Northwestern Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: The Badgers escaped a terrible shooting day in Ann Arbor with great/lucky shot from Josh Gasser. Just today, Gasser's 3 was overtaken on the ESPN Top 10 by a Kobe highlight after a two-day reign as the top play. Why I know this despite not watching Sportscenter often? One of my high school friends was celebrating it, as he is a Marquette fan and hated a Badger highlight being #1. Within minutes, Sam Dekker defended the Badgers' honor. Atta boy, Sam! The Badger have their final home game of the season against Northwestern, who are limping into the game at 16-11 (6-10 Big Ten) after having NCAA Tournament aspirations mere weeks ago.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-58 Badger victory in 56 possessions, with an 8% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 13-point victory.


Northwestern Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	5'10"	Michael Thompson	38.3	15.7	1.9	4.3	1.5	0.0	111.9	22.5	15.3	81.6%	53.7%	36.9%	57.5%	2.54	0.9	6.0	25.2	0.0	2.5	2.42
* G	6'5"	JerShon Cobb	28.6	8.8	3.4	1.6	0.8	0.1	103.0	18.0	8.5	75.0%	49.3%	27.6%	44.3%	2.14	2.8	13.7	11.7	0.2	1.8	2.71
* G	6'5"	Drew Crawford	30.5	10.3	4.6	1.7	0.9	0.7	97.3	21.0	14.3	57.1%	39.7%	38.7%	49.0%	1.83	4.9	15.4	12.1	2.6	1.8	3.61
* F	6'8"	John Shurna	32.1	12.7	3.9	2.3	1.0	0.9	104.1	23.1	13.7	71.4%	43.5%	36.9%	43.3%	4.20	3.4	13.0	15.6	3.3	1.9	2.32
* F/C	6'10"	Luka Mirkovic	25.3	8.5	4.8	1.8	0.4	0.5	103.2	21.2	18.6	68.6%	50.0%	40.0%	13.8%	3.21	7.6	17.6	15.4	2.2	0.9	4.54
G	6'3"	Alex Marcotullio	20.9	4.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	0.1	107.6	14.9	21.7	44.4%	52.9%	39.1%	73.0%	1.43	3.9	9.3	20.9	0.6	2.4	4.18
F	6'9"	Davide Curletti	14.4	3.2	1.8	1.0	0.1	0.4	103.6	14.7	13.2	75.0%	38.7%	35.7%	31.1%	3.56	3.6	12.9	13.7	3.0	0.5	7.27
F	6'6"	Mike Capocci	9.6	1.8	1.4	0.6	0.5	0.2	123.0	11.3	18.5	77.8%	56.3%	33.3%	15.8%	4.74	7.0	13.0	12.7	2.2	3.3	4.44

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	37.6	19.9	4.3	5.1	0.7	0.1	130.8	28.8	7.4	83.9%	48.8%	42.1%	37.4%	4.58	2.8	13.4	33.9	0.2	1.2	2.77
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	28.1	4.9	4.1	2.5	0.4	0.1	129.0	11.7	15.7	76.9%	58.1%	37.5%	43.6%	2.36	5.4	14.9	18.0	0.2	1.0	3.22
* F/G	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	25.9	4.0	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	130.4	9.6	9.4	100.0%	40.0%	34.1%	89.1%	3.04	5.5	5.8	8.8	0.3	1.2	1.75
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	35.3	18.5	7.6	1.6	0.4	0.5	110.8	30.6	11.4	92.6%	51.2%	31.1%	26.9%	2.38	6.3	24.0	12.3	1.5	0.8	2.42
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	32.0	11.7	4.5	0.6	0.5	1.1	131.0	17.1	9.4	85.7%	45.8%	49.4%	62.6%	1.71	6.7	13.1	4.2	4.1	1.0	2.92
F	6'6"	Mike Bruesewitz	15.8	3.2	1.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	109.1	14.9	16.0	85.7%	54.5%	26.1%	51.1%	1.56	9.1	7.2	8.6	0.9	1.4	3.88
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	10.3	2.4	1.4	0.2	0.3	0.2	91.7	17.4	18.4	83.3%	39.4%	-	0.0%	3.64	4.3	14.7	4.0	2.2	1.8	4.39
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	8.1	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	50.1	15.1	15.7	100.0%	22.2%	0.0%	55.0%	2.00	1.5	9.6	6.2	0.0	0.7	4.94
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	6.9	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.6	77.6	15.3	11.1	50.0%	41.7%	0.0%	33.3%	2.22	6.6	13.6	4.7	9.7	0.0	7.71

Northwestern Big Ten Stats:

	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	105.0 (#7)	62.8 (#6)	16.0 (#3)	25.1 (#10)	28.4 (#10)	36.0 (#6)	47.9 (#11)	71.7 (#7)	12.8 (#10)	7.5 (#5)
Defense	113.7 (#11)	62.8 (#6)	18.9 (#3)	65.6 (#10)	40.4 (#10)	38.6 (#9)	55.9 (#11)	70.0 (#3)	8.5 (#6)	9.7 (#2)

Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:

	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	117.8 (#1)	56.2 (#11)	12.1 (#1)	30.4 (#8)	28.6 (#9)	36.9 (#5)	48.7 (#8)	85.8 (#1)	7.2 (#1)	5.9 (#1)
Defense	105.0 (#4)	56.2 (#11)	15.5 (#9)	72.5 (#1)	32.4 (#6)	34.6 (#3)	48.7 (#5)	77.0 (#11)	7.5 (#7)	5.5 (#11)

My Predictions:
1. The Badgers attempt more than 14 free throws. Northwestern fouls a lot.

2. The Badgers turn the ball over less than 10% of the possessions. Wisconsin overachieves against Northwestern decent turnover-producing ability.

3. Leuer scores more than 20. Luka Mirkovic may drain a 17 footer in the first 2 minutes of the game and act like the shot just won the national championship, but Jon easily dominates in the match-up.


My Expectations: The Badgers blowout Northwestern by a score of 73-52 in 57 possessions.