Saturday, December 11, 2010

Gold Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW withstood a late charge to defeat Marquette 69-64 in Milwaukee. UW had been scoring 71 points per game and giving up 54.

Was it this year that UW was finally going to decline and MU rise up now that Hughes and Bohannon are gone? No, wait, that was last year after Landry and Krabbenhoft. Or was it the year before when Butch, Flowers and Steimsma left? No, it is next year without Leuer and Nankivil. Yeah, that’s the ticket …

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had 5 extra offensive rebounds, which helped get a 12 point advantage on second chance points, to drive home the win.

Pace: The game had 58 possessions. UW averages 60 possessions. This relatively low possession count was undoubtedly due to UW grabbing many offensive rebounds and killing the clock late in the second half.

Efficiency: Was it good offense or good defense? Absolutely good offense and not-so-good defense. UW scored 1.19 PPP, slightly better than our early-season-lesser-opponent-inflated 1.18 PPP. MU scored 1.10 PPP, more than the .89 PPP we have been giving up and too many to expect to win a lot of games.

Shooting: UW won because we shot a higher quantity of shots, not more accurately. UW got up ten more threes and one more two point shot. These extra shots from the floor lead to UW scoring 10 extra points from the floor. MU shot 8 more free throws, but they were not enough.

eFG%: Both teams shot well. MU had an eFG% of 52% and UW 51%. UW has been at 52% and our opponents 43%.

3 pt shooting: MU hit 44% to UW’s 32%. But, UW took 10 more shots, made two more, and scored 6 extra points beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: Both teams were comparably efficient inside the arc. MU was 18 of 37 for 49%. UW tried one more shot, 38, and made two more, 20 for 53%. That got UW 4 more points.

1pt shooting: MU got to the line 22 times and made 16 for 73%. UW shot only 14 and made 11 for 79%. MU got 5 back at the line, which was not enough.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 121 Opponent Attempts: 156 Difference: -35

I think we can kiss this one goodbye. We will need a different Badger Drinking Game regular.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 26% 19%

Mid Range 12% 3%

Paint 46% 53%

FT Line 16% 25%

Apparently, MU is not big on midrange shooting.

Rebounding: Neither team protected their defensive glass well. MU did a worst job.

UW Defensive end: MU picked up 37% of their misses. That is extraordinarily high percentage for a UW opponent. The national average is 33% and we are typically closer to 26% surrendered to our opponents. MU had 9 second chance points.

UW Offensive End: When UW shot and missed, UW got 45% of their misses. That is simply outstanding. UW picked up 21 second chance points.

Turnovers: Each team had 10 turnovers, or 17%. No advantage gained either way. But, MU scored 12 points off turnovers to UW’s 10.

Opportunity Index: UW had a plus a plus 5 OI. UW had 5 extra offensive rebounds that netted UW 21 second chance points, 12 more than MU. Each team had 10 turnovers, but MU scored an extra two points off of turnovers.

Fouls: UW fouled 19 times to MU’s 17. But, MU got to the line more effectively getting 22 FTA’s to UW’s 14.

Playing time: UW went 8 deep, with the starters all getting 22 or more and Evans (15), Jarmusz (12) and Wilson getting (16). Berggren had 9.

Buzz played 7 ten or more. Strangely, two starters –Otule (8) and Smith (6) did not crack double digits. Perhaps an MU fan can explain Buzz’s strategy. Were these bad matchups, did they play poorly, or does Buzz just like to start these guys?

Notable Performances: Taylor had a great line. He scored 21 on 5-8 from the floor, 2-5 from deep, and 9-11 from the line. He played 32 minutes and only had one turnover. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Leuer had a good, not great, line. He scored 17 on 15 FGA’s and added 6 boards, two offensive. He was tagged with 3 turnovers. Good job, Jon.

Keaton had another highly efficient day. KN scored 12 on 7 FGA’s, 2-3 from deep and 5 boards, 2 offensive. Keaton, my people are still talking about the last few games around the fire …

Rob Wilson played 16 turnover-free minutes. He scored 3 including an important FT late. Rob, keep coming on … my people have a warm spot for you.

Brett Valentyn had a classic “trillion”. A trillion, coined by Badger Great Scott Roth, I believe, had one minute played and all zeros after that. Smith nearly matched him with two minutes played and all zeros.

Jared Berggren scored 8 in nine minutes. I bet MU was wondering who this guy is and why can he score on so many post moves. My people are planning on lighting many a fire in your honor in the future.

For MU, Buycks scored 13 on only 8 shots. Buycks has not traditionally been a highly effective player. Butler had 15, but needed 14 shots to get there. He has traditionally been a highly efficient player, but not so much in this one.

DJO had 8, but was 1-9 from the floor.

Reggie Smith had no points and 3 turnovers in 6 minutes. I think I now know why he got such little playing time.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Badgers turnover the ball over less than 19% of the time. Marquette’s pressure defense won’t force the Badgers into a ton of turnovers. Hit. 17%.

2. Jon Leuer scores more than 25 points. I don’t think MU can stop him. Miss. He got 17.

3. Badgers grab more than 36% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% of the opportunities on defense. The Badgers prevail as victors on the boards. Hit and miss. UW got a whopping 45% of their offensive misses but could only corral 63% of their misses.

The Badgers pull out the victory over the Gold 70-66 in 65 possessions. Close. 69-64 in 58.

Closing Thoughts: Bragging rights are right where they belong. My goal is for UW to win 70% or more of this series. We will need a few more wins in the BC to make that happen while holding serve at the Herb Garden.

It will be interesting to see where these two teams end up in their conferences. MU had a horribly unbalanced team for several years (guard heavy). So long, in fact, that we now consider it normal. If MU stumbles in their conference, this will not end up being a “very good win,” or not a signature win for sure. If they make the big dance, the win will look better.

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