Opening Thoughts: Well here it is! The Super Bowl of the season for Marquette and those guys to the East from Wisconsin. Just kidding. The Gold and the Badgers come into the game with identical 7-2 records, with Marquette coming off a 26-point victory over TAMU-CC, and Wisconsin coming off a 21-point win over UW-Milwaukee. The Hilltoppers may be short a few guys, as Joe Fulce has a knee injury that he sustained against TAMU-CC, and Dwight Buycks has an ankle injury that prevented him from playing in that same game.
What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 63-62 Badger victory in 61 possessions, with a 47% chance of upset.
Sagarin predicts the game as a pick-em (technically Marquette as a 0.32-point favorite).
Gold Likely Rotation
*G – 6’2” JR Darius Johnson-Odom (14.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 105.8 OR, 24% Poss, 27% Shot, 14% TO, 4.6 FTR, 43% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’0” FR Reggie Smith (1.6 PPG, 1.9 APG, 1.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 71.6 OR, 20% Poss, 10% Shot, 45% TO, 7.5 FTR, 50% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’4” FR Vander Blue (9.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, 89.6 OR, 20% Poss, 20% Shot, 24% TO, 3.2 FTR, 20% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G/F – 6’7” SR Jimmy Butler (15.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 113.5 OR, 23% Poss, 24% Shot, 12% TO, 6.1 FTR, 13% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’11” SO Chris Otule (6.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 83.3 OR, 15% Poss, 18% Shot, 16% TO, 3.3 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’3” SR Dwight Buycks (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 105.8 OR, 20% Poss, 20% Shot, 24% TO, 2.2 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’6” JR Jae Crowder (11.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 1.0 APG, 125.8 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 6% TO, 4.4 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’1” SO Junior Cadougan (2.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 RPG, 84.9 OR, 13% Poss, 7% Shot, 36% TO, 8.1 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’7” SR Joe Fulce (4.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 154.9 OR, 15% Poss, 16% Shot, 8% TO, 5.0 FTR, 10% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’8” FR Davante Gardner (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 123.3 OR, 30% Poss, 33% Shot, 12% TO, 5.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’7” SO Erik Williams (2.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 107.9 OR, 17% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 3.1 FTR, 8% of FGAs are 3PT)
PLAYER TRAITS
THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Jeff Jordan (<28%)
Jimmy Butler = 25%
Vander Blue = 25%
Reggie Smith = 25%
Junior Cadougan = 25%
Erik Williams = 0%
Joe Fulce = 0%
Trevon Hughes (35-38%)
Dwight Buycks = 36%
Clayton Hanson (+38%)
Jae Crowder = 40%
TWO-POINT SHOOTING
Kevin Gullikson (<43%)
Junior Cadougan = 42%
Marcus Landry (50-54%)
Dwight Buycks = 54%
Mike Wilkinson (+54%)
Chris Otule = 83%
Joe Fulce = 78%
Reggie Smith = 75%
Erik Williams = 67%
Davante Gardner = 62%
FREE THROW SHOOTING
Alando Tucker (<65%)
Vander Blue = 58%
Jae Crowder = 56%
Junior Cadougan = 54%
Chris Otule = 40%
Reggie Smith = 33%
Kam Taylor (75-82%)
Darius Johnson-Odom = 78%
Jimmy Butler = 78%
Jason Bohannon (+82%)
Joe Fulce = 100%
Erik Williams = 100%
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)
Chris Otule = 17%
Erik Williams = 17%
Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)
Joe Fulce = 30%
Jae Crowder = 20%
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Brian Butch (9-12%)
Jae Crowder = 10%
Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)
Davante Gardner = 20%
Joe Fulce = 14%
STEALING
Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)
Jae Crowder = 4.3%
Reggie Smith = 3.9%
Vander Blue = 3.7%
Mike Kelley (+4.4%)
None
BLOCKING
Brian Butch (3-7%)
Davante Gardner = 5%
Reggie Smith = 3.6%
Greg Stiemsma (+7%)
Chris Otule = 14.3%
ASSISTS
Devin Harris (20-25%)
Junior Cadougan = 25%
Reggie Smith = 22%
Jordan Taylor (25-30%)
Dwight Buycks = 28%
Demetri McCamey (+30%)
None
POSSESSION USAGE
Jason Chappell (<15%)
Joe Fulce = 15%
Chris Otule = 15%
Junior Cadougan = 13%
Brian Butch (24-28%)
Darius Johnson-Odom = 24%
Alando Tucker (+28%)
Davante Gardner = 30%
SPECIAL: WHERE ARE THEY NOW???
D.J. Newbill: Southern Mississippi
Youssoupha Mbao: Marshall
Patrick Hazel: Boston University
Brett Roseboro: St. Bonaventure
Jeronne Maymon: Tennessee
Scott Christopherson: Iowa State
What Marquette is really good at:
1. Rebounding. They are 69th in offensive rebounding (36.2%) and 83rd in defensive (70.3%).
3. Taking care of the ball. They turn the ball over three times every 16 possessions, 68th fewest in the nation.
3. Getting to the charity stripe. They attempt 4 FTs for almost every 9 FGAs, which is 74th in the nation.
4. Forcing TOs. They force one turnover every four possessions (53rd).
5. Keeping opponents off the line. Their opponents attempt 2 FTAs per 9 FGAs, which is 3rd in the nation.
6. Two-point shooting. They shoot 56.4% inside the arc, which is 12th in the nation.
7. Defending inside the arc. They surrender 43.3% inside the arc, good for 67th.
8. Hiring coaches that are comedic Gold. Example 1, Example 2.
What Marquette is really bad at:
1. Three-point defense. This season, the Gold’s opponents’ have shot a hot 38.7% from deep, which is 49th highest in the country.
2. Three-point shooting. This season, the Hilltoppers have shot a poor 30.7% from deep, which is 260th in the country.
3. Picking a nickname and sticking with it. The school has changed its nickname six times in the past 97 years and even had different sports teams go by different nicknames at the same time.
4. Having proper instruments in their pep band. For some reason they think winds instruments are worth having in a pep band… and they prominently feature an instrument that doubles as a Fisher Price toy.
5. Choosing a mascot. Marquette has a rich tradition of epically bad mascots. They range from the horribly racist to the downright dumb. Then there are the theoretical ones that could have been if they stuck with the name Gold.
6. Playing the right guys in their rotation. Just looking over the Pomeroy individual stats makes me really question Curly’s distribution of minutes. Why Reggie Smith even plays is mind-boggling to me. He’s got the players and the talent to do it, so why he doesn’t slow down the pace a bit and play a 2-guard offense doesn’t make sense. His best offensive players are Fulce, Otule, Gardner, and Crowder. Only one of those four get more than 14 minutes a game. Oh well, I hope it’s what does them in against us.
7. Fielding a football team. Apparently the players favored being in the dance program... And would rather perform zoophilia (SFW and legal, FYI) on the sidelines.
Relative Efficiency:
When Marquette has the ball: They have scored a great 1.13 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.87 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up a great 0.91 PPP this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.17 this season.
Pace: Marquette has played at 73 possessions per game to UW’s 61.
My expectations:
1. Badgers turnover the ball over less than 19% of the time. Marquette’s pressure defense won’t force the Badgers into a ton of turnovers.
2. Jon Leuer scores more than 25 points. I don’t think MU can stop him.
3. Badgers grab more than 36% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% of the opportunities on defense. The Badgers prevail as victors on the boards.
The Badgers pull out the victory over the Gold 70-66 in 65 possessions.
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