Comparing This Season's Offense in the First 5 Games with Last Season's First 5 Games

Points Per Game
2009 = 67.4
2008 = 65.8

Raw Offensive PPP
2009 = 1.04
2008 = 1.04

Raw Tempo
2009 = 64.6
2008 = 61.6

2FG%
2009 = 52.0%
2008 = 46.9%

3FG%
2009 = 29.2%
2008 = 39.5%

FT%
2009 = 72.0%
2008 = 71.2%

Free Throw Rate
2009 = 33.8%
2008 = 44.0% (37.7 if outlier Iona is removed, 34 FTAs to 48 FGAs in a foul-happy game)

% of Points in the Paint
2009 = 37.9%
2008 = 37.3%

Scoring Distribution (1PT - 2PT - 3PT)
2009 = 19.9 - 55.2 - 24.9
2008 = 23.4 - 46.3 - 30.3

Offensive Rebounding
2009 = 32.2%
2008 = 32.9%

Turnover Rate
2009 = 18.3%
2008 = 22.5%

3-Point Field Goals Attempts Rate
2009 = 34.9%
2008 = 34.1%

Second Chance Points %
2009 = 16%
2008 = 12.8%

Fast Break Points %
2009 = 5.9%
2008 = 3.6%

Bench Scoring
2009 - 23.4%
2008 - 27.9% (21.6% if extreme outlier SIU-E, 40 of 88 points, is removed)



So what does all this mean?

The points per possession is exactly the same.

It seems like Keaton Nankivil has single-handedly increased second chance scoring a bit with his offensive rebounding prowess.

People's eyes aren't fooling them, they are playing at a faster pace and scoring more on fast breaks.

Bench scoring is down, but I think that's attributed to 4 starters scoring over 8 points a game this season so far, and the fact that Jon Leuer was still coming off the bench at that time last season.

Despite not much of a change in 3-point field goal attempts, how often they go to the free throw line is down. This suggests a multitude of things, but I'm guessing that it's because they haven't had as many foul situations at the end of the game (Only Arizona in 2009, and Iona, Long Beach State, and San Diego in 2008).

Oddly enough, one concern voiced by many this season has been turnovers. Last season's team coughed it up more at this point in the season, and finished with a rate of 16%, good for a measly 5th in the nation. Needless to say, I'm not too concerned about this.

One nice development is the improved 2-point shooting. This was a relative weakpoint for the team last season and it's good to see Keaton and Jon's work in the off-season has paid off.


Overall, I like what I'm seeing. I would argue that this season's team has faced much tougher defense in their first 5 games, and has fared just as well as last season's, despite some icy 3-point shooting that should come around given our shooters' histories. I wish the box scores this season allowed me to do plus/minus on the individual players, but alas, that isn't possible. Here are their raw offensive ratings though...

Trevon Hughes = 91.0 in 78 possessions, 16.7% turnover rate
Jon Leuer = 116.9 in 69 possessions, 10.1% turnover rate
Jason Bohannon = 109.8 in 51 possessions, 15.7% turnover rate
Keaton Nankivil = 110.5 in 38 possessions, 18.4% turnover rate
Jordan Taylor = 86.8 in 38 possessions, 10.5% turnover rate
Ryan Evans = 82.6 in 23 possessions, 21.7% turnover rate
Tim Jarmusz = 111.1 in 18 possessions, 38.9% turnover rate
Rob Wilson = 140.0 in 10 possessions, 30.0% turnover rate
Jared Berggren = 71.4 in 7 possessions, 28.6% turnover rate
Mike Bruesewitz = 133.3 in 6 possessions, 50.0% turnover rate

Jon and Keaton are cleaning up, even with their combined 2 of 21 from 3... just think of when those 3s start falling a bit more. For being a starter and known for his heady play, Timmy J has been turning it over quite a bit and still doesn't really assert himself on the offensive end, as two of our bench players have more possessions than him (with a lower rate of turnovers). Taylor's number isn't very pretty, but if he made a few more freebies (only 6/13), he'd be right up there with J-Bo. The one surprise to me is Trevon's sub-100 rating. I guess a few of those ill-advised 3s and drives to the hoop did it.