North Dakota Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW thumped an inferior North Dakota team 85 to 53. Since ND is just making the jump to D1, we must cut them some slack and wish them well in their quest.



Yet another game that I could not watch on TV. Ugh. I thought the BTN was supposed to fix that. It torques me that ESPN would buy the game rights and then shuffle it off to ESPN3 when we have a perfectly good BTN available.



So, once again, this analysis is strictly from the box score, with the exception of seeing Evan’s dunk on ESPN top ten.



Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had our best shooting day of the early season hitting season best percentages beyond the arc, inside the arc, and at the line. Bo will find some “teaching moments” trying to reduce turnovers and improve defensive rebounding.



Pace: As always, you have to know the pace of the game to put everything else in context. This game was at 63 possessions. That is much closer to our usual pace of around 60. The previous two games were at 66 and 71.



Efficiency: Was this blow out win because of good offense or good defense? Both. UW scored at 1.35 PPP, which is excellent, but less than the ridiculous 1.50 of PVA&M.



UW held ND to .84 PPP. PVA&M and Minnesota State each has .83 PPP. So, the defense has been consistent and very good.



Shooting: UW had our best day so far this year outside the arc, inside the arc, and at the line.



eFG%: For those unaware, eFG% is like your regular FG% but it gives a 3Pt basket a weight of 1.5 since it is worth more than a two point shot.



ND shot an eFG% of 43%. That is good defense by UW, or poor marksmanship by ND. UW shot 67% for our best performance of the year.



3 pt shooting: ND took two extra shots from deep, 13 to UW’s 11, but made one fewer, 4 to UW’s 5. ND hit a pedestrian 31% while UW was a robust 41%. UW picked up 3 points outside the arc.



2pt shooting: ND hit only 14 of 34 shots inside the arc for 41%. UW, meanwhile, sizzled at 67% having made 26 of 39, including the aforementioned Evans dunk. This allowed UW to pick up 24 points inside the arc.



Most of the inside the arc points were also inside the paint. UW outscored ND 40 to 22 in the paint and 12 to 6 on midrange shots.



1pt shooting: ND got to the line 19 times and made 13 for 69%. Not very good shooting, but not the worst either. UW smoked them at the line making 18 of 21 for 86%. This gave UW an extra 5 points from the line.



Rebounding: When ND shot and missed, which they did often, the results were a draw. When UW shot and missed, UW cleaned up their own misses effectively.



UW Defensive end: ND provided 32 rebounding opportunities on their misses and picked up 10, for 31%. Regular readers will note that 33% is the national average, but UW typically holds their opponents to around 26%. So, this was more or less a draw, and not up to UW’s typical high standards for glass defense.



UW Offensive End: UW’s excellent marksmanship allowed for fewer rebounding chances. While ND gave themselves 32 chances, UW had only 19 chances to follow their misses. UW managed to get 10, or 53%. That is remarkable for a UW team, although less than the unobtainable standard of 65% against Prairie View.



Turnovers: ND had 16 TO’s, or 25% while UW had 13 for 21%. UW typically is near the top in the nation at avoiding TO’s. This will get Bo’s ire up at practices trying to cut down TO’s, I would think.



Opportunity Index: The OI was a modest +2 for the game. ND had 10 offensive rebounds to UW’s 9. But, UW had three extra chances via turnovers.



This game points out a flaw in OI. It rewards teams that miss shots. In this game, ND missed an extra 13 reboundable shots. They did an inferior job of offensive rebounding (31% to 53%) but scored well in the index through quantity (10 to UW’s 9).



Fouls: Both teams fouled 18 times. Last year, UW average 16 and our opponents 17.



Playing time: Bo went 8 deep (10 or more minutes) with Valentyn almost getting there with 9 minutes. Bruesewitz and Gasser started. Evans (21) and Jarmusz (23) played starter’s minutes.



Notable Performances: UW had 5 players in double figures:



* Leuer – 22 on 10 FGA’s, 8-8 from the line, but 3 unfortunate turnovers
* Keaton – 17 on 7-8 shooting, 2-2 from the line
* Taylor – 10 on 7 FGA, 2-2 from the line
* Evans – 11 on 6 FGA’s, 5-7 from the line
* Jarmusz – 10 on 4-4 field goals, 2-2 from deep



Leuer has been a machine so far, a finely tuned machine that is dominating opponents. Nankivil reminded everyone that he is a threat on offense. Jarmusz was rock solid and highly efficient. Tim, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people. Keep that efficiency high.



Evans took the fouling bug and handed it to Valentyn. Brett picked up 4 fouls in 9 minutes. That is reminiscent of my high school career. If I got in a game and the only thing I could reliably do was foul, I wanted to get my money’s worth.



No individual had a particularly good day on the boards, but the team did very well. Leuer, Gasser, and Evans all had 6 boards.



For ND, Troy Huff scored 21 points, which is impressive until you see how he got there. He need to take 15 FGA’s and 13 FTA ( 6-15, 9-13 from the line).



Grading Shetown’s Predictions



1. The Badgers shoot more than 25 three-pointers. The Sioux are use a terrible zone defense that leaves shooters wide open for easy 3s, much like PVAMU did on Sunday, which resulted in 31 attempts. Miss. UW only took 11, but made 5. But then, why bother when you are hitting 67% of your shots inside the arc?



2. Leuer nets more than 25. He was unstoppable against Prairie View and North Dakota is an even smaller team. Miss. He got 22. But his efficiency was excellent. Maybe Keaton could have loaned him a few shots so he could have met your prediction.



3. Ryan Evans limits his fouls to three or less. He’s been really foul-happy the last two games and I expect him to settle down in this one. Hit. He had one. But, he passed the cursed evil fouling talisman (I think a talisman is supposed to ward off evil, so does anyone know what you call a thing that brings evil upon you?) to Valentyn.



4. The Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. The Badgers destroyed PVAMU on the offensive glass with grabbing a nation-leading 67.5% of the rebounding opportunities. Shirley, it will regress to the norm over the course of the season, but Ginger ‘Fro, Will Smith, and Gasser will assure the numbers stay inflated for at least another few days. Hit. They got a remarkable 53%. I thought this was an aggressive prediction, but they easily topped it. And, my names not Shirley.



The Badgers beat up the Bison-rejects by the score of 93-50 in 65 possessions. Hit, close enough. UW won 85-53 in 63 possessions. And I think they are the Sioux.





Closing Thoughts: UW pounded another low level opponent with ease.



I thought I would try a new feature.



Unwarranted Conclusions Based Upon Playing Inferior Competition Early In the Year:



1. Bo will shuffle his starting lineup every game
2. Bo will go 8 to 10 deep (playing more than 10 minutes a game)
3. UW will routinely score 1.30 + PPP per game and hold opponents to under .90 PPP
4. UW will hit 61% of our shots inside the arc, and 40% from deep
5. Bo will have the team crash the offensive glass and be one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation



It is hard to know what to make of these games. The UNLV game may provide some insight.

North Dakota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: On to the next one… The Badgers just took down to the 12th worst team in the nation per Ken Pomeroy, and are now taking on the 6th worst team in the nation. The Fighting Sue of North Dakota are starting their 2nd season as a Division 1 team. Last season they played a Princeton-style offense but have apparently changed to a more up-tempo offense. Defensively, their Ken Pom stats point to them employing a very slow-rotating zone. Their opponents shot the third most treys per shot attempt last season, and only 7 teams gave up a higher assist-to-made shot ratio too.





Forum to Visit: Sioux Sports





What the expert nerd says:



Ken Pomeroy predicts an 82-48 Badger victory in 60 possessions, with a 0.2% chance of an upset.





North Dakota Likely Rotation (Last Season’s Statistics or First Game Statistics)

*G – 6’1” FR Jamal Webb (2.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 100% FT, 40.0 OR, 20% TO, 10.0 FTR, 66% of FGAs are 3PT)



*G – 6’2” FR Josh Schuler (7.0 PPG, 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 50% 2PT, 77.8 OR, 11% TO, 0.0 FTR, 50% of FGAs are 3PT)



*G – 6’8” JR Patrick Mitchell (9.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 38% 3PT, 97.8 OR, 21% Poss, 26% Shot, 16% TO, 5% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 2.9 FTR, 65% of FGAs are 3PT)



*G/F – 6’6” SR Chris Clausen (6.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 38% 3PT, 50% 2PT, 94.8 OR, 18% Poss, 20% Shot, 23% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.1 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)



*F – 6’5” SO Spencer Goodman (5.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 82.8 OR, 19% Poss, 17% Shot, 29% TO, 6% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 6.0 FTR, 33% of FGAs are 3PT)



G/F – 6’4” FR Troy Huff (18.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 50% 2PT, 33% 3PT, 83% FT, 138.5 OR, 8% TO, 4.6 FTR, 23% of FGAs are 3PT)



G – 5’10” FR Aaron Anderson (10.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 100% 2PT, 100% FT, 125.0 OR, 38% TO, 10.0 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)



G - 6’2” SO Nick Haugen (5.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 51% 2PT, 93.2 OR, 16% Poss, 16% Shot, 28% TO, 3% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.0 FTR, 45% of FGAs are 3PT)



F - 6’7” SR Derek Benter (6.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 46% 3PT, 77% FT, 95.1 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 23% TO, 4% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 3.9 FTR, 30% of FGAs are 3PT)



Key:

OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession (100.8 is average)

Poss = possession usage when on the court

Shot = share of shots taken when on the court

TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (20.4% is average)

OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)

DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)

FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.77 is average)



Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%





What North Dakota is really good at:



1. Getting to the free throw line. Last season, they averaged 9 free throw attempts per 20 field goal attempts, good for 28th in the country. Indiana was at 8 and Purdue was about 7.5.



2. Defensive Rebounding. They grabbed a hair less than 70% of all the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, good for 69th in the nation. Wisconsin was a hair below 74%, or 2nd in the nation.





What North Dakota is really bad at:



1. Taking care of the ball. They coughed it up on offense a bit more than once every four possessions, making them 6th worst in the country. Even Tom Crean’s Cream team couldn’t match that, as they were only at 23%.



2. Offensive Rebounding. They only grab 27.4% of all rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 322nd. Wisconsin was 249th.



3. Defense. Pick a defensive tempo-free stat, and they were bad at it last season. They were 254th in forcing turnovers, 335th in keeping opponents off the free throw line, 285th in defending 3s, 242nd in defending 2s, and 322nd in defending free throws. All of this culminated to create the second worst defense in the nation… defense ain’t easy for a team named Sue.





Relative efficiency:



When North Dakota has the ball: They scored an awful 0.89 PPP last season, while UW gave up the same last season.



When UW has the ball: They gave up a disgusting 1.20 last season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 last season.





Pace: North Dakota played at 66 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 60.





My expectations:



1. The Badgers shoot more than 25 three-pointers. The Sioux are use a terrible zone defense that leaves shooters wide open for easy 3s, much like PVAMU did on Sunday, which resulted in 31 attempts.



2. Leuer nets more than 25. He was unstoppable against Prairie View and North Dakota is an even smaller team.



3. Ryan Evans limits his fouls to three or less. He’s been really foul-happy the last two games and I expect him to settle down in this one.



4. The Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. The Badgers destroyed PVAMU on the offensive glass with grabbing a nation-leading 67.5% of the rebounding opportunities. Shirley, it will regress to the norm over the course of the season, but Ginger ‘Fro, Will Smith, and Gasser will assure the numbers stay inflated for at least another few days.



The Badgers beat up the Bison-rejects by the score of 93-50 in 65 possessions.