Opening Thoughts: Another game, another 18 point win. Something tells me Illinois won’t be as easy as the brothers Michigan. The Illini are coming into the game at 16-8 and riding a 4-game winning streak, including a 5 point win over the Lucas-less Spartans with College Gameday on campus.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #9 and Illinois #62. He makes Wisconsin a 12-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and Illinois #54. He predicts a 68-56 Badger victory in 61 possessions and gives the Badgers a 90% chance of winning.
Note: Sagarin and Pomeroy are unable to objectively calculate UW’s abilities with Jon Leuer out, so they don’t. However Pomeroy weighs his numbers towards more recent games so he is a bit more accurate in that regard.
Illinois Rotation:
*G – 6’3” JR Demetri McCamey (15.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 55% 2PT, 108.6 OR, 26% Poss, 22% Shot, 22% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 4.5 FTR, 36% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’3” FR D.J. Richardson (11.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 44% 3PT, 78% FT, 109.6 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 19% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 3.4 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’4” FR Brandon Paul (8.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 96.6 OR, 26% Poss, 29% Shot, 15% TO, 7% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 3.0 FTR, 45% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’9” JR Mike Davis (10.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 102.3 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 12% TO, 9% OffReb, 24% DefReb, 2.2 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
*C – 7’1” JR Mike Tisdale (11.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 58% 2PT, 83% FT, 117.7 OR, 20% Poss, 20% Shot, 16% TO, 9% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 4.6 FTR, 0.6% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” JR Bill Cole (4.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 63% 2PT, 119.5 OR, 11% Poss, 12% Shot, 14% TO, 7% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 2.1 FTR, 56% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’1” JR Jeff Jordan (1.8 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 93.2 OR, 11% Poss, 7% Shot, 33% TO, 3% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 1.6 FTR, 16% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’7” SR Dominique Keller (6.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 53% 2PT, 101.0 OR, 23% Poss, 26% Shot, 17% TO, 7% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 2.1 FTR, 22% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
What Illinois is really good at:
1. Pump faking. They get slightly less than 1 in 20 two-point attempts. This ranks 1st in the Big Ten and 1st in the nation.
2. Defending beyond the arc. Their opponents are the 18th worst in the nation in 3-point percentage at 29.5%. This is 1st in the Big Ten.
3. Blocking shots. The Illini are 58th in the nation, blocking two out of every 17 of their opponents’ two-point attempts. They are 3rd in the Big Ten.
What Illinois is really bad at:
1. Getting to the line. They attempt only 4 free throws to every 13 shot attempts. This is 9th in the Big Ten and 313rd in the nation.
2. Forcing turnovers. They only force 5 turnovers every 26 possessions, good for 240th in the nation and 9th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Illinois has the ball: Illinois has scored the league median 1.04 PPP in their first 11 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.93 in their first 11.
When UW has the ball: Illinois has the fourth best defensive PPP at 0.99 in their 11 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the third best 1.06 in their 11 Big Ten games.
Pace: Illinois has played at 67 possessions per game so far in their 11 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 11 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Illinois Good Wins = @Clemson, Vanderbilt, MSU
Illinois Bad Losses = (N) Utah, (N) Bradley
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Illinois takes 9 or less free throws. As a primarily jump shooting team and the Badgers not fouling ways, Illinois shouldn’t get to the line much.
2. Trevon Hughes and Jordan Taylor combine for 26 points or more. McCamey and Richardson are great offensive players, but are suspect on defense against dribble penetration.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately, and I think it continues despite Illinois’ great defense.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 68-58 in 61 possessions.
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