Saturday, November 12, 2011
SORRY!!!
I also forgot. I have now relocated to Swingtown Basketball. Some content will be added and I believe the layout and site design is much, much improved.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Belmont Pre-Game Analysis
Opening Comment: It's that time of year again! Wisconsin enters the 2011 NCAA Tournament with a 23-8 record, earning a 4 seed from the committee. Their first round opponent in Tucson are the Bruins of Belmont, the 30-4 Atlantic Sun Conference champions. If they are able to advance to the second round, they will face a 5 seed Kansas State squad or a 12 seed Utah State squad. If they were to advance to the Sweet 16 after that, they would likely face 1 seed Pitt, or maybe 8 seed Butler or 9 seed Old Dominion. Nevertheless, Wisconsin's opponent of Belmont, while sporting a rather weak schedule, dominated their conference. As such, Ken Pomeroy ranks them as the 18th best team in the country, or having the ability of a 5 seed. So that's pretty lame for us. It's along the same lines of Florida State getting us in 2009, as we were actually considered marginally better than them by Pomeroy despite our seed being a 12 seed and FSU being a 5 seed. Or Pitt and us meeting as 3 and 6 seeds in the second round despite being ranked #4 and #5 in Pomeroy's rankings.
Forum to Visit: Atlantic Sun Team Talk - Belmont
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-63 Badger victory in 59 possessions, with a 39% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 4-point Badger victory.
Belmont's Style of Play:
Offense = When Belmont has the ball, they are a rather equal opportunity offense. Only a player, Scott Saunders, uses more than 24% of the possessions when they are on the court, and only one, Adam Barnes, uses less than 15.7% of them. Comparatively, Wisconsin has two guys, Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, who use more than 24%, and five guys that use less than 15.7% of them. No one on the Bruins roster scores more than 13 points a game, but they have three double-digit scorers and six guys that score between 5 and 10 points a game. Their offense is up-tempo (9th fastest team in the tournament), resulting in easy transition scores from attacking the basket and spot-up threes. Belmont attempts five three-point attempts for every seven two-point attempts, which is a tad more often than Wisconsin's four to every six. The primary ballhandlers for Belmont are Drew Hanlen and Kerron Johnson. Each brings their own unique style as Hanlen is a three-point bomber, attempting nearly four triples a game and knocking down a respectable 34.6% of them, but has substantial trouble in the land of trees, making a putrid 37.5% of his twos. On the other hand, Johnson attempts only one three a game, but is very aggressive attacking the basket. He makes more than half of his twos and has attempted more free throws than field goals. Unfortunately for Belmont, this aggressiveness has resulted in a sub-1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio and a turnover rate near 30%. Sophomore shooting guard Ian Clark (6'3") is the leading scorer on the team, taking a nearly equal amount of shots on each side of the arc, shooting 55% inside and 44% outside. This isn't to say that the team is completely perimeter-oriented though. The second- and third-leading scorers are forwards 6'9" Mick Hedgepeth and 6'10" Scott Saunders. The two of them combine to shoot 238 of 451(52.8%) inside the arc, have only attempted 11 threes all season, both have attempted more free throws than Jon Leuer on the season, and both are fantastic offensive rebounders. Collectively, they are one of the best shooting teams in the tournament, as they are the sixth best two-point shooters, 13th at the charity stripe, and 14th beyond the arc. Interestingly enough, they get their shots blocked the most out all the teams in the tournament despite their great two-point numbers. They are below average at taking care of the ball (50th), average at getting to the line (38th), and good at offensive rebounding (12th).
Defense = When Belmont is on defense, they like to pester the hell their opponent. They are the best team in the tournament at forcing turnovers, especially via steals (#1 as well). They are exactly average at defending threes (#34) for a tournament team, above average defending the paint (#25), and below average at blocking shots (#42). However, with this extremely aggressive system, they foul like mad. Only one team in the tournament sends the other team to the line as more often than the Bruins and seven of the 12 guys in their rotation would foul out or come close, on average, if they played 40 minutes. They also slightly suffer at rebounding defensively, being 49th best in the tournament.
Belmont's Resume:
KenPom = #18
Sagarin = #34
Record vs. Ken Pom Top 160 = 1-3 (0-2 vs. #55 Tennessee, 0-1 vs. #32 Vanderbilt, 1-0 vs. #112 East Tennessee State)
A Match-Up of Contrasts:
Wisconsin Lack of Turnovers = best in the tourney
Belmont Forcing Turnovers = best in the tourney
Wisconsin's Tempo = slowest in the tourney
Belmont's Tempo = 9th fastest in the tourney
Wisconsin's Defensive Rebounding = 4th in the tourney
Belmont's Offensive Rebounding = 12th in the tourney
Wisconsin's Offensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney
Belmont's Defensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney
Wisconsin's Stealing Ability = worst in the tourney
Belmont's Abilty to Avoid Steals = 13th worst in the tourney
Wisconsin's Ability to Avoid Steals = 3rd best in the tourney
Belmont's Stealing Ability = best in the tourney
Belmont Rotation:
Wisconsin Rotation:
Belmont Team Statistics:
Wisconsin Team Statistics:
My Expectations:
1. Wisconsin turns it over less than 16% of the time. The best team at protecting the ball they've faced turns it over 19.1% of the time, the Badgers are unbelievably better than that.
2. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 35 points. Both shake off the ice from deep and make the Belmont bigs uncomfortable on the perimeter.
3. Wisconsin makes more free throws than Belmont attempts. Belmont fouls like mad in their attempts for steals.
4. Wisconsin grabs more than 74% of the defensive rebounding opportunities. Bo emphasizes the defensive boards to make sure Belmont doesn't get extra chances.
My Prediction: The Badgers shock the world, beating the sexy Cinderella pick, 72-60 in 58 possessions.
Forum to Visit: Atlantic Sun Team Talk - Belmont
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-63 Badger victory in 59 possessions, with a 39% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 4-point Badger victory.
Belmont's Style of Play:
Offense = When Belmont has the ball, they are a rather equal opportunity offense. Only a player, Scott Saunders, uses more than 24% of the possessions when they are on the court, and only one, Adam Barnes, uses less than 15.7% of them. Comparatively, Wisconsin has two guys, Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer, who use more than 24%, and five guys that use less than 15.7% of them. No one on the Bruins roster scores more than 13 points a game, but they have three double-digit scorers and six guys that score between 5 and 10 points a game. Their offense is up-tempo (9th fastest team in the tournament), resulting in easy transition scores from attacking the basket and spot-up threes. Belmont attempts five three-point attempts for every seven two-point attempts, which is a tad more often than Wisconsin's four to every six. The primary ballhandlers for Belmont are Drew Hanlen and Kerron Johnson. Each brings their own unique style as Hanlen is a three-point bomber, attempting nearly four triples a game and knocking down a respectable 34.6% of them, but has substantial trouble in the land of trees, making a putrid 37.5% of his twos. On the other hand, Johnson attempts only one three a game, but is very aggressive attacking the basket. He makes more than half of his twos and has attempted more free throws than field goals. Unfortunately for Belmont, this aggressiveness has resulted in a sub-1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio and a turnover rate near 30%. Sophomore shooting guard Ian Clark (6'3") is the leading scorer on the team, taking a nearly equal amount of shots on each side of the arc, shooting 55% inside and 44% outside. This isn't to say that the team is completely perimeter-oriented though. The second- and third-leading scorers are forwards 6'9" Mick Hedgepeth and 6'10" Scott Saunders. The two of them combine to shoot 238 of 451(52.8%) inside the arc, have only attempted 11 threes all season, both have attempted more free throws than Jon Leuer on the season, and both are fantastic offensive rebounders. Collectively, they are one of the best shooting teams in the tournament, as they are the sixth best two-point shooters, 13th at the charity stripe, and 14th beyond the arc. Interestingly enough, they get their shots blocked the most out all the teams in the tournament despite their great two-point numbers. They are below average at taking care of the ball (50th), average at getting to the line (38th), and good at offensive rebounding (12th).
Defense = When Belmont is on defense, they like to pester the hell their opponent. They are the best team in the tournament at forcing turnovers, especially via steals (#1 as well). They are exactly average at defending threes (#34) for a tournament team, above average defending the paint (#25), and below average at blocking shots (#42). However, with this extremely aggressive system, they foul like mad. Only one team in the tournament sends the other team to the line as more often than the Bruins and seven of the 12 guys in their rotation would foul out or come close, on average, if they played 40 minutes. They also slightly suffer at rebounding defensively, being 49th best in the tournament.
Belmont's Resume:
KenPom = #18
Sagarin = #34
Record vs. Ken Pom Top 160 = 1-3 (0-2 vs. #55 Tennessee, 0-1 vs. #32 Vanderbilt, 1-0 vs. #112 East Tennessee State)
A Match-Up of Contrasts:
Wisconsin Lack of Turnovers = best in the tourney
Belmont Forcing Turnovers = best in the tourney
Wisconsin's Tempo = slowest in the tourney
Belmont's Tempo = 9th fastest in the tourney
Wisconsin's Defensive Rebounding = 4th in the tourney
Belmont's Offensive Rebounding = 12th in the tourney
Wisconsin's Offensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney
Belmont's Defensive Free Throw Rate = 2nd worst in the tourney
Wisconsin's Stealing Ability = worst in the tourney
Belmont's Abilty to Avoid Steals = 13th worst in the tourney
Wisconsin's Ability to Avoid Steals = 3rd best in the tourney
Belmont's Stealing Ability = best in the tourney
Belmont Rotation:
| Position | Year | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | Shot % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | Junior | 5'11" | Drew Hanlen | 23.3 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 118.0 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 20.8 | 86.4% | 37.5% | 34.6% | 72.6% | 3.37 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.97 |
| * G | Sophomore | 6'3" | Ian Clark | 24.6 | 12.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 121.8 | 20.4 | 24.8 | 17.1 | 81.3% | 55.4% | 43.9% | 54.1% | 2.11 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 3.53 |
| * G/F | Senior | 6'6" | Jon House | 19.0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 111.2 | 16.3 | 14.0 | 23.3 | 68.3% | 51.9% | 39.3% | 21.2% | 4.55 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.41 |
| * F | Sophomore | 6'7" | Trevor Noack | 14.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 104.1 | 18.4 | 22.8 | 17.9 | 76.2% | 54.2% | 30.2% | 57.1% | 1.25 | 8.0 | 17.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.28 |
| * F/C | Junior | 6'9" | Mick Hedgepeth | 21.9 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 115.7 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 15.6 | 71.5% | 53.8% | 40.0% | 4.1% | 5.61 | 12.8 | 19.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.67 |
| G/F | Senior | 6'5" | Jordan Campbell | 21.3 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 133.6 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 17.8 | 66.7% | 64.7% | 46.0% | 82.6% | 1.38 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.49 |
| G | Sophomore | 6'1" | Kerron Johnson | 18.1 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 109.0 | 24.0 | 15.5 | 28.9 | 74.5% | 52.0% | 46.2% | 28.1% | 10.14 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 26.3 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 5.41 |
| F/C | Junior | 6'10" | Scott Saunders | 17.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 112.7 | 26.8 | 25.3 | 15.6 | 73.6% | 51.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 7.29 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 5.08 |
| G/F | Freshman | 6'6" | J.J. Mann | 15.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 106.8 | 20.0 | 25.5 | 15.6 | 65.2% | 48.9% | 32.7% | 55.6% | 1.16 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.23 |
| F | Sophomore | 6'6" | Brandon Baker | 12.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 101.3 | 15.7 | 17.8 | 21.2 | 64.3% | 54.3% | 28.8% | 67.6% | 1.30 | 5.9 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 6.28 |
| F | Freshman | 6'7" | Blake Jenkins | 10.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 97.9 | 22.2 | 18.9 | 26.3 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 31.0% | 30.5% | 5.37 | 9.8 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 6.62 |
| G | Sophomore | 6'2" | Adam Barnes | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 110.9 | 13.7 | 14.3 | 28.0 | 66.7% | 58.8% | 60.0% | 22.7% | 1.36 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.58 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Year | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | Shot % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | Junior | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 36.2 | 18.1 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 131.1 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 8.1 | 84.9% | 50.4% | 43.3% | 37.5% | 3.98 | 3.1 | 12.2 | 30.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.53 |
| * G | Freshman | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 28.0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 127.1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 15.0 | 85.1% | 60.0% | 30.5% | 44.0% | 3.51 | 5.8 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.36 |
| * F/G | Senior | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 22.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 127.7 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 90.5% | 38.5% | 34.1% | 86.3% | 2.21 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.80 |
| * F | Senior | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 33.6 | 18.6 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 118.2 | 29.3 | 32.2 | 11.0 | 84.7% | 47.4% | 37.8% | 30.2% | 2.64 | 6.5 | 22.8 | 12.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.46 |
| * F | Senior | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 28.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 128.6 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 12.4 | 84.8% | 54.6% | 46.2% | 52.4% | 1.45 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 2.63 |
| F | Sophomore | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 19.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 116.3 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 17.7 | 72.7% | 60.0% | 30.8% | 48.6% | 2.06 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.83 |
| G/F | Sophomore | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 11.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 83.3 | 21.8 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 77.1% | 32.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 6.7 | 20.3 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.79 |
| F/C | Sophomore | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 99.2 | 22.4 | 20.3 | 24.1 | 61.5% | 61.3% | 27.8% | 46.2% | 2.65 | 7.2 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 0.3 | 7.03 |
| G | Senior | 5'10" | Wquinton Smith | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 101.7 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 18.1 | 33.3% | 36.4% | 20.0% | 31.3% | 3.75 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.78 |
| G/F | Junior | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 7.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 92.5 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 87.5% | 52.0% | 5.9% | 40.5% | 1.90 | 5.4 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.33 |
| G | Senior | 6'4" | Brett Valentyn | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 105.5 | 13.2 | 15.5 | 19.0 | 50.0% | ------------ | 34.8% | 100.0% | 0.87 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.97 |
Belmont Team Statistics:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 112.6 (#26) | 69.1 (#9) | 20.0 (#50) | 37.9 (#12) | 38.0 (#38) | 38.1 (#14) | 52.4 (#6) | 73.6 (#13) | 13.2 (#68) | 9.9 (#56) |
| Defense | 90.7 (#15) | 69.1 (#9) | 27.6 (#1) | 67.5 (#49) | 45.9 (#67) | 32.8 (#34) | 44.1 (#25) | 67.5 (#17) | 9.8 (#42) | 13.9 (#1) |
Wisconsin Team Statistics:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 123.6 (#2) | 57.6 (#68) | 13.1 (#1) | 34.6 (#34) | 28.0 (#67) | 37.1 (#20) | 49.5 (#36) | 82.4 (#1) | 6.0 (#1) | 6.5 (#3) |
| Defense | 95.6 (#47) | 57.6 (#68) | 16.9 (#66) | 72.6 (#4) | 31.4 (#21) | 37.5 (#68) | 45.1 (#38) | 75.0 (#68) | 9.1 (#51) | 6.0 (#68) |
My Expectations:
1. Wisconsin turns it over less than 16% of the time. The best team at protecting the ball they've faced turns it over 19.1% of the time, the Badgers are unbelievably better than that.
2. Keaton and Jon combine for more than 35 points. Both shake off the ice from deep and make the Belmont bigs uncomfortable on the perimeter.
3. Wisconsin makes more free throws than Belmont attempts. Belmont fouls like mad in their attempts for steals.
4. Wisconsin grabs more than 74% of the defensive rebounding opportunities. Bo emphasizes the defensive boards to make sure Belmont doesn't get extra chances.
My Prediction: The Badgers shock the world, beating the sexy Cinderella pick, 72-60 in 58 possessions.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Indiana Pre-Game Analysis
Opening Comments: Thank you seniors. We'll miss you. The rest are on the road now, with 12-17 Indiana on the docket. With OSU's victory over Penn State last night, Wisconsin no longer has a chance at the Big Ten regular season title, so now the Badgers are playing for seed. If they win out, they could got a 2 seed, if they go 0-3, they could limp in with about a 5 or 6 seed.
What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-60 Badger win in 57 possessions, with a 21% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 6-point Badger victory.
Wait Until Crean Gets His Guys:
Verdell Jones = Scout - #32 PG... Rivals - #26 PG, #126 overall
Nick Williams = Scout - #36 SG... Rivals - #34 SG, #145 overall... RSCI - #88
Maurice Creek = Scout - #11 SG... Rivals - #14 SG, #56 overall... RSCI - #58
Derek Elston = Scout - #24 PF... Rivals - #22 SF, #103 overall
Jordan Hulls = Scout - #8 PG... Rivals - #19 PG, #107 overall... RSCI - #74
Bawa Muniru = Rivals - #16 C, #112 overall
Christian Watford = Scout - #12 SF... Rivals - #6 SF, #41 overall... RSCI - #45
Will Sheehey = Scout - #45 SF... Rivals - #40 SG, #141 overall
Victor Oladipo = Rivals - #41 SG, #144 overall
So, what kind of players are Indiana fans waiting for? Remember kids, Tannin' Tom has only won 53% of his games without D-Wade.
Indiana Rotation:
Wisconsin Rotation:
Indiana Big Ten Stats:
Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:
My Expectations:
1. The Badgers grab more than 33% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. The Hoosiers suck at defensive rebounding.
2. The Badgers shot better than 35% from deep. They generally are terrible from deep on the road, but Indiana is terrible at defending threes.
3. The Badgers have a free throw rate higher than 4 FTAs per 10 FGAs. Indiana fouls a lot.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 63-54 in 58 possessions.
What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-60 Badger win in 57 possessions, with a 21% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 6-point Badger victory.
Wait Until Crean Gets His Guys:
Verdell Jones = Scout - #32 PG... Rivals - #26 PG, #126 overall
Nick Williams = Scout - #36 SG... Rivals - #34 SG, #145 overall... RSCI - #88
Maurice Creek = Scout - #11 SG... Rivals - #14 SG, #56 overall... RSCI - #58
Derek Elston = Scout - #24 PF... Rivals - #22 SF, #103 overall
Jordan Hulls = Scout - #8 PG... Rivals - #19 PG, #107 overall... RSCI - #74
Bawa Muniru = Rivals - #16 C, #112 overall
Christian Watford = Scout - #12 SF... Rivals - #6 SF, #41 overall... RSCI - #45
Will Sheehey = Scout - #45 SF... Rivals - #40 SG, #141 overall
Victor Oladipo = Rivals - #41 SG, #144 overall
So, what kind of players are Indiana fans waiting for? Remember kids, Tannin' Tom has only won 53% of his games without D-Wade.
Indiana Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'0" | Jordan Hulls | 33.7 | 12.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 114.6 | 19.7 | 17.1 | 100.0% | 55.4% | 36.8% | 47.8% | 1.82 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.52 |
| * G | 6'5" | Verdell Jones III | 29.7 | 12.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 102.5 | 26.2 | 18.6 | 71.7% | 43.7% | 43.3% | 22.6% | 3.98 | 0.9 | 13.5 | 24.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3.11 |
| * G | 6'5" | Jeremiah Rivers | 23.8 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 86.9 | 15.2 | 30.4 | 71.4% | 46.2% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 3.50 | 3.8 | 11.3 | 16.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.74 |
| * F | 6'8" | Christian Watford | 29.3 | 14.6 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 101.8 | 27.9 | 15.3 | 83.1% | 36.7% | 40.4% | 36.8% | 3.81 | 5.8 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3.88 |
| * F | 6'9" | Tom Pritchard | 19.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 133.9 | 9.3 | 14.8 | 54.5% | 66.7% | - | 0.0% | 3.06 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 6.69 |
| G | 6'5" | Victor Olapido | 19.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 112.1 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 70.6% | 58.5% | 33.3% | 18.8% | 6.38 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 4.95 |
| F | 6'9" | Derek Elston | 16.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 83.7 | 18.6 | 24.6 | 72.7% | 48.3% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 1.67 | 9.8 | 20.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6.13 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Will Sheehey | 16.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 101.7 | 20.1 | 15.8 | 68.4% | 48.4% | 33.3% | 19.5% | 2.47 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 6.23 |
| G | 6'3" | Matt Roth | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 119.4 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 36.0% | 94.3% | 0.38 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.59 |
| G | 5'10" | Daniel Moore | 6.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 63.7 | 10.7 | 42.8 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 2.50 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 6.83 |
| F | 6'9" | Bobby Capobianco | 5.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 63.6 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 0.0% | 25.0% | - | 0.0% | 2.50 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 9.27 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 37.6 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 130.8 | 28.8 | 7.4 | 83.9% | 48.8% | 42.1% | 37.4% | 4.58 | 2.8 | 13.4 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.77 |
| * G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 28.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 129.0 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 76.9% | 58.1% | 37.5% | 43.6% | 2.36 | 5.4 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.22 |
| * F/G | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 25.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 130.4 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 100.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | 89.1% | 3.04 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.75 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 35.3 | 18.5 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 110.8 | 30.6 | 11.4 | 92.6% | 51.2% | 31.1% | 26.9% | 2.38 | 6.3 | 24.0 | 12.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.42 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 32.0 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 131.0 | 17.1 | 9.4 | 85.7% | 45.8% | 49.4% | 62.6% | 1.71 | 6.7 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 2.92 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 15.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 109.1 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 85.7% | 54.5% | 26.1% | 51.1% | 1.56 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.88 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 91.7 | 17.4 | 18.4 | 83.3% | 39.4% | - | 0.0% | 3.64 | 4.3 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.39 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 8.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.1 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 100.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 2.00 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.94 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 6.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 77.6 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 2.22 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 7.71 |
| G | 5'10" | Wquinton Smith | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 101.8 | 8.8 | 25.0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | - | 0.0% | 3.33 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 3.75 |
Indiana Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 102.8 (#9) | 63.6 (#4) | 19.0 (#8) | 30.8 (#6) | 30.5 (#7) | 34.4 (#7) | 48.4 (#9) | 76.4 (#3) | 13.1 (#11) | 9.3 (#9) |
| Defense | 112.2 (#10) | 63.6 (#4) | 17.8 (#5) | 68.3 (#9) | 54.8 (#11) | 39.4 (#10) | 49.4 (#6) | 70.3 (#2) | 5.8 (#11) | 8.3 (#7) |
Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 119.1 (#1) | 56.2 (#11) | 12.1 (#1) | 30.1 (#9) | 29.4 (#8) | 37.1 (#5) | 49.8 (#5) | 85.3 (#1) | 7.0 (#1) | 6.0 (#1) |
| Defense | 105.5 (#4) | 56.2 (#11) | 15.2 (#9) | 73.3 (#1) | 31.9 (#6) | 36.3 (#6) | 48.4 (#5) | 76.8 (#10) | 7.1 (#7) | 5.5 (#11) |
My Expectations:
1. The Badgers grab more than 33% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. The Hoosiers suck at defensive rebounding.
2. The Badgers shot better than 35% from deep. They generally are terrible from deep on the road, but Indiana is terrible at defending threes.
3. The Badgers have a free throw rate higher than 4 FTAs per 10 FGAs. Indiana fouls a lot.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 63-54 in 58 possessions.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Northwestern Pre-Game Analysis
Opening Comments: The Badgers escaped a terrible shooting day in Ann Arbor with great/lucky shot from Josh Gasser. Just today, Gasser's 3 was overtaken on the ESPN Top 10 by a Kobe highlight after a two-day reign as the top play. Why I know this despite not watching Sportscenter often? One of my high school friends was celebrating it, as he is a Marquette fan and hated a Badger highlight being #1. Within minutes, Sam Dekker defended the Badgers' honor. Atta boy, Sam! The Badger have their final home game of the season against Northwestern, who are limping into the game at 16-11 (6-10 Big Ten) after having NCAA Tournament aspirations mere weeks ago.
What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-58 Badger victory in 56 possessions, with an 8% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 13-point victory.
Northwestern Rotation:
Wisconsin Rotation:
Northwestern Big Ten Stats:
Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:
My Predictions:
1. The Badgers attempt more than 14 free throws. Northwestern fouls a lot.
2. The Badgers turn the ball over less than 10% of the possessions. Wisconsin overachieves against Northwestern decent turnover-producing ability.
3. Leuer scores more than 20. Luka Mirkovic may drain a 17 footer in the first 2 minutes of the game and act like the shot just won the national championship, but Jon easily dominates in the match-up.
My Expectations: The Badgers blowout Northwestern by a score of 73-52 in 57 possessions.
What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-58 Badger victory in 56 possessions, with an 8% chance of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 13-point victory.
Northwestern Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 5'10" | Michael Thompson | 38.3 | 15.7 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 111.9 | 22.5 | 15.3 | 81.6% | 53.7% | 36.9% | 57.5% | 2.54 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 25.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.42 |
| * G | 6'5" | JerShon Cobb | 28.6 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 103.0 | 18.0 | 8.5 | 75.0% | 49.3% | 27.6% | 44.3% | 2.14 | 2.8 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.71 |
| * G | 6'5" | Drew Crawford | 30.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 97.3 | 21.0 | 14.3 | 57.1% | 39.7% | 38.7% | 49.0% | 1.83 | 4.9 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.61 |
| * F | 6'8" | John Shurna | 32.1 | 12.7 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 104.1 | 23.1 | 13.7 | 71.4% | 43.5% | 36.9% | 43.3% | 4.20 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.32 |
| * F/C | 6'10" | Luka Mirkovic | 25.3 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 103.2 | 21.2 | 18.6 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 13.8% | 3.21 | 7.6 | 17.6 | 15.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 4.54 |
| G | 6'3" | Alex Marcotullio | 20.9 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 107.6 | 14.9 | 21.7 | 44.4% | 52.9% | 39.1% | 73.0% | 1.43 | 3.9 | 9.3 | 20.9 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 4.18 |
| F | 6'9" | Davide Curletti | 14.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 103.6 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 75.0% | 38.7% | 35.7% | 31.1% | 3.56 | 3.6 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 7.27 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Capocci | 9.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 123.0 | 11.3 | 18.5 | 77.8% | 56.3% | 33.3% | 15.8% | 4.74 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.44 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 37.6 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 130.8 | 28.8 | 7.4 | 83.9% | 48.8% | 42.1% | 37.4% | 4.58 | 2.8 | 13.4 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.77 |
| * G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 28.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 129.0 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 76.9% | 58.1% | 37.5% | 43.6% | 2.36 | 5.4 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.22 |
| * F/G | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 25.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 130.4 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 100.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | 89.1% | 3.04 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.75 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 35.3 | 18.5 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 110.8 | 30.6 | 11.4 | 92.6% | 51.2% | 31.1% | 26.9% | 2.38 | 6.3 | 24.0 | 12.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.42 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 32.0 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 131.0 | 17.1 | 9.4 | 85.7% | 45.8% | 49.4% | 62.6% | 1.71 | 6.7 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 2.92 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 15.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 109.1 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 85.7% | 54.5% | 26.1% | 51.1% | 1.56 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.88 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 91.7 | 17.4 | 18.4 | 83.3% | 39.4% | - | 0.0% | 3.64 | 4.3 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.39 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 8.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.1 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 100.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 2.00 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.94 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 6.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 77.6 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 2.22 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 7.71 |
Northwestern Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 105.0 (#7) | 62.8 (#6) | 16.0 (#3) | 25.1 (#10) | 28.4 (#10) | 36.0 (#6) | 47.9 (#11) | 71.7 (#7) | 12.8 (#10) | 7.5 (#5) |
| Defense | 113.7 (#11) | 62.8 (#6) | 18.9 (#3) | 65.6 (#10) | 40.4 (#10) | 38.6 (#9) | 55.9 (#11) | 70.0 (#3) | 8.5 (#6) | 9.7 (#2) |
Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:
| Efficiency | Pace | TO % | Reb % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 117.8 (#1) | 56.2 (#11) | 12.1 (#1) | 30.4 (#8) | 28.6 (#9) | 36.9 (#5) | 48.7 (#8) | 85.8 (#1) | 7.2 (#1) | 5.9 (#1) |
| Defense | 105.0 (#4) | 56.2 (#11) | 15.5 (#9) | 72.5 (#1) | 32.4 (#6) | 34.6 (#3) | 48.7 (#5) | 77.0 (#11) | 7.5 (#7) | 5.5 (#11) |
My Predictions:
1. The Badgers attempt more than 14 free throws. Northwestern fouls a lot.
2. The Badgers turn the ball over less than 10% of the possessions. Wisconsin overachieves against Northwestern decent turnover-producing ability.
3. Leuer scores more than 20. Luka Mirkovic may drain a 17 footer in the first 2 minutes of the game and act like the shot just won the national championship, but Jon easily dominates in the match-up.
My Expectations: The Badgers blowout Northwestern by a score of 73-52 in 57 possessions.
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