Thursday, November 19, 2009

Oakland Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: Well I've got nothing going on right now and turomon hasn't posted the box score observations on BM's board yet, so I'll fill in to get it to my blog and this board quicker.

UW had some really ugly moments offensively this game, but the defense was beautiful. Hughes, Leuer, and Nankivil did well offensively, with Nankivil continuing his one-upping of Will Hudson in this game just like in high school, but the rest of the team had a pretty forgettable game on offense. J-Bo was an icy 3-10 and Evans did a reverse of how he usually scores... he was 2-6, missing his short range scoops and lay-ups and making his 2 15-18 foot jumpers.

Summarizing the game in a few words:
UW played suffocating defense and sub-par offensively leading to an easy 58-42 win.

The game was a normal, for UW, 62 possessions.

UW put up a bad 0.94 PPP but held Oakland to an embarrassing 0.68 PPP.

UW achieved a below average 44.3 eFG% and held Oakland to a lowly 30.0%. We outscored IPFW inside and at the line and tied around the arc.

3 pt shooting: UW hoisted 5 less threes than Oakland but made the same amount. UW was a poor 3-14 for 21% while Oakland hit only 3-19 for 16%. Edge - Even.

2pt shooting: UW took a few more shots inside than Oakland - 39 to 36. But, they made 7 more. UW hit an okay 49% inside going 19-39. Oakland was 12-36 for 33%. UW picked up an additional 14 points inside.

1pt shooting: Both teams were comparably efficient at the line. Oakland hit 90% (9 of 10) while UW was 85% (11/13). UW got an extra 2 points on the line and my favorite stat has returned, they made more free throws than their opponent attempted.

: Protecting the glass will be something I plan on watching a lot this year. Can Leuer, Nankivil, Berggren, Jarmusz and company approach the effectiveness of Landry and Krabbenhoft?

UW Defensive end: There were 39 rebounding opportunities on UW's defensive side and UW grabbed 26 for 66%. Exactly average. Or, Oakland grabbed 33% of their misses. Last year we allowed the opposition 26.4% of the misses, which was #4 nationally… Hence, the concern about losing Landry and Krabbenhoft.

UW Offensive End: There were only 32 rebounding opportunities (see UW's better shooting percentages for an insight) and UW plucked 13 for 41%. Normally, UW would concede the offensive glass to play defense. Last year we gathered 32%, which was below average for D1 teams. Offensive rebounding, to some degree, is a strategy decision.

: Oakland had 16 TO's for 26% while UW had 15 TO's for 24%. Last year we averaged 16%, which was #5 nationally. There was that forgettable stretch where we lost it about 6 times in a row in the second half. Ugh. As they say, Bo has some "teaching moments." We will watch this all year.

Oakland had 14 to UW's 12. UW ended up with 3 extra free throws.

Playing time:
Bo played 7 players 10 or minutes with Berggren and Wilson getting 6 and Bruesewitz getting 2. No redshirt for Bruiser.

Notable Performances:

Nankivil was on fire today. He was 5-8 from the floor with 2 dunks and a triple, 2-2 from the line, grabbed 9 boards (3 offensive), blocked 4 shots, and stole 2 balls. Keaton, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of turomon's people.

Hughes had a decent 15 points on 4-9 shots, 6-6 from the line, grabbed 7 boards, dished 4 assists, and had a block and a steal. Leuer knocked down 12 on 11 shots and had 3 steals and 2 blocks. Hughes and Leuer, people, campfires …

My Predictions:
I had 2 hits, 1 miss, and fouled off 1.

1. Badgers shut down their offensive rebounding. Wisconsin is too tall, athletic, and fundamentally sound compared to Oakland to give up more than 28% of the rebounding opportunities on that end of the floor. Miss. Oakland got 33%.

2. Badgers smother the Grizzlies in the paint defensively. Jones, Wright, and Cushingberry will knock down some triples, but Benson, Hudson, and Nelson are held in check, scoring less than 30 points combined. Hit! Benson, Hudson, and Nelson were held to 20 points on 8-24 shooting.

3. They continue to pound the ball inside to Leuer, Nankivil, Evans, Jarmusz, and Berggren. Oakland's interior defense can block a lot of shots against smaller teams but gets pushed around easily…Wisconsin is bigger in height and strength. I figure Oakland will desperately switch to a 1-3-1 if this happens. Hit! Leuer and Nankivil were UW's 2nd and 3rd leading scorers and Oakland did desperately switch to a zone in the second half, and J-Bo promptly hit a 3 on the first possession they faced said zone.

4. Badgers roll, 77-58 in a 68-possession game. Foul tip. My margin of victory was very close, but I was way off in points and a bit off on possessions. I gave the offenses too much credit.

Closing Thoughts:
I realize it's a very small sample size, but this could be Bo Ryan's best defensive team. They have enough athleticism on the perimeter to stick with teams they previously probably couldn't due to J-Bo's increased quickness, Taylor's improvement in not fouling, Jarmusz's improved lateral quickness, and the emergence of Evans as the 6th man. Inside, Leuer, Nankivil, and Evans are very talented on-ball and off, and have had a knack for blocking or altering shots quite a bit. Through these 2 games, the team has blocked 18 shots, or 27.1% of opponent's possessions. They've also held their opponents to a lowly 19% from 3 and 36% from 2. And unlike last season, this game was a relative blowout, despite a poor offensive night for the team.

With that said, bring on Sean Miller's Arizona Wildcats.

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