3
Jason Bohannon = +2
Mike Bruesewitz = -5

Arizona Game
Jason Bohannon = +11
Keaton Nankivil = +10
Jon Leuer = +6
Rob Wilson = +3
Ryan Evans = +3
Trevon Hughes = +2
Tim Jarmusz = -1
Jared Berggren = -1
Mike Bruesewitz = -5
Jordan Taylor = -8

Gonzaga Game
Rob Wilson = +1
Mike Bruesewitz = -3
Jon Leuer = -4
Keaton Nankivil = -8
Ryan Evans = -8
Trevon Hughes = -9
Jordan Taylor = -9
Tim Jarmusz = -9
Jason Bohannon = -16

Maryland Game
Mike Bruesewitz = +13
Trevon Hughes = +8
Keaton Nankivil = +7
Rob Wilson = +7
Ryan Evans = +5
Jared Berggren = +4
Jordan Taylor = +3
Jason Bohannon = +2
Tim Jarmusz = -1
Jon Leuer = -3

Duke Game
Trevon Hughes = +9
Tim Jarmusz = +9
Keaton Nankivil = +2
Jordan Taylor = +1
Jared Berggren = +1
Jason Bohannon = 0
Ryan Evans = 0
Mike Bruesewitz = 0
Jon Leuer = -2

Grambling State
Jason Bohannon = +36
Jordan Taylor = +31
Trevon Hughes = +26
Keaton Nankivil = +19
Ryan Evans = +18
Rob Wilson = +15
Jared Berggren = +15
Jon Leuer = +12
Tim Jarmusz = +8
Dan Fahey = 0
Mike Bruesewitz = -3
J.P. Gavinski = -4
Brett Valentyn = -4
Wquinton Smith = -4

Marquette Game
Jordan Taylor = +14
Tim Jarmusz = +13
Ryan Evans = +9
Jon Leuer = +7
Trevon Hughes = +4
Keaton Nankivil = 0
Jason Bohannon = 0
Rob Wilson = -2


Whew. Nuclear does a great job with these. I just did the Grambling one, my god, that's time consuming.

IPFW Box Score Observations (by turumon)

Opening Comments: I will not jump to conclusions based upon one game against an inferior team. I will not jump to conclusions based upon one game against an inferior team. I will not jump to conclusions based upon one game against an inferior team. …

Mastodons are slow moving and extinct.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW shot the lights out inside the arc and played great D.

Pace: The game was a normal, for UW, 63 possessions.

Efficiency: UW put up a stellar 1.19 PPP and held IPFW to a miserly .73 PPP.

Shooting: UW achieved a stunning 63.3 eFG% and held IPFW to a lowly 37.2%. We outscored IPFW inside, outside and at the line.

3 pt shooting: UW hoisted 5 more threes than IPFW and made 3 more shots. UW was a so-so 6/18 for 33% while IPFW hit only 3/13 for 23%. That gave UW an extra 9 points from beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: Surprisingly, IPFW took more shots inside than UW – 34 to 31. But, quality trumped quantity big time. UW hit a stunning 71% inside going 22/31. Yikes! IPFW was 13/34 for 38%. UW picked up an additional 18 points inside.

1pt shooting: Both teams were comparably efficient at the line. IPFW hit 73% (11 of 15) while UW was 76% (13/17). UW got an extra 2 points on the line.

Rebounding: [Edit: I goofed up the rebounding. It should now be fixed.] Protecting the glass will be something I plan on watching a lot this year. Can Leuer, Nankivil, Berggren, Jarmusz and company approach the effectiveness of Landry and Krabbenhoft?

UW Defensive end: There were 32 rebounding opportunities on UW’s defensive side and UW grabbed 26 for 81%. Anything above 66% is better than average for NCAA D1. Or, IPFW grabbed 19% of their misses. Last year we allowed the opposition 26.4% of the misses, which was #4 nationally. Hence, the concern about losing Landry and Krabbenhoft.

UW Offensive End: There were only 23 rebounding opportunities (see UW’s shooting percentages for an insight) and UW plucked 7 for 30%. Normally, UW would concede the offensive glass to play defense. Last year we gathered 32%, which was below average for D1 teams. Offensive rebounding, to some degree, is a strategy decision.

Turnovers: IPFW had 14 TO's for 22% while UW had 13 TO's for 21%. Last year we averaged 16%, which was #5 nationally. There was that forgettable stretch where we lost it about 6 times in a row in the second half. Ugh. As they say, Bo has some “teaching moments.” We will watch this all year.

Fouls: IPFW had 20 to UW’s 16. UW ended up with 2 extra free throws.

Playing time: Bo played 8 players 10 or minutes with Berggren getting 9 and Smith logging a pleasing 6. Good job, W'QS.

Notable Performances: Everyone who took a shot from the floor scored at least as many points as FGA’s.

Leuer was on fire today. He was 8-10 from the floor, 3-3 from the line, grabbed 6 boards (including a great long-armed snatch under IPFW’s basket), and blocked 4 shots. John, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Jarmusz was a tidy 9 points on 7 shots with 4 boards. JBO knocked down 12 on only 7 shots and had 3 blocks. JBO, people, campfires …

Shetown’s Predictions: Shetown had 3 hits, no misses, and fouled off 2.

1. Defending the three. The one thing IPFW is good at is shooting treys. Last season, Wisconsin’s opponents shot 32.6% from 3, good for 72nd worst in the country. Hit. IPFW hit 23%.

2. Defensive Rebounding. With the likelihood of long rebounds off of missed 3 bombs, the Badgers need to secure the boards against a poor offensive rebounding team and try to convert transition opportunities against this poor defensive team. Hit. IPFW got 6 of 25 for 24%. That is about average for our opponents last year, but UW was one of the best in the nation at protecting the glass. This is a good start, but obviously the level of competition has something to do with this.

3. Pound the ball inside. With IPFW’s best post defender suspended, Leuer, Nankivil, and Berggren should be able to have a field day in the paint. Major Hit. UW hit a shocking 71% inside the arc and outscored IPFW by 18 points.

4. Going inside will also lead to making that magical “make more free throws than their opponents take” stat come back to life after a 308 day hiatus. Not quite. UW made 13, IPFW tried 15.

5. I think UW accomplishes my keys to the game leading to the Badgers freezing the Mastodons 82-60 in a 71-possession game. Sort of. The game was 75-46 with 63 possessions. UW’s defense outperformed Shetown’s expectations. He predicted .85PPP buit UW achieved .73. Good job, team.

Closing Thoughts:

I normally do not look at blocks and assists. Who cares? But, one cannot help but notice UW had 11 blocks (to IPFW’s 0). Amazing.

As for assists, I still do not care.

Mrs. Turomon paused the TV and showed me that Andy North was present in the crowd (Thank God for HDTV or we would not have seen him). That got us at least a sip of our favorite beverage. For those who actually read this far and do not know the game, an Andy North sighting is a major part of our Badger drinking game).

I commented to Mrs. T that I need to pick a new favorite player since Joe Krabbenhoft is gone. This is a stressful thing for me to do. I want to get it right. Imagine the pressure on the poor guy who gets the honor. She recommended that I wait awhile before picking a favorite player, which makes a lot of sense. My instincts lean towards Jarmusz, but Leuer made me pause tonight. JBO is great - I really like his defense and his offensive efficiency is through the roof. Hughes does the dirty work. There are so many to choose from.

I really like the way the team appears to be unflappable. In particular, Hughes and JBO have the same demeanor all game every game no matter the opponent. I am not one who believes that basketball players should get fired up. Fired up players are mistake prone players, IMHO. I like to see steady high level performers (e.g. Mike Wilkinson, Marcus, …).

IPFW Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: It’s here! The start of another Wisconsin Badger basketball season is upon us! Get ready for Bo clapping for blocking fouls, Andy North popping up on screen, stories of Leuer growing 8 inches, Erin Andrews, and probably references to Kid N Play and Will Smith in regards to Ryan Evans’ hair. Who’s ready for Bo’s Badgers to prove pundits wrong yet again? I know I am!

Also, if you guys want me to add any other kind of information to my pre-games let me know and I can try to integrate it for the next ones.


What the expert nerds say:

Sagarin doesn’t have any data to predict this game.

Ken Pomeroy doesn’t have any stats to work with either.


IPFW Probable Rotation:
*G – 6’0” Ben Botts (11.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 APG, 42% 3PT, 92% FT)
*G – 6’2” Nick Daniels (8.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 47% 3FG)
*G – 6’3” Zach Plackemeier (7.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 45% 3PT)
*F – 6’5” John Peckinpaugh (1.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
*C – 6’10” Trey McCorkle (3.2 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG)
G/F – 6’7” Aaron Ritchie (2.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
G – 6’1” Jeremy Mixon (3.8 PPG, 1.3 RPG)
F – 6’5” Antwone Snead (9.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG at Lamar CC)
F – 6’8” Oleg Kovalev (9.1 PPG, 5 RPG at Cloud CC)
G – 6’4” Eli Lee (25.5 PPG, 5 RPG at Progressive Christian Academy)

Leading shot blocker (single season record at school) and 2nd returning scorer Deilvez Yearby, a 6’6” senior forward, has been suspended from this game due to a violation of team rules. He was Summit League 6th Man of the Year last season and would have been a starter in this game.

Last season they played at a pace of 67 possessions per game, very close to last season’s Indiana and Purdue teams. However, it looks like they will try to become more run-n-gun this season according to some of Coach Dane Fife’s twitter posts in the past few weeks (https://twitter.com/CoachDaneFife). The Mastodons play man-to-man defense, and similar to the Badgers, don’t force many turnovers, steals, or blocks.


Key Players: Junior guard Ben Botts is the leading returning scorer, and did it with an efficient 106.9 offensive rating. He accomplished that rating with shooting 42% from 3, 91% from the line, and was the second least likely player to turn the ball over on the team. Nearly half of all his shot attempts were from behind the arc last season, similar to Trevon Hughes. Despite his great free throw shooting, he didn’t get to the line much, only attempting 71 last season. He is also only 1 of 2 returning players with an assist-to-turnover ratio above 1.0.

Another key player for the ‘Dons is Zach Plackemeier. The 6’3” junior guard was the most efficient offensive player last season with more than 50 possessions to his name. He scored almost 8 points per game with an offensive rating of 107.7. It was achieved with a stellar 44.9% from 3, 80% from the line, and 83 assists to 46 turnovers.

6’0” senior guard Nick Daniels is the lead sniper on a team full of 3-point shooters. He shot an amazing 47.4% from beyond the arc. Luckily, he doesn’t excel at anything else on offense, turning it over a quarter of the time he ends a possession and shoots a lower percentage inside the arc than outside.

Lastly, I’m kinda blind towards how the Jucos and prep school kid will mix in since I couldn’t much info on preseason expectations and such. Peckinpaugh was my best guess for the starting line-up sub due to his position and playing time last season. It could easily be Snead or Kovalev too. I also saw on the Fort Worth newspaper that Fife wanted to move the suspended Yearby to small forward to get in another big so they could improve rebounding. So 1 of the 3 guards might be dropped from starter status as well. We’ll see on Sunday at 5.

What IPFW is really good at:

1. Shooting treys. The Mastodons take after their head coach, former Indiana guard Dane Fife, at being good 3-ball shooters. Last season they were 3rd in the nation at 40.8%, and the returning players combine for 42.8%. Oddly enough, they were well below D-1 average at attempts (239th/344), with only 30.3% of their shots coming from behind the line.


What IPFW is really bad at:

1. Rebounding offensively. Last season they grabbed 26.1% of boards when they were on offense, good for bottom 20 of all D-1.

2. Defense. Their defense gave up a poor 1.05 PPP last season (245th). They also gave up an eFG% of 51.5% (280th), only forced a turnover on 18.8% of opponent’s possessions (264th), gave up 52.1% from 2-point land (315th), and forced a steal on only 8.8% of opponent’s possessions (333rd).

3. Offense. The ‘Dons scored 0.99 PPP last season, good for 210th in the country. The Badgers should be happy if Jeremy Mixon and John Peckinpaugh are taking a lot of shots on Sunday, as they had Alex Legion and Jordan Taylor-esque offensive efficiency ratings last season. They also won’t have much of an inside presence unless one of the Jucos makes an impact or Peckinpaugh and/or McCorkle made serious leaps in ability and confidence.




Relative efficiency: As noted above, IPFW has very bad defense and pretty bad offense.

When IPFW has the ball: They scored a bad 0.99 PPP last season, while UW gave up 0.68 PPP in the exhibition games and 0.95 last season.

When UW has the ball: They gave up a bad 1.05 last season, while UW scored 1.15 in the exhibition games and 1.14 last season.


Pace: IPFW played at 67 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 74 in the exhibition games and 60 last season. As previously mentioned Coach Dane Fife has hinted at a quicker pace in twitter posts, and Wisconsin players and coaches have done the same.

Keys to the Game:

1. Defending the three. The one thing IPFW is good at is shooting treys. Last season, Wisconsin’s opponents shot 32.6% from 3, good for 72nd worst in the country. Hopefully with the additions of a healthy Tim Jarmusz, Rob Wilson, and Ryan Evans, UW can improve upon this with quicker close-outs.

2. Defensive Rebounding. With the likelihood of long rebounds off of missed 3 bombs, the Badgers need to secure the boards against a poor offensive rebounding team and try to convert transition opportunities against this poor defensive team.

3. Pounding the ball inside. With IPFW’s best post defender suspended, Leuer, Nankivil, and Berggren should be able to have a field day. No one on the ‘Dons roster can match-up with Leuer or Nankivil. If Fife has them pack the paint, Jon and Keaton can just kick out to an open Bohannon, Jarmusz, Hughes, or Wilson. This will also lead to making that magical “make more free throws than their opponents take” stat come back to life after a 308 day hiatus.


My expectations: I think UW accomplishes my keys to the game leading to the Badgers freezing the Mastodons 82-60 in a 71-possession game.