Opening Thoughts: Survive and advance. That’s all that matters and with the hot streak that Wofford started the second half with, I’m just glad we were able to advance. Next up is the #12 seed Cornell. The Big Red of Cornell are the Ivy League champions and come into the game with a record of 28-4. They are on an 8-game winning streak, including their 78-65 victory over #5 seed Temple on Friday.
Forums to Visit: Cornell
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and Cornell #39. He makes Wisconsin a 8-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #3 and Cornell #58. He predicts a 67-59 Badger victory in 56 possessions and gives the Badgers an 82% chance of winning.
Cornell Rotation (Key Players in Italics):
*G – 5’11” SR Louis Dale (12.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 51% 2PT, 40% 3PT, 85% FT, 115.2 OR, 25% Poss, 24% Shot, 19% TO, 3% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 2.2 FTR, 42% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’0” SO Chris Wroblewski (8.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 54% 2PT, 45% 3PT, 87% FT, 113.1 OR, 18% Poss, 24% Shot, 23% TO, 1% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 3.1 FTR, 56% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’7” SR Ryan Wittman (17.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 84% FT, 54% 2PT, 43% 3PT, 117.4 OR, 23% Poss, 28% Shot, 14% TO, 2% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 2.0 FTR, 59% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’7” SR Jon Jaques (6.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 58% 2PT, 47% 3PT, 79% FT, 123.7 OR, 18% Poss, 20% Shot, 18% TO, 7% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 1.8 FTR, 64% of FGAs are 3PT)
*C – 7’0” SR Jeff Foote (12.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.9 BPG, 63% 2PT, 111.8 OR, 25% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 11% OffReb, 26% DefReb, 5.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’4” SR Geoff Reeves (5.2 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, 59% 2PT, 45% 3PT, 87% FT, 128.7 OR, 13% Poss, 15% Shot, 15% TO, 4% OffReb, 4% DefReb, 1.3 FTR, 73% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’5” JR Adam Wire (1.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 55% 2PT, 118.6 OR, 12% Poss, 8% Shot, 20% TO, 11% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 7.5 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” SR Mark Coury (2.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 55% 2PT, 118.4 OR, 13% Poss, 13% Shot, 14% TO, 10% OffReb, 18% DefReb, 2.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession (100.8 is average)
Poss = possession usage when on the court
Shot = share of shots taken when on the court
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (20.4% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.77 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
Style Profile:
Offense – Offensively, they are heavily reliant on three-point shooting, with 39.1% of their scoring coming from beyond the arc. That is 5th in the nation (FYI, we are 28th at 34%). Their offense involves a lot of isolation, 2-man games, and drive and kicks. Their 3 primary shot takers are the point guard Dale, small forward Wittmann, and center Foote. All three are very efficient scorers, as is the rest of the team. How much their offensive success is due to the extremely weak schedule (Cornell’s opponent’s average Pomeroy rank is 203, whereas Wisconsin’s is 93), I don’t know.
Defense – Defensively, Cornell is mostly a man-to-man team, with a bit of 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone thrown in and occasionally a 2-1-2 token press. They give up about 35% from 3 and 45% from inside the arc. They also allow opponents to attempt almost 4 free throw attempts to every 10 field goal attempts. In terms of turnovers, they force about 3 in every 14 possessions, with a little more than half coming from steals. They don’t normally double the post and their center Foote is uncomfortable defensively around the perimeter, so I expect we may see a lot of zone to negate Leuer’s versatility and Hughes’ and Taylor’s driving ability.
*New Feature* Player Plus/Minus Per Game (Wish I’d found this earlier)
Ryan Wittmann = +12.2
Louis Dale = +10.6
Jeff Foote = +10.1
Chris Wroblewski = +10.0
Jon Jacques = +9.6
Geoff Reeves = +3.4
Mark Coury = -0.1
Adam Wire = -0.4
What Cornell is really good at:
1. Shooting threes. The Big Red at the best three-point shooting team in the nation, knocking down 43.7% from deep.
2. Shooting free throws. Cornell shoots 73.4% from the line, which is good for 34th in the country.
3. Defensive rebounding. Cornell grabs 69.9% of all of their opponents’ misses, good for 64th overall.
What Cornell is really bad at:
1. Getting to the line. Luckily, despite being very good free throw shooters, the Chewing Gum are 21st worst at getting FTAs, attempting only a bit more than 2 for every 7 field goal attempts.
Relative Efficiency:
When Cornell has the ball: Cornell has scored 1.152 PPP (1.152 adjusted) in their first 32 games, while UW has given up 0.928 (0.873 adjusted) in their first 32.
When UW has the ball: Cornell has given up 0.966 (0.993 adjusted) in their 32 games, while UW has scored the 1.112 (1.157 adjusted) in their 32 games.
Pace: Cornell has played at 65 possessions per game and UW’s has played at 60.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Cornell Good Wins = N Temple (25)
Cornell Bad Losses = @ Penn (300)
UW Good Wins = N Maryland (10), Duke (1), Marquette (30), OSU (6), Purdue (13), MSU (26)
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB (142)
My Expectations:
1. Jason Bohannon breaks through his shooting slump and worst outing of the year (0 pts), scoring at least 12 points. He’s only netted 10% (2/20) in the past 3 games and will return to his previous hot streak (61% and 17.4 PPG in 8 games).
2. Cornell shoots below 38% from beyond the arc. I think “the live by the 3, die by the 3” team dies against Wisconsin for once in the tournament.
3. Leuer continues his hot streak, notching at least 15 points. He is just unstoppable inside 10 feet right now.
4. Badgers grab more than 75% of all rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. After giving up some costly offensive boards to Wofford, Wisconsin refocuses their rebounding efforts against Cornell.
My Prediction: The Badger pull it out, 61-57 in 55 possessions in another heart palpitation-inducing finish.
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