Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Arizona Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: What an ugly game. 55 fouls, 66 free throws and absolutely no flow to the game at all for either team. I generally don't like to make complaints about refs, but it was bad... for both teams.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW’s offense wasn't flowing after the first 9 minutes, but the defense did just enough for the win.

Pace: The game was a zippy 68 possessions.

Efficiency: Arizona scored at a bad 0.90 PPP. UW scored at a below average (for D1) 0.96 PPP.

Shooting: Neither team shot well. Arizona shot a bad 39.8% eFG and Wisconsin barely surpassed them with a 40.7%.

3 pt shooting: The Badgers chose to launch 7 extra three’s and made 1 of them. Arizona made 3 of 11 for 27% and UW 4-18 for 22%. Quantity trumped quality. Edge = UW +3.

2pt shooting: The Wildcats were also bad inside. They hit only 13/33 for 39% to UW’s 18/41, or 44%. UW made 5 on their 8 extra shots. Edge = UW +10.

1pt shooting: Both teams were getting to the line due to the fouls, but UW wasn't hitting. Arizona was 26/37 for 70%, while UW was 17/29 for 59%. Edge = Arizona +9.

Rebounding: UW rebounded about as normal as they usually do.

UW Defensive End: There were 33 rebounding opportunities on UW’s defensive end and UW grabbed 26 to Arizona’s 7, or UW got 79% to Arizona’s 21%. This is about normal for UW and near the top in the nation. As mentioned many times, UW was one of the best defensive rebounding team in the nation last year (thanks Joe and Marcus).

UW Offensive End: There were more rebounding opportunities on the other end, 40, and UW snarfed up 11 or 28%. That is slightly below normal for UW. Last year we were slightly below the national average of 33% (31%).

Turnovers: UW forced Arizona into a 18% turnover rate, which is normal by UW’s standards. The Wildcats puked it up 12 times. UW threw away the ball a mere 8 times, or 12% (last year we averaged 16%). So, we did well.

Fouls: Both teams fouled greatly. Arizona had 30 and UW 25. These converted into 37 attempts by Arizona and 29 by UW. Since Arizona made 26, we can't say with great pride that we made more FT’s than Arizona attempted. Arizona's Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill, and Lamont "MoMo" Jones fouled out, as did UW's Jon Leuer.

Playing time: Bo went 10 deep with Breusewitz getting 22 minutes, Taylor 21, Evans 13, Wilson 10, and Berggren 9. The foul trouble for Leuer and Nankivil held them to 10 and 17 minutes respectively, opening up all those minutes for the bench.

Notable Performances: Trevon Hughes led the Badgers with 24 points on 7-19 shooting, 8-14 from the line, and 2-6 from 3, along with 7 rebounds, 4 steals, 3 assists, and 2 blocks and a smart, timely steal on off of Nankivil's missed free throw with 5 seconds left. Trevon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of turomon's people.

Keaton Nankivil scored 12 points on 5-9 shooting, with 8 rebounds, 5 of the offensive variety, and an assist and a block... in a mere 17 minutes. None of the 5 offensive boards was more timely than his dunk with authority off of a Hughes miss late, giving Wisconsin a 61-58 lead. Keaton... tales... exploits... turomon's people...

My Predictions:

1. Both teams protect their defensive glass. Arizona and UW will not allow more than 33% of the misses on defense to be grabbed by the offensive team. Hit. UW gave up 21% offensive rebounds to Arizona and Arizona gave up 28% to UW.

2. Leuer and Nankivil combine for more than 22 points. I’m still liking this Badger duo to continue their dominance in the paint against this undersized Arizona team. Miss. Keaton lived up to his half of the bargain, but the foul trouble that plagued both of them took it's toll on Jon, as he had only 4 points in 10 foul-ridden minutes.

3. Badgers fluster the Wildcats into more than a 20% turnover rate. They averaged 20.1% in the first 2 games, and I think the much better Badger defense (compared to Northern Arizona and Rice) frustrates the young Wildcats into mental errors. Miss. UW came up just short, at 18%.

4. Badgers in a tight one, 65-58 in a 64-possession game. Hit! UW wins 65-61 in a 68 possession game. If it wasn't for a 25 footer from Jamelle Horne, I would've nailed the score perfectly. Go figure the game I decide to lowball the possessions they play the pace I expect them to.

Closing Thoughts: This was a relatively ugly game with all the fouls and really hurt our frontcourt. But the good thing about it was, the freshman received a baptism by fire, playing BIG minutes in a tight game with a great opponent. I'm just happy they survived and advanced so to speak. On to Gonzaga... hopefully the refs are better because Gonzaga will absolutely destroy us inside if Jon and Keaton get in trouble again.

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