Opening Thoughts: Tomorrow night, the Badgers take on the Hoosiers of Indiana and head coach Tannin’ Cream. Indiana comes into the game with a record of 9-17 and 3-11 in the Big Ten. They are riding an 8-game losing streak and coming off an 81-58 drubbing at the hands of Minnesota.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #12 and Indiana #163. He makes Wisconsin a 20-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #11 and Indiana #151. He predicts a 68-56 Badger victory in 60 possessions and gives the Badgers a 90% chance of winning.
Indiana Rotation:
*G – 6’0” FR Jordan Hulls (6.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 79% FT, 39% 3PT, 112.0 OR, 13% Poss, 15% Shot, 18% TO, 3% OffReb, 7% DefReb, 2.7 FTR, 75% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” JR Jeremiah Rivers (6.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 81.3 OR, 18% Poss, 14% Shot, 31% TO, 3% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 5.9 FTR, 4% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Verdell Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 75% FT, 97.6 OR, 28% Poss, 28% Shot, 18% TO, 3% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 4.8 FTR, 21% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’9” FR Christian Watford (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 80% FT, 92.9 OR, 26% Poss, 28% Shot, 19% TO, 8% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 4.3 FTR, 14% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’9” SO Tom Pritchard (4.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 60% 2PT, 97.6 OR, 13% Poss, 11% Shot, 23% TO, 9% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 5.5 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’2” SR Devan Dumes (7.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 89.9 OR, 24% Poss, 27% Shot, 22% TO, 3% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 60% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” FR Derek Elston (4.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 39% 3PT, 93.9 OR, 21% Poss, 23% Shot, 21% TO, 12% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 3.0 FTR, 17% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” FR Bobby Capobianco (2.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 36% 3PT, 92.4 OR, 14% Poss, 13% Shot, 21% TO, 12% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 3.4 FTR, 16% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
Where Are They Now? (Transfers Since Tom Crean Came To Indiana)
Nick Williams = Ole Miss
Malik Story = Nevada
Armon Bassett = Ohio
DeAndre Thomas = Robert Morris
Jamarcus Ellis = Oklahoma City University
Eli Holman = Detroit
Jordan Crawford = Xavier
Brandon McGee = Auburn
What Indiana is really good at:
1. Getting to the FT line. They get 4 FTAs per 10 FGAs in conference games. This ranks 1st in the Big Ten.
2. Tanning. With making reservations at hotels with spas during away games and having a tanning bed for his home or office included in his contract, Tannin’ Tom can stay his favorite shade of orange throughout the season.
What Indiana is really bad at:
1. Protecting the ball. They turn the ball over on 22.1% of their possessions, which is 10th in the Big Ten.
2. Pump faking. They get 13% of their two-pointers blocked, which is worst in the Big Ten.
4. Shooting. They shoot 39% from the field, which is worst in the conference.
5. Keeping opponents off the charity stripe. Their Big Ten opponents attempt more than 4 free throws per 9 FGAs, which is 10th in the Big Ten.
6. Defensive Rebounding. They grab 64% of the rebounding opportunities on defense, which is good for last in the conference.
Relative efficiency:
When Indiana has the ball: Indiana has scored the league worst 0.94 PPP in their first 14 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league second-best 0.97 in their first 15.
When UW has the ball: Indiana has the second worst defensive PPP at 1.11 in their 14 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the league best 1.08 in their 15 Big Ten games.
Pace: Indiana has played at 65 possessions per game so far in their 14 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 15 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Indiana Good Wins = (N) Pitt, Minnesota
Indiana Bad Losses = (N) Boston University, (N) George Mason, Loyola MD, Iowa
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Jason Bohannon knocks down more than 3 treys. He has been on fire for the last few weeks and Indiana will let it continue.
2. Jon Leuer scores 19 points or more. He refinds his stride from pre-injury against a terrible defense.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately and I think it continues.
4. The Badgers grab more than 34% of the rebounding opportunities on offense and more than 75% on defense. Indiana is a terrible rebounding team.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 70-56 in 64 possessions, making Tom think that he should have stayed at the office and tanned instead of coming to the game.
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