MSU 2.0 Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts:
- Okay campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties ‘cause it’s cooold out there today!
- It’s cooold out there every day. What is this, Miami Beach?
- Not hardly. And you know, you can expect hazardous travel later today with that, you know, that, uh, that MSU thing.
- That MSU, thing. That MSU thing. Oh, well, here’s the report. The National Weather Service is calling for some “salty showers, hot air about charge taking, moving screens, and accusations of dirty play”.
- Yessss, they are. But you know, there’s another reason why today is especially exciting.
- Especially cold!
- Especially cold, okay, but the big question on everybody’s lips…
- On their chapped lips…
- On their chapped lips, right: Do ya think Tom is gonna come out and see his shadow?
- Tom Izzo!
- That’s right, Badger fans – it’s MSU GAME DAY!!!!!!


What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #12 and MSU #13. He makes Wisconsin a 6-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #5 and MSU #19. He predicts a 65-59 Badger victory in 62 possessions and gives the Badgers a 75% chance of winning.


Moving Screen Probable Rotation:
*G – 6’1” JR Kalin Lucas (16.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 50% 2PT, 80.6% FT, 113.1 OR, 25% Poss, 25% Shot, 18% TO, 3% OffReb, 5% DefReb, 29% 3FGA/FGA)
*G – 6’3” JR Chris Allen (9.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 51% 2PT, 82.1% FT, 112.3 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 18% TO, 5% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 52% 3FGA/FGA)
*F – 6’8” SR Raymar Morgan (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 58% 2PT, 112.3 OR, 21% Poss, 21% Shot, 18% TO, 8% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 7% 3FGA/FGA)
*F – 6’6” SO Draymond Green (10.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 62% 2PT, 122.1 OR, 20% Poss, 19% Shot, 18% TO, 10% OffReb, 24% DefReb, 7% 3FGA/FGA)
*F – 6’8” SO Delvon Roe (7.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, 57% 2PT, 107.9 OR, 19% Poss, 14% Shot, 18% TO, 13% OffReb, 19% DefReb, 0% 3FGA/FGA)
G – 6’4” JR Durrell Summers (10.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, 53% 2PT, 81.5% FT, 97.0 OR, 22% Poss, 25% Shot, 18% TO, 6% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 30% 3FGA/FGA)
G – 5’11” SO Korie Lucious (5.0 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 3.7 APG, 50% 2PT, 88.9% FT, 105.6 OR, 17% Poss, 18% Shot, 18% TO, 1% OffReb, 6% DefReb, 64% 3FGA/FGA)
F – 6’10” FR Garrick Sherman (2.1 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 57% 2PT, 101.3 OR, 13% Poss, 10% Shot, 18% TO, 9% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 0% 3FGA/FGA)
F – 6’8” FR Derrick Nix (2.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 18% FT, 85.3 OR, 20% Poss, 16% Shot, 18% TO, 16% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 10% 3FGA/FGA)


What Moving Screen is really good at:

1. Shooting 2s. MSU is 13th in 2-point shooting percentage (53.9%). This is second in the Big Ten.

2. Rebounding. Per usual, they are 8th in the nation at offensive rebounding, grabbing 40.7% of the opportunities, and 27th on defense, grabbing 71.6%. These are first and third in the Big Ten respectively.

3. Not sending opponents to the line. They are 18th in the nation, sending an opponent to the line only 5 times for every 18 shot attempts. This is third in the Big Ten.


What Moving Screen is really bad at:

1. Forcing turnovers. They force a turnover just a hair less often than one in five possessions. That puts them at 234th in the nation and 7th in the Big Ten.


Relative efficiency:

When MSU has the ball: MSU has scored a great 1.14 PPP in their first 22 games, while UW has given up a great 0.86 in their first 21.

When UW has the ball: MSU gave up a great 0.90 in their first 22 games, while UW has scored a great 1.14 in their first 21.


Pace: MSU has played at 69 possessions per game so far in their first 22 games compared to UW’s 61 in their first 21 games.


My expectations:

1. Lucas doesn’t reach 13 points. I like Hughes and Taylor to rattle him into a sub-par game.

2. Nankivil scores more than 15. He’s been in on a roll lately and like him sneaking around the perimeter against Moving Screen like the Purdue game.

3. Badgers shoot better than 35% from behind the arc again. This time around the guards get in the act too.

4. Badgers grab 70% or more of all defensive rebounding opportunities. The Crying Izzos are great offensive rebounders, but the Badgers box them out.


My Prediction: The Badgers make Izzo weep about unfairness and flopping, squeaking out a 61-60 victory in 59 possessions.