Saturday, February 20, 2010

Northwestern 2.0 Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: How appropriate it would be that the next team on the schedule are the Wildcats of Nerdwestern. I was just thinking that Minnesota is becoming what Northwestern used to be in the not-so-distant past… that thorn in Wisconsin’s side. A team that Wisconsin is more skilled and arguably talented than that they just can’t seem to figure out how to beat on the road. Northwestern comes into the game game at 17-9, 6-8 in the Big Ten, and losers of 2 of their last 3 games, including a home loss to previously winless (in the Big Ten) Penn State on Wednesday.


What the Expert Wildcats Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #13 and Northwestern #75. He makes Wisconsin a 13-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #7 and Northwestern #76. He predicts a 67-54 Badger victory in 57 possessions and gives the Badgers a 91% chance of winning.


Nerdwestern Rotation:
*G – 5’10” JR Juice Thompson (13.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 82% FT, 40% 3PT, 55% 2PT, 114.2 OR, 19% Poss, 20% Shot, 15% TO, 1% OffReb, 4% DefReb, 3.4 FTR, 58% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’4” SR Jeremy Nash (9.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 81% FT, 107.0 OR, 16% Poss, 16% Shot, 15% TO, 3% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 3.9 FTR, 54% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’5” FR Drew Crawford (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 38% 3PT, 58% 2PT, 111.0 OR, 21% Poss, 22% Shot, 16% TO, 7% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 54% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” SO John Shurna (17.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, 78% FT, 35% 3PT, 54% 2PT, 111.9 OR, 25% Poss, 29% Shot, 13% TO, 6% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 2.7 FTR, 47% of FGAs are 3PT)

*C – 6’11” SO Luka Mirkovic (7.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 36% 3PT, 105.1 OR, 20% Poss, 18% Shot, 17% TO, 9% OffReb, 20% DefReb, 4.9 FTR, 14% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’3” FR Alex Marcotullio (4.8 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 36% 3PT, 50% 2PT, 104.3 OR, 23% Poss, 18% Shot, 15% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 1.8 FTR, 85% of FGAs are 3PT)

C – 7’0” SO Kyle Rowley (2.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 75.9 OR, 20% Poss, 12% Shot, 33% TO, 10% OffReb, 20% DefReb, 9.2 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)


Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%


What Northwestern is really good at:

1. Shooting 3s. Northwestern is second in 3-point percentage in conference games, at 37.3%.

2. Taking care of the ball. They are 2nd in the conference at it (we’re first), only once in every 6 possessions (15.7 %).

3. Pump faking. They are third best in the conference at avoiding blocked shots with 1 every 20 two-point attempts.


What Northwestern is really bad at:

1. Rebounding. They grab only 27.7% of the rebounding opportunities on offense and only 67.1% of them on the defensive side in conference games, which are second and third worst respectively.

2. Keeping opponents off the free throw line and defending those freebies. They are second worst in the conference at sending opponents to the line, giving up about 2 FTAs per 5 FGAs. They also are the worst free throw defenders in the conference at 78%.

Relative efficiency:

When Northwestern has the ball: Northwestern has scored a league leading 1.08 PPP in their 14 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a second best 0.96 in their 14.

When UW has the ball: Northwestern has given up a league worst 1.12 PPP in their 14 games, while UW has scored a league-runner up 1.07 in their 14.


Pace: Northwestern has played at 64 possessions per game so far in their Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in theirs.


My expectations:

1. Shurna scores less than 15. We’ve got the defenders to disrupt his flow.

2. Wisconsin attempts 59% or more of their shots inside the arc. Bo and the players will make an intense effort to get in the paint and re-integrate Leuer.

3. To go with #2, Wisconsin attempts more than 14 free throws. The last time they did was January 24th, with the assistance of overtime.

My Prediction: The Badgers take out their frustration on the Nerds, winning 68-50 in 56 possessions.

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