Gold Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW withstood a late charge to defeat Marquette 69-64 in Milwaukee. UW had been scoring 71 points per game and giving up 54.

Was it this year that UW was finally going to decline and MU rise up now that Hughes and Bohannon are gone? No, wait, that was last year after Landry and Krabbenhoft. Or was it the year before when Butch, Flowers and Steimsma left? No, it is next year without Leuer and Nankivil. Yeah, that’s the ticket …

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had 5 extra offensive rebounds, which helped get a 12 point advantage on second chance points, to drive home the win.

Pace: The game had 58 possessions. UW averages 60 possessions. This relatively low possession count was undoubtedly due to UW grabbing many offensive rebounds and killing the clock late in the second half.

Efficiency: Was it good offense or good defense? Absolutely good offense and not-so-good defense. UW scored 1.19 PPP, slightly better than our early-season-lesser-opponent-inflated 1.18 PPP. MU scored 1.10 PPP, more than the .89 PPP we have been giving up and too many to expect to win a lot of games.

Shooting: UW won because we shot a higher quantity of shots, not more accurately. UW got up ten more threes and one more two point shot. These extra shots from the floor lead to UW scoring 10 extra points from the floor. MU shot 8 more free throws, but they were not enough.

eFG%: Both teams shot well. MU had an eFG% of 52% and UW 51%. UW has been at 52% and our opponents 43%.

3 pt shooting: MU hit 44% to UW’s 32%. But, UW took 10 more shots, made two more, and scored 6 extra points beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: Both teams were comparably efficient inside the arc. MU was 18 of 37 for 49%. UW tried one more shot, 38, and made two more, 20 for 53%. That got UW 4 more points.

1pt shooting: MU got to the line 22 times and made 16 for 73%. UW shot only 14 and made 11 for 79%. MU got 5 back at the line, which was not enough.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 121 Opponent Attempts: 156 Difference: -35

I think we can kiss this one goodbye. We will need a different Badger Drinking Game regular.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 26% 19%

Mid Range 12% 3%

Paint 46% 53%

FT Line 16% 25%

Apparently, MU is not big on midrange shooting.

Rebounding: Neither team protected their defensive glass well. MU did a worst job.

UW Defensive end: MU picked up 37% of their misses. That is extraordinarily high percentage for a UW opponent. The national average is 33% and we are typically closer to 26% surrendered to our opponents. MU had 9 second chance points.

UW Offensive End: When UW shot and missed, UW got 45% of their misses. That is simply outstanding. UW picked up 21 second chance points.

Turnovers: Each team had 10 turnovers, or 17%. No advantage gained either way. But, MU scored 12 points off turnovers to UW’s 10.

Opportunity Index: UW had a plus a plus 5 OI. UW had 5 extra offensive rebounds that netted UW 21 second chance points, 12 more than MU. Each team had 10 turnovers, but MU scored an extra two points off of turnovers.

Fouls: UW fouled 19 times to MU’s 17. But, MU got to the line more effectively getting 22 FTA’s to UW’s 14.

Playing time: UW went 8 deep, with the starters all getting 22 or more and Evans (15), Jarmusz (12) and Wilson getting (16). Berggren had 9.

Buzz played 7 ten or more. Strangely, two starters –Otule (8) and Smith (6) did not crack double digits. Perhaps an MU fan can explain Buzz’s strategy. Were these bad matchups, did they play poorly, or does Buzz just like to start these guys?

Notable Performances: Taylor had a great line. He scored 21 on 5-8 from the floor, 2-5 from deep, and 9-11 from the line. He played 32 minutes and only had one turnover. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Leuer had a good, not great, line. He scored 17 on 15 FGA’s and added 6 boards, two offensive. He was tagged with 3 turnovers. Good job, Jon.

Keaton had another highly efficient day. KN scored 12 on 7 FGA’s, 2-3 from deep and 5 boards, 2 offensive. Keaton, my people are still talking about the last few games around the fire …

Rob Wilson played 16 turnover-free minutes. He scored 3 including an important FT late. Rob, keep coming on … my people have a warm spot for you.

Brett Valentyn had a classic “trillion”. A trillion, coined by Badger Great Scott Roth, I believe, had one minute played and all zeros after that. Smith nearly matched him with two minutes played and all zeros.

Jared Berggren scored 8 in nine minutes. I bet MU was wondering who this guy is and why can he score on so many post moves. My people are planning on lighting many a fire in your honor in the future.

For MU, Buycks scored 13 on only 8 shots. Buycks has not traditionally been a highly effective player. Butler had 15, but needed 14 shots to get there. He has traditionally been a highly efficient player, but not so much in this one.

DJO had 8, but was 1-9 from the floor.

Reggie Smith had no points and 3 turnovers in 6 minutes. I think I now know why he got such little playing time.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Badgers turnover the ball over less than 19% of the time. Marquette’s pressure defense won’t force the Badgers into a ton of turnovers. Hit. 17%.

2. Jon Leuer scores more than 25 points. I don’t think MU can stop him. Miss. He got 17.

3. Badgers grab more than 36% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% of the opportunities on defense. The Badgers prevail as victors on the boards. Hit and miss. UW got a whopping 45% of their offensive misses but could only corral 63% of their misses.

The Badgers pull out the victory over the Gold 70-66 in 65 possessions. Close. 69-64 in 58.

Closing Thoughts: Bragging rights are right where they belong. My goal is for UW to win 70% or more of this series. We will need a few more wins in the BC to make that happen while holding serve at the Herb Garden.

It will be interesting to see where these two teams end up in their conferences. MU had a horribly unbalanced team for several years (guard heavy). So long, in fact, that we now consider it normal. If MU stumbles in their conference, this will not end up being a “very good win,” or not a signature win for sure. If they make the big dance, the win will look better.

Gold Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Well here it is! The Super Bowl of the season for Marquette and those guys to the East from Wisconsin. Just kidding. The Gold and the Badgers come into the game with identical 7-2 records, with Marquette coming off a 26-point victory over TAMU-CC, and Wisconsin coming off a 21-point win over UW-Milwaukee. The Hilltoppers may be short a few guys, as Joe Fulce has a knee injury that he sustained against TAMU-CC, and Dwight Buycks has an ankle injury that prevented him from playing in that same game.

Forums: Scout MU Scoop

What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 63-62 Badger victory in 61 possessions, with a 47% chance of upset.

Sagarin predicts the game as a pick-em (technically Marquette as a 0.32-point favorite).

Gold Likely Rotation

*G – 6’2” JR Darius Johnson-Odom (14.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 105.8 OR, 24% Poss, 27% Shot, 14% TO, 4.6 FTR, 43% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’0” FR Reggie Smith (1.6 PPG, 1.9 APG, 1.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 71.6 OR, 20% Poss, 10% Shot, 45% TO, 7.5 FTR, 50% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’4” FR Vander Blue (9.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, 89.6 OR, 20% Poss, 20% Shot, 24% TO, 3.2 FTR, 20% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G/F – 6’7” SR Jimmy Butler (15.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 113.5 OR, 23% Poss, 24% Shot, 12% TO, 6.1 FTR, 13% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’11” SO Chris Otule (6.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 83.3 OR, 15% Poss, 18% Shot, 16% TO, 3.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’3” SR Dwight Buycks (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 105.8 OR, 20% Poss, 20% Shot, 24% TO, 2.2 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’6” JR Jae Crowder (11.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 1.0 APG, 125.8 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 6% TO, 4.4 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’1” SO Junior Cadougan (2.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 RPG, 84.9 OR, 13% Poss, 7% Shot, 36% TO, 8.1 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’7” SR Joe Fulce (4.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 154.9 OR, 15% Poss, 16% Shot, 8% TO, 5.0 FTR, 10% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’8” FR Davante Gardner (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 123.3 OR, 30% Poss, 33% Shot, 12% TO, 5.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’7” SO Erik Williams (2.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 107.9 OR, 17% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 3.1 FTR, 8% of FGAs are 3PT)

PLAYER TRAITS

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Jimmy Butler = 25%

Vander Blue = 25%

Reggie Smith = 25%

Junior Cadougan = 25%

Erik Williams = 0%

Joe Fulce = 0%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

Dwight Buycks = 36%

Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Jae Crowder = 40%

TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Junior Cadougan = 42%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)

Dwight Buycks = 54%

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Chris Otule = 83%

Joe Fulce = 78%

Reggie Smith = 75%

Erik Williams = 67%

Davante Gardner = 62%

FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Vander Blue = 58%

Jae Crowder = 56%

Junior Cadougan = 54%

Chris Otule = 40%

Reggie Smith = 33%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)

Darius Johnson-Odom = 78%

Jimmy Butler = 78%

Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Joe Fulce = 100%

Erik Williams = 100%

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Chris Otule = 17%

Erik Williams = 17%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

Joe Fulce = 30%

Jae Crowder = 20%

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Jae Crowder = 10%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Davante Gardner = 20%

Joe Fulce = 14%

STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Jae Crowder = 4.3%

Reggie Smith = 3.9%

Vander Blue = 3.7%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None

BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

Davante Gardner = 5%

Reggie Smith = 3.6%

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

Chris Otule = 14.3%

ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Junior Cadougan = 25%

Reggie Smith = 22%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

Dwight Buycks = 28%

Demetri McCamey (+30%)

None

POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Joe Fulce = 15%

Chris Otule = 15%

Junior Cadougan = 13%

Brian Butch (24-28%)

Darius Johnson-Odom = 24%

Alando Tucker (+28%)

Davante Gardner = 30%

SPECIAL: WHERE ARE THEY NOW???

D.J. Newbill: Southern Mississippi

Youssoupha Mbao: Marshall

Patrick Hazel: Boston University

Brett Roseboro: St. Bonaventure

Jeronne Maymon: Tennessee

Scott Christopherson: Iowa State

What Marquette is really good at:

1. Rebounding. They are 69^th in offensive rebounding (36.2%) and 83^rd in defensive (70.3%).

3. Taking care of the ball. They turn the ball over three times every 16 possessions, 68^th fewest in the nation.

3. Getting to the charity stripe. They attempt 4 FTs for almost every 9 FGAs, which is 74th in the nation.

4. Forcing TOs. They force one turnover every four possessions (53^rd).

5. Keeping opponents off the line. Their opponents attempt 2 FTAs per 9 FGAs, which is 3^rd in the nation.

6. Two-point shooting. They shoot 56.4% inside the arc, which is 12^th in the nation.

7. Defending inside the arc. They surrender 43.3% inside the arc, good for 67^th.

8. Hiring coaches that are comedic Gold. Example 1, Example 2.

What Marquette is really bad at:

1. Three-point defense. This season, the Gold’s opponents’ have shot a hot 38.7% from deep, which is 49th highest in the country.

2. Three-point shooting. This season, the Hilltoppers have shot a poor 30.7% from deep, which is 260th in the country.

3. Picking a nickname and sticking with it. The school has changed its nickname six times in the past 97 years and even had different sports teams go by different nicknames at the same time.

4. Having proper instruments in their pep band. For some reason they think winds instruments are worth having in a pep band… and they prominently feature an instrument that doubles as a Fisher Price toy.

5. Choosing a mascot. Marquette has a rich tradition of epically bad mascots. They range from the horribly racist to the downright dumb. Then there are the theoretical ones that could have been if they stuck with the name Gold.

6. Playing the right guys in their rotation. Just looking over the Pomeroy individual stats makes me really question Curly’s distribution of minutes. Why Reggie Smith even plays is mind-boggling to me. He’s got the players and the talent to do it, so why he doesn’t slow down the pace a bit and play a 2-guard offense doesn’t make sense. His best offensive players are Fulce, Otule, Gardner, and Crowder. Only one of those four get more than 14 minutes a game. Oh well, I hope it’s what does them in against us.

7. Fielding a football team. Apparently the players favored being in the dance program... And would rather perform zoophilia (SFW and legal, FYI) on the sidelines.

Relative Efficiency:

When Marquette has the ball: They have scored a great 1.13 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.87 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up a great 0.91 PPP this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.17 this season.

Pace: Marquette has played at 73 possessions per game to UW’s 61.

My expectations:

1. Badgers turnover the ball over less than 19% of the time. Marquette’s pressure defense won’t force the Badgers into a ton of turnovers.

2. Jon Leuer scores more than 25 points. I don’t think MU can stop him.

3. Badgers grab more than 36% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% of the opportunities on defense. The Badgers prevail as victors on the boards.

The Badgers pull out the victory over the Gold 70-66 in 65 possessions.