Saturday, March 20, 2010

Wofford Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: Whew.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW parlayed a very low turnover rate into extra shots, particularly FTA’s, to eke out a 4 point win.

Pace: The game had 56 possessions. That is fewer than our normal 60, 58 in B10 play.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? Definitely defense. Wofford scored .88 PPP compared to UW’s .95. In our 32 games, that was our 7th worst offensive performance (we usually are at 1.12, 1.09 in B10 play).

Holding Wofford to .88 was our 12th best defensive performance, however. We have been giving up .94 PPP, so it was only slightly better than our typically excellent defense.

Shooting: UW won because of quantity, not quality shooting. Both teams made 20 FG’s but UW needed 54 shots to get there, while Wofford used 48 shots to get their 20 makes. UW got the winning margin from the line.

UW took 9 of our 54 shots from deep, or 17%. That was the lowest percent of the year. We have been averaging 39% of our FGA’s from deep.

eFG%: Wofford outshot UW 45% to 38%. Ugh. That was our 3rd worst shooting day of the year. Wofford’s 45% is just below our usual 46% shooting by our opponents.

3 pt shooting: Neither team launched many threes. Wofford was 3 of 7 (43%) while UW was 1 of 9 for a miserable 11%. Wofford outscored UW by 6 from deep.

2pt shooting: Wofford hit 17 of 41 for 41% while UW took 4 more shots (45) and hit 2 more (19) for a plus 4 inside the line.

Wofford outscored UW by two from the field.

1pt shooting: UW won the game at the line. Wofford was an incredibly bad 6 of 13 (46%) while UW was a simply bad 12 of 19 (63%). Those 6 extra points from the line were enough to win the game.

Rebounding: Wofford won the raw rebounding battle 37 to 30. They had a good offensive rebounding day and it was more of less a draw on their defensive end.

UW Defensive end: There were 31 rebounding opportunities and UW got 20 leaving Wofford 11 or 35%. That is poor performance by UW’s standard (27th worst job of protecting the glass in 32 games).

UW Offensive End: UW bricked more shots than Wofford. There were 36 rebounding opportunities (5 more that the other end) and UW got 10 or 28%. That is more or less a draw.

Turnovers: Turnovers were a critical stat. UW had 4 turnovers or a microscopic 7% of possessions while Wofford had 11 or 20% of their possessions end with no shot. Those plus 7 turnovers resulted in more floor shots, and most importantly, more free throw attempts.

Opportunity Index: UW had a plus 6 OI (minus 1 on offensive rebounds, plus 7 on TO’s). UW ended up with 6 extra FTA’s and got 6 extra points from the line.

Fouls: There was not much fouling and the fouling that did occur was about the same for both teams. UW had 14 and Wofford 15. We typically have 16 and our opponents 18.

Playing time: Bo continues to shorten his bench, not surprisingly, and played 6 ten or more minutes with Evans getting 10, Jarmusz 8 and Bruesewitz 8. JBo and Jordan each played the whole game. Leuer played just a little less than 40. Keaton played but 17.

Notable Performances: Scoring was confined to 5 players with Leuer (20), Hughes (19) and Taylor (9) getting all but 5 of the teams 53 points. Leuer got his 20 on 16 FGA’s, 4-4 clutch FT’s, and two TO’s along with one offensive rebound. So, he got his 20 on 19 possessions. Hughes was more efficient getting his 19 on 13 FGA’s, 6-7 from the line, 2 offensive boards, and but one TO giving him 19 on 15 personal possessions. Trevon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

JBo got the collar going 0-4 but chipped in 6 rebounds and no turnovers.

Diggs got hot for awhile and then cooled off for a rather unspectacular 13 points. He took 12 FGA’s and had 5 turnovers, more than all the Badger’s combined. That gave him 13 points on 17 possessions or a rather poor .76 PPP.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Jon Leuer scores 15 or more points. Wofford may be athletic enough in the front court to stay with Leuer and Nankivil on perimeter, but Jon can just shoot over the top of them all day in the paint. Hit. Leuer got 20 and he got them by shooting over the bad guys.

2. Jordan Taylor scores 15 or more points. The Terriers will put their best perimeter defenders on Trevon and Jason, leaving him with a defender he can likely abuse. Miss. Taylor got 9. They did control Bohannon, however.

3. Wisconsin blocks at least 6 shots as a team. The Terriers love to attack the hoop and don’t have the size to do it with multiple rejections each game. Wisconsin is a much better shot blocking team, with Leuer, Nankivil, Evans, Hughes… and Bohannon, than your average SoCon team. Miss. UW had no blocks. Air JBo has been grounded recently. Fly, JBo, fly …

4. The Badgers hit better than 35% from three-point land. My guess is that with Leuer eating up Wofford inside, they start trying to double down on him, giving the rest of the team open looks from outside that they should knock down. Miss. One of nine is a pathetic 11%.

My Prediction: The Badgers dominate the paint, beating the Terriers 64-50 in a 56-possession game. Hit. Right possessions, right on Wofford , but low on UW. UW won 53 to 49 in 45.

Closing Thoughts: The great thing about March Madness is the upsets. It is not so fun when your team is getting upset. But, it is all part of the package.

Both the B10 and BE have 4 teams left.

Cornell demonstrates the difficulty the Committee has in trying to seed teams. Until today, Cornell had not played a top 100 team since January 6 (they lost to Kansas by 5 on the road). How good is such a team? I guess we will find out Sunday. If our shooting does not improve, we could have a big problem. Keep those turnovers coming.

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