Friday, February 12, 2010

Indiana Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Tomorrow afternoon, the Badgers take on the Hoosiers of Indiana and head coach Tannin’ Cream. Indiana comes into the game with a record of 9-14 and 3-8 in the Big Ten. They are riding a 5-game losing streak and coming off a 69-52 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State.

What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #12 and Indiana #163. He makes Wisconsin a 20-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #5 and Indiana #132. He predicts a 71-53 Badger victory in 62 possessions and gives the Badgers a 97% chance of winning.

Note: Sagarin and Pomeroy are unable to objectively calculate UW’s abilities with Jon Leuer out, so they don’t. However Pomeroy weighs his numbers towards more recent games so he is a bit more accurate in that regard, and Wisconsin has climbed in Pomeroy’s rankings since Jon has been out.

Indiana Rotation:
*G – 6’0” FR Jordan Hulls (6.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 79% FT, 112.9 OR, 13% Poss, 14% Shot, 18% TO, 4% OffReb, 6% DefReb, 2.7 FTR, 75% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’5” JR Jeremiah Rivers (6.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.5 SPG, 81.0 OR, 19% Poss, 14% Shot, 30% TO, 3% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 5.9 FTR, 4% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’5” SO Verdell Jones (14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 98.2 OR, 28% Poss, 29% Shot, 17% TO, 3% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 4.8 FTR, 21% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’9” FR Christian Watford (12.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 81% FT, 94.6 OR, 26% Poss, 27% Shot, 19% TO, 8% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 4.3 FTR, 14% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’9” SO Tom Pritchard (5.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 62% 2PT, 102.4 OR, 13% Poss, 11% Shot, 24% TO, 9% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 5.5 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’2” SR Devan Dumes (6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 88.7 OR, 23% Poss, 25% Shot, 24% TO, 3% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.3 FTR, 60% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’9” FR Derek Elston (5.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 95.5 OR, 22% Poss, 23% Shot, 20% TO, 12% OffReb, 18% DefReb, 3.0 FTR, 17% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’9” FR Bobby Capobianco (1.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 90.5 OR, 14% Poss, 14% Shot, 19% TO, 12% OffReb, 11% DefReb, 3.4 FTR, 16% of FGAs are 3PT)

OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%

Where Are They Now? (Transfers Since Tom Crean Came To Indiana)
Nick Williams = Ole Miss
Malik Story = Nevada
Armon Bassett = Ohio
DeAndre Thomas = Robert Morris
Jamarcus Ellis = Oklahoma City University
Eli Holman = Detroit
Jordan Crawford = Xavier
Brandon McGee = Auburn

What Indiana is really good at:

1. Getting to the FT line. They get slightly more than 5 FTAs per 12 FGAs. This ranks 1st in the Big Ten and 75th in the nation.

2. Tanning. With making reservations at hotels with spas during away games and having a tanning bed for his home or office included in his contract, Tannin’ Tom can stay his favorite shade of orange throughout the season.

What Indiana is really bad at:

1. Protecting the ball. They turn the ball over on 21.7% of their possessions, which is 10th in the Big Ten and 232nd overall.

2. Pump faking. They get 13% of their two-pointers blocked, which is worst in the Big Ten and 334th in the nation.

3. Free throwing shooting. The Hoosiers shoot 67.4% from the line, which is last in the Big Ten and 219th in the nation.

4. Two-point shooting. They shoot 45.2% from inside the arc, which is worst in the conference and 256th overall.

5. Keeping opponents off the charity stripe. Their opponents attempt more than 4 free throws per 9 FGAs, which is worst in the Big Ten and 282nd overall.

6. Defensive Rebounding. They grab 65.3% of the rebounding opportunities on defense, which is good for last in the conference and 248th overall.

Relative efficiency:

When Indiana has the ball: Indiana has scored the league worst 0.94 PPP in their first 11 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.94 in their first 12.

When UW has the ball: Indiana has the third worst defensive PPP at 1.07 in their 11 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the fourth best 1.06 in their 12 Big Ten games.

Pace: Indiana has played at 66 possessions per game so far in their 11 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 12 Big Ten games.

Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:

Indiana Good Wins = (N) Pitt, Minnesota
Indiana Bad Losses = (N) Boston University, (N) George Mason, Loyola MD, Iowa

UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB

My expectations:

1. Indiana takes 10 or less free throws. The money we stash in the third trash can left of the Nicholas-Johnson Pavilion rigs it for us again.

2. Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil combine for 30 points or more. They make up for their previous performances with great afternoons against the Hoosiers.

3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately with the exception of the desperation attempts at the end of the Illinois game, and I think it continues.

My Prediction: The Badgers win 72-51 in 61 possessions, making Tom think that he should have stayed at the hotel and tanned instead of coming to the game.

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