Opening Thoughts: There’s a lot on the line for the Illini Sunday afternoon. Barring a Big Ten tournament championship, this is a must win to have a shot at the NCAA tournament. The Badgers are only really playing for seed. They could sink to 6 or rise to a 4 or maybe even 3.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #12 and Illinois #60. He makes Wisconsin a 3 or 4-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and Illinois #52. He predicts a 62-58 Badger victory in 60 possessions and gives the Badgers a 69% chance of winning.
Illinois Rotation:
*G – 6’3” JR Demetri McCamey (15.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.3 SPG, 54% 2PT, 37% 3PT, 107.0 OR, 27% Poss, 23% Shot, 23% TO, 1% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 3.7 FTR, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’3” FR D.J. Richardson (10.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 40% 3PT, 78% FT, 106.3 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 17% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 2.9 FTR, 56% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’9” JR Bill Cole (4.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 59% 2PT, 37% 3PT, 116.9 OR, 11% Poss, 12% Shot, 14% TO, 6% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 2.0 FTR, 56% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’9” JR Mike Davis (10.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, 98.7 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 14% TO, 8% OffReb, 23% DefReb, 1.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
*C – 7’1” JR Mike Tisdale (11.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 57% 2PT, 83% FT, 115.5 OR, 19% Poss, 20% Shot, 16% TO, 9% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 3.7 FTR, 0.4% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’4” FR Brandon Paul (8.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 92.4 OR, 27% Poss, 29% Shot, 15% TO, 8% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 2.8 FTR, 47% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’1” JR Jeff Jordan (1.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 91.4 OR, 11% Poss, 8% Shot, 31% TO, 3% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 1.6 FTR, 16% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’7” SR Dominique Keller (4.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 52% 2PT, 99.2 OR, 23% Poss, 25% Shot, 16% TO, 7% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 1.9 FTR, 23% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (21% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.76 is average)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
What Illinois is really good at:
1. Pump faking. They get blocked slightly less than 1 in 20 two-point attempts. This ranks 1st in the Big Ten.
2. Defending beyond the arc. They allow only 32.8%, second best in the Big Ten.
What Illinois is really bad at:
1. Getting to the line. They attempt only 4 free throws to every 13 shot attempts. This is 9th in the Big Ten. They are also 9th in percentage when they get there, hitting 69.6%.
2. Forcing turnovers. They only force 1 turnovers every 6 possessions, second worst in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Illinois has the ball: Illinois has scored the third worst 1.00 PPP in their first 17 Big Ten games, while UW has given up a league leading 0.94 in their first 17.
When UW has the ball: Illinois has the fifth best defensive PPP at 1.00 in their 17 Big Ten games, while UW has scored the conference best 1.10 in their 17 Big Ten games.
Pace: Illinois has played at 65 possessions per game in their 17 Big Ten games compared to UW’s 58 in their 17 Big Ten games.
Top 50 Wins and Bottom 247 Losses:
Illinois Good Wins = @Clemson, Vanderbilt, MSU, @Wisconsin
Illinois Bad Losses = (N) Utah, (N) Indiana
UW Good Wins = (N) Maryland, Duke, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, MSU
UW Bad Losses = @ UW-GB
My expectations:
1. Illinois takes 11 or less free throws. As a primarily jump shooting team and the Badgers not fouling ways, Illinois shouldn’t get to the line much.
2. Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon combine for 26 points or more. McCamey and Richardson are great offensive players, but are suspect on defense against dribble penetration.
3. Badgers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. They’ve been on a roll at threes lately, and I think it continues despite Illinois’ great defense.
4. Jon Leuer gets a double-double. I don’t have a justification for this, just a feeling.
My Prediction: The Badgers win 63-56 in 57 possessions. Despite the Big Ten telling the refs to let the Illini win to get more teams in the NCAA tournament, the Badgers prevail.
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