Wednesday, November 17, 2010

North Dakota Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW thumped an inferior North Dakota team 85 to 53. Since ND is just making the jump to D1, we must cut them some slack and wish them well in their quest.

Yet another game that I could not watch on TV. Ugh. I thought the BTN was supposed to fix that. It torques me that ESPN would buy the game rights and then shuffle it off to ESPN3 when we have a perfectly good BTN available.

So, once again, this analysis is strictly from the box score, with the exception of seeing Evan’s dunk on ESPN top ten.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had our best shooting day of the early season hitting season best percentages beyond the arc, inside the arc, and at the line. Bo will find some “teaching moments” trying to reduce turnovers and improve defensive rebounding.

Pace: As always, you have to know the pace of the game to put everything else in context. This game was at 63 possessions. That is much closer to our usual pace of around 60. The previous two games were at 66 and 71.

Efficiency: Was this blow out win because of good offense or good defense? Both. UW scored at 1.35 PPP, which is excellent, but less than the ridiculous 1.50 of PVA&M.

UW held ND to .84 PPP. PVA&M and Minnesota State each has .83 PPP. So, the defense has been consistent and very good.

Shooting: UW had our best day so far this year outside the arc, inside the arc, and at the line.

eFG%: For those unaware, eFG% is like your regular FG% but it gives a 3Pt basket a weight of 1.5 since it is worth more than a two point shot.

ND shot an eFG% of 43%. That is good defense by UW, or poor marksmanship by ND. UW shot 67% for our best performance of the year.

3 pt shooting: ND took two extra shots from deep, 13 to UW’s 11, but made one fewer, 4 to UW’s 5. ND hit a pedestrian 31% while UW was a robust 41%. UW picked up 3 points outside the arc.

2pt shooting: ND hit only 14 of 34 shots inside the arc for 41%. UW, meanwhile, sizzled at 67% having made 26 of 39, including the aforementioned Evans dunk. This allowed UW to pick up 24 points inside the arc.

Most of the inside the arc points were also inside the paint. UW outscored ND 40 to 22 in the paint and 12 to 6 on midrange shots.

1pt shooting: ND got to the line 19 times and made 13 for 69%. Not very good shooting, but not the worst either. UW smoked them at the line making 18 of 21 for 86%. This gave UW an extra 5 points from the line.

Rebounding: When ND shot and missed, which they did often, the results were a draw. When UW shot and missed, UW cleaned up their own misses effectively.

UW Defensive end: ND provided 32 rebounding opportunities on their misses and picked up 10, for 31%. Regular readers will note that 33% is the national average, but UW typically holds their opponents to around 26%. So, this was more or less a draw, and not up to UW’s typical high standards for glass defense.

UW Offensive End: UW’s excellent marksmanship allowed for fewer rebounding chances. While ND gave themselves 32 chances, UW had only 19 chances to follow their misses. UW managed to get 10, or 53%. That is remarkable for a UW team, although less than the unobtainable standard of 65% against Prairie View.

Turnovers: ND had 16 TO’s, or 25% while UW had 13 for 21%. UW typically is near the top in the nation at avoiding TO’s. This will get Bo’s ire up at practices trying to cut down TO’s, I would think.

Opportunity Index: The OI was a modest +2 for the game. ND had 10 offensive rebounds to UW’s 9. But, UW had three extra chances via turnovers.

This game points out a flaw in OI. It rewards teams that miss shots. In this game, ND missed an extra 13 reboundable shots. They did an inferior job of offensive rebounding (31% to 53%) but scored well in the index through quantity (10 to UW’s 9).

Fouls: Both teams fouled 18 times. Last year, UW average 16 and our opponents 17.

Playing time: Bo went 8 deep (10 or more minutes) with Valentyn almost getting there with 9 minutes. Bruesewitz and Gasser started. Evans (21) and Jarmusz (23) played starter’s minutes.

Notable Performances: UW had 5 players in double figures:

* Leuer – 22 on 10 FGA’s, 8-8 from the line, but 3 unfortunate turnovers
* Keaton – 17 on 7-8 shooting, 2-2 from the line
* Taylor – 10 on 7 FGA, 2-2 from the line
* Evans – 11 on 6 FGA’s, 5-7 from the line
* Jarmusz – 10 on 4-4 field goals, 2-2 from deep

Leuer has been a machine so far, a finely tuned machine that is dominating opponents. Nankivil reminded everyone that he is a threat on offense. Jarmusz was rock solid and highly efficient. Tim, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people. Keep that efficiency high.

Evans took the fouling bug and handed it to Valentyn. Brett picked up 4 fouls in 9 minutes. That is reminiscent of my high school career. If I got in a game and the only thing I could reliably do was foul, I wanted to get my money’s worth.

No individual had a particularly good day on the boards, but the team did very well. Leuer, Gasser, and Evans all had 6 boards.

For ND, Troy Huff scored 21 points, which is impressive until you see how he got there. He need to take 15 FGA’s and 13 FTA ( 6-15, 9-13 from the line).

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. The Badgers shoot more than 25 three-pointers. The Sioux are use a terrible zone defense that leaves shooters wide open for easy 3s, much like PVAMU did on Sunday, which resulted in 31 attempts. Miss. UW only took 11, but made 5. But then, why bother when you are hitting 67% of your shots inside the arc?

2. Leuer nets more than 25. He was unstoppable against Prairie View and North Dakota is an even smaller team. Miss. He got 22. But his efficiency was excellent. Maybe Keaton could have loaned him a few shots so he could have met your prediction.

3. Ryan Evans limits his fouls to three or less. He’s been really foul-happy the last two games and I expect him to settle down in this one. Hit. He had one. But, he passed the cursed evil fouling talisman (I think a talisman is supposed to ward off evil, so does anyone know what you call a thing that brings evil upon you?) to Valentyn.

4. The Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. The Badgers destroyed PVAMU on the offensive glass with grabbing a nation-leading 67.5% of the rebounding opportunities. Shirley, it will regress to the norm over the course of the season, but Ginger ‘Fro, Will Smith, and Gasser will assure the numbers stay inflated for at least another few days. Hit. They got a remarkable 53%. I thought this was an aggressive prediction, but they easily topped it. And, my names not Shirley.

The Badgers beat up the Bison-rejects by the score of 93-50 in 65 possessions. Hit, close enough. UW won 85-53 in 63 possessions. And I think they are the Sioux.

Closing Thoughts: UW pounded another low level opponent with ease.

I thought I would try a new feature.

Unwarranted Conclusions Based Upon Playing Inferior Competition Early In the Year:

1. Bo will shuffle his starting lineup every game
2. Bo will go 8 to 10 deep (playing more than 10 minutes a game)
3. UW will routinely score 1.30 + PPP per game and hold opponents to under .90 PPP
4. UW will hit 61% of our shots inside the arc, and 40% from deep
5. Bo will have the team crash the offensive glass and be one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation

It is hard to know what to make of these games. The UNLV game may provide some insight.

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