Saturday, February 26, 2011

Northwestern Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: The Badgers escaped a terrible shooting day in Ann Arbor with great/lucky shot from Josh Gasser. Just today, Gasser's 3 was overtaken on the ESPN Top 10 by a Kobe highlight after a two-day reign as the top play. Why I know this despite not watching Sportscenter often? One of my high school friends was celebrating it, as he is a Marquette fan and hated a Badger highlight being #1. Within minutes, Sam Dekker defended the Badgers' honor. Atta boy, Sam! The Badger have their final home game of the season against Northwestern, who are limping into the game at 16-11 (6-10 Big Ten) after having NCAA Tournament aspirations mere weeks ago.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-58 Badger victory in 56 possessions, with an 8% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 13-point victory.


Northwestern Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G 5'10" Michael Thompson 38.3 15.7 1.9 4.3 1.5 0.0 111.9 22.5 15.3 81.6% 53.7% 36.9% 57.5% 2.54 0.9 6.0 25.2 0.0 2.5 2.42
* G 6'5" JerShon Cobb 28.6 8.8 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 103.0 18.0 8.5 75.0% 49.3% 27.6% 44.3% 2.14 2.8 13.7 11.7 0.2 1.8 2.71
* G 6'5" Drew Crawford 30.5 10.3 4.6 1.7 0.9 0.7 97.3 21.0 14.3 57.1% 39.7% 38.7% 49.0% 1.83 4.9 15.4 12.1 2.6 1.8 3.61
* F 6'8" John Shurna 32.1 12.7 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.9 104.1 23.1 13.7 71.4% 43.5% 36.9% 43.3% 4.20 3.4 13.0 15.6 3.3 1.9 2.32
* F/C 6'10" Luka Mirkovic 25.3 8.5 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.5 103.2 21.2 18.6 68.6% 50.0% 40.0% 13.8% 3.21 7.6 17.6 15.4 2.2 0.9 4.54
G 6'3" Alex Marcotullio 20.9 4.8 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 107.6 14.9 21.7 44.4% 52.9% 39.1% 73.0% 1.43 3.9 9.3 20.9 0.6 2.4 4.18
F 6'9" Davide Curletti 14.4 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 103.6 14.7 13.2 75.0% 38.7% 35.7% 31.1% 3.56 3.6 12.9 13.7 3.0 0.5 7.27
F 6'6" Mike Capocci 9.6 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 123.0 11.3 18.5 77.8% 56.3% 33.3% 15.8% 4.74 7.0 13.0 12.7 2.2 3.3 4.44


Wisconsin Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl % Fouls/40
* G 6'1" Jordan Taylor 37.6 19.9 4.3 5.1 0.7 0.1 130.8 28.8 7.4 83.9% 48.8% 42.1% 37.4% 4.58 2.8 13.4 33.9 0.2 1.2 2.77
* G 6'3" Josh Gasser 28.1 4.9 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.1 129.0 11.7 15.7 76.9% 58.1% 37.5% 43.6% 2.36 5.4 14.9 18.0 0.2 1.0 3.22
* F/G 6'6" Tim Jarmusz 25.9 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 130.4 9.6 9.4 100.0% 40.0% 34.1% 89.1% 3.04 5.5 5.8 8.8 0.3 1.2 1.75
* F 6'10" Jon Leuer 35.3 18.5 7.6 1.6 0.4 0.5 110.8 30.6 11.4 92.6% 51.2% 31.1% 26.9% 2.38 6.3 24.0 12.3 1.5 0.8 2.42
* F 6'8" Keaton Nankivil 32.0 11.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 1.1 131.0 17.1 9.4 85.7% 45.8% 49.4% 62.6% 1.71 6.7 13.1 4.2 4.1 1.0 2.92
F 6'6" Mike Bruesewitz 15.8 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 109.1 14.9 16.0 85.7% 54.5% 26.1% 51.1% 1.56 9.1 7.2 8.6 0.9 1.4 3.88
G/F 6'6" Ryan Evans 10.3 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 91.7 17.4 18.4 83.3% 39.4% - 0.0% 3.64 4.3 14.7 4.0 2.2 1.8 4.39
G/F 6'4" Rob Wilson 8.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 50.1 15.1 15.7 100.0% 22.2% 0.0% 55.0% 2.00 1.5 9.6 6.2 0.0 0.7 4.94
F/C 6'10" Jared Berggren 6.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 77.6 15.3 11.1 50.0% 41.7% 0.0% 33.3% 2.22 6.6 13.6 4.7 9.7 0.0 7.71


Northwestern Big Ten Stats:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 105.0 (#7) 62.8 (#6) 16.0 (#3) 25.1 (#10) 28.4 (#10) 36.0 (#6) 47.9 (#11) 71.7 (#7) 12.8 (#10) 7.5 (#5)
Defense 113.7 (#11) 62.8 (#6) 18.9 (#3) 65.6 (#10) 40.4 (#10) 38.6 (#9) 55.9 (#11) 70.0 (#3) 8.5 (#6) 9.7 (#2)


Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:

Efficiency Pace TO % Reb % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 117.8 (#1) 56.2 (#11) 12.1 (#1) 30.4 (#8) 28.6 (#9) 36.9 (#5) 48.7 (#8) 85.8 (#1) 7.2 (#1) 5.9 (#1)
Defense 105.0 (#4) 56.2 (#11) 15.5 (#9) 72.5 (#1) 32.4 (#6) 34.6 (#3) 48.7 (#5) 77.0 (#11) 7.5 (#7) 5.5 (#11)


My Predictions:
1. The Badgers attempt more than 14 free throws. Northwestern fouls a lot.

2. The Badgers turn the ball over less than 10% of the possessions. Wisconsin overachieves against Northwestern decent turnover-producing ability.

3. Leuer scores more than 20. Luka Mirkovic may drain a 17 footer in the first 2 minutes of the game and act like the shot just won the national championship, but Jon easily dominates in the match-up.


My Expectations: The Badgers blowout Northwestern by a score of 73-52 in 57 possessions.

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