Monday, November 15, 2010

North Dakota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: On to the next one… The Badgers just took down to the 12th worst team in the nation per Ken Pomeroy, and are now taking on the 6th worst team in the nation. The Fighting Sue of North Dakota are starting their 2nd season as a Division 1 team. Last season they played a Princeton-style offense but have apparently changed to a more up-tempo offense. Defensively, their Ken Pom stats point to them employing a very slow-rotating zone. Their opponents shot the third most treys per shot attempt last season, and only 7 teams gave up a higher assist-to-made shot ratio too.

Forum to Visit:
Sioux Sports

What the expert nerd says:

Ken Pomeroy predicts an 82-48 Badger victory in 60 possessions, with a 0.2% chance of an upset.

North Dakota Likely Rotation (Last Season’s Statistics or First Game Statistics)

*G – 6’1” FR Jamal Webb (2.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 100% FT, 40.0 OR, 20% TO, 10.0 FTR, 66% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’2” FR Josh Schuler (7.0 PPG, 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 50% 2PT, 77.8 OR, 11% TO, 0.0 FTR, 50% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’8” JR Patrick Mitchell (9.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 38% 3PT, 97.8 OR, 21% Poss, 26% Shot, 16% TO, 5% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 2.9 FTR, 65% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G/F – 6’6” SR Chris Clausen (6.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 38% 3PT, 50% 2PT, 94.8 OR, 18% Poss, 20% Shot, 23% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.1 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’5” SO Spencer Goodman (5.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 82.8 OR, 19% Poss, 17% Shot, 29% TO, 6% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 6.0 FTR, 33% of FGAs are 3PT)

G/F – 6’4” FR Troy Huff (18.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 50% 2PT, 33% 3PT, 83% FT, 138.5 OR, 8% TO, 4.6 FTR, 23% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 5’10” FR Aaron Anderson (10.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 100% 2PT, 100% FT, 125.0 OR, 38% TO, 10.0 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)

G - 6’2” SO Nick Haugen (5.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 51% 2PT, 93.2 OR, 16% Poss, 16% Shot, 28% TO, 3% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.0 FTR, 45% of FGAs are 3PT)

F - 6’7” SR Derek Benter (6.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 46% 3PT, 77% FT, 95.1 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 23% TO, 4% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 3.9 FTR, 30% of FGAs are 3PT)


OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession (100.8 is average)

Poss = possession usage when on the court

Shot = share of shots taken when on the court

TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (20.4% is average)

OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)

DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)

FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.77 is average)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%

What North Dakota is really good at:

1. Getting to the free throw line. Last season, they averaged 9 free throw attempts per 20 field goal attempts, good for 28th in the country. Indiana was at 8 and Purdue was about 7.5.

2. Defensive Rebounding. They grabbed a hair less than 70% of all the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, good for 69th in the nation. Wisconsin was a hair below 74%, or 2nd in the nation.

What North Dakota is really bad at:

1. Taking care of the ball. They coughed it up on offense a bit more than once every four possessions, making them 6th worst in the country. Even Tom Crean’s Cream team couldn’t match that, as they were only at 23%.

2. Offensive Rebounding. They only grab 27.4% of all rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 322nd. Wisconsin was 249th.

3. Defense. Pick a defensive tempo-free stat, and they were bad at it last season. They were 254th in forcing turnovers, 335th in keeping opponents off the free throw line, 285th in defending 3s, 242nd in defending 2s, and 322nd in defending free throws. All of this culminated to create the second worst defense in the nation… defense ain’t easy for a team named Sue.

Relative efficiency:

When North Dakota has the ball: They scored an awful 0.89 PPP last season, while UW gave up the same last season.

When UW has the ball: They gave up a disgusting 1.20 last season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 last season.

Pace: North Dakota played at 66 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. The Badgers shoot more than 25 three-pointers. The Sioux are use a terrible zone defense that leaves shooters wide open for easy 3s, much like PVAMU did on Sunday, which resulted in 31 attempts.

2. Leuer nets more than 25. He was unstoppable against Prairie View and North Dakota is an even smaller team.

3. Ryan Evans limits his fouls to three or less. He’s been really foul-happy the last two games and I expect him to settle down in this one.

4. The Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. The Badgers destroyed PVAMU on the offensive glass with grabbing a nation-leading 67.5% of the rebounding opportunities. Shirley, it will regress to the norm over the course of the season, but Ginger ‘Fro, Will Smith, and Gasser will assure the numbers stay inflated for at least another few days.

The Badgers beat up the Bison-rejects by the score of 93-50 in 65 possessions.

No comments:

Post a Comment