Saturday, March 13, 2010

Illinois BTT Edition Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: That was one weird game. If you really want to understand what happened, look at the shooting inside the arc, rebounding, and turnover sections. UW got three shots at the basket for every two that UI took and still lost.

Box Score

Bottom line: Poor shooting loses games even if you do everything else well.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had a staggering 23 extra field goal attempts and scored two fewer points from the floor than UI.

Pace: The game had 63 possessions. UW has been at 60 overall, 58 in conference. Given that UW went into foul mode to extend the game (and it worked!), the game was pretty normal until the last minute or two.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? Both teams had good defense and miserable offenses. UW’s offense was more miserable than UI’s.

UI scored .92 PPP and UW scored .86 PPP. That was our second worst offensive showing of the year (at MSU we were at .78 PPP). Our defense was good enough to win every game this year except two: At MSU (.78) and at OSU (.91).

Shooting: Shooting was a game of quantity and quality. UI shot better in all phases, but failed to get as many shots up because they turned the ball over at a high rate and got offensive rebounds at a low rate. UW took their extra opportunities and clanked them.

eFG%: UI’s eFG% was 60%, the best for an opponent this year. UW shot 37%, the worst for an opponent this year. Why didn’t we lose by 30? See the opportunity index.

3 pt shooting: UI hit 6 of 10 for (you do the math). UW was 10 of 29 for 34%, thanks to a late surge in shooting. UW outscored UI by 12 at the arc.

2pt shooting: UI hit 15 of 30 for (you do the math). UW was 8 of 34 for 24%. Let me repeat that: 8 made shots, 24% inside the arc. Ugh. What more can you say. UI got back 14 points inside.

1pt shooting: Both teams were comparably miserable from the line. UI was 10 of 17, 59% while UW was 8 of 14, 57%.

Rebounding: This takes some explaining. UI outrebounded UW by 7, 40 to 33. But, UW outrebounded UI on their respective offensive glass 11 to 2. So, what gives? In the end, UI did a good job defending their defensive glass and UW dominated their defensive glass.

UW Defensive end: Due to UI’s bumbling ways with the ball and excellent marksmanship, there were only 24 rebounding opportunities and UI got but 2, or 8%. That is the best job we have done all year protecting the glass.

UW Offensive End: Due to UW’s superior ball handling at more aggressive offensive rebounding (better than UI), there were 49 rebounding opportunities and UW got 11, or 22%. That is very good defensive rebounding for UI. So, despite getting more offensive rebounds 11-2, UW actually did not do a good job on the offensive glass. Of the 31 games played, that was our 26th best effort.

Turnovers: UW won the battle of the turnovers by a wide margin. UI had 17 for 27% and UW 5 for 8%. That was our second best job of the year avoiding TO’s (best was Michigan’s 7% due to more possessions in the game). Amazingly, UW has had but 5 turnovers 8 times this year. Amazing!

Opportunity Index: This game is making me question the value of the OI. UW had a +21 OI, our best of the year, yet we lost the game. What sense does that make? UW was plus 12 on TO’s and plus 9 on offensive rebounds.

Looking at it from a shot perspective, UW had +23 FGA’s and -2 trips to the line.

The moral of the story is bad shooting will overcome doing everything else right.

Fouls: UW had 18 and UI 16. UW picked some up in foul mode late in the game.

Playing time: Besides the starters, Evans had 13 minutes and Jarmusz 9. JBo played all 40 again.

Weber had a similar strategy playing only one substitute, Paul, more than 10 minutes (he played 13 also).

Notable Performances: What is notable is the lack of offensive performers this game. Not one player hit 50% of their FGA’s except Bruesewitz who was 1-2. The player with the best personal PPP was Nankivil who was 2-6, 5 points, but had 3 offensive rebounds and no TO’s giving him 5 points on 3 possessions. That is the best.

Leuer scored 14 but needed 13 FGA’s and 3 trips to the line (was a forgettable 2-5), no offensive boards and one turnover. So, Jon scored 14 on 17 possessions.

When we meet at the campfire, the offensive part of this game will be removed from our collective memories and we will regale in the excellent defense.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon combine for 26 points or more. McCamey and Richardson are great offensive players, but are suspect on defense against dribble penetration and J-Bo heats back up. Miss. They did combine for 26 FGA’s. The bad news is they made only 5. They scored 19.

2. Jon Leuer gets a double-double. His offensive production has been great but this game he finally gets aggressive on the boards. Miss. He got 14 points but only seven boards.

3. The Badger keep McCamey and Tisdale from reach a combined 26 points. I just think the team will have those two figured out this time. Miss. They scored 34 on 25 FGA’s (3-5 from the line).

My Prediction: The Badgers win 69-58 in 55 possessions. Bring on OSU. Miss. 58 to 54 in 64 possessions. Bring on a week’s rest.

Closing Thoughts: Some days you get the bear and some days the bear gets you.

Sometimes basketball is as simple as making shots. UW had plenty of good shots they did not make, particularly right next to the basket. Some of that was good UI defense, but much of it was poor marksmanship.

I hope we got that out of our system.

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