Friday, December 4, 2009

Grambling State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Who’s next?! After that AWESOME win against the Dukies, Wisconsin takes on the Green Bay Pa-, I mean, Tigers of Grambling State. I’ll just be honest… Wisconsin’s size and skill is going to beat the living crap out of these guys. Before you say it, I’ve looked, and North Dakota State had a lot more going on back in 2006 than the Tigers do.

What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin has UW ranked #7 and Grambling State #346. He has Wisconsin as a 37-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy has Wisconsin ranked #27 and Grambling State #335. He gives Wisconsin a 96% chance of winning.

Grambling State Probable Rotation:
*G – 5’9” SO Kevin Loyd (4.8 PPG, 2.0 APG, 1.5 RPG, 47% 2PT)
*G – 5’10” SR Ariece Perkins (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.5 SPG)
*G – 6’3” RS FR Torez Young (7.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 83% FT)
*G – 6’5” JR Lance Fuertado (13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 46% 2PT)
*F – 6’9” SR George Akpele (4.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 37% 2PT)
G – 5’7” JR Donald Qualls (9.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG)
F – 6’8” SR Maurice Wilkerson (2.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 57% 2PT)
G – 6’4” FR Terdarin Bryson (2.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG)
G – 6’5” JR Demarcus Blunt (3.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG)

This season they have played at a pace of 74 possessions per game, similar to last season’s North Carolina team. Their defensive footprint on Ken Pom is inconclusive from their relatively high amount of turnovers caused, high frequency of 3 point shooting by their opponent, and high frequency to send players to the line. Whatever it is, it’s not very good.

Last season they went 6-23. They return 36.5% of their minutes, 38.5% of their rebounding, and 37.9% of their scoring. There was a huge amount of turnover in the roster with a bunch of jucos on the roster this season and an interim head coach.

Key Players: Ariece Perkins – Perkins is their leading scorer, but is hardly efficient doing it. He has an offensive rating of 0.91, shooting 44% from 2, 39% from 3, 63% from the line, and turns it over 19% of his possessions.

Lance Fuertado – Same is true for Fuertado. He has an even worse offensive rating of 0.89, with 46% from 2, 33% from 3, and 53% from the line. He is better at protecting the ball, turning it over 14.5% of the time.

What Grambling State is really good at:

1. Getting to the free throw line. They attempt just about 5 free throws for every 12 field goal attempts, good for 90th in the nation.

2. Shooting free throws. The Tigers are shooting 76.1% as a team this season, good for 32nd, which is odd because they…

What Grambling State is really bad at:

1. Shooting 2s and 3s. Despite shooting really well from the line, Grambling shoots 22.2% from 3, 4th worst in the nation, and 40.7% from 2, 28th worst.

2. Protecting the ball. They are 14th worst in the country at not turning it over (26.9%), and 3rd worst at not getting the ball stolen from them (15.7%).

3. Defending the 3. Their opponents are shooting 39.1% from 3, making them 287th in the nation at defending treys.

4. Not fouling. They are 4th in the nation at sending their opponent to the free throw line. For every 10 field goal attempts their opponent takes, they take 6 free throws too. If the Badgers take their average amount of shots, they would shoot 33 free throws. They also average 5 fouls per 16 possessions.

5. Defending the 2. They allow their opponents to shoot 50.0% from inside the arc, good for 223rd in the nation.

6. Offensive Rebounding. It may be style of play or lack of size, but they grab only 31.1% of their misses, good for 232nd. Wisconsin is at 32.0%.

Relative efficiency:

When Grambling State has the ball:
Grambling has scored a pitiful 0.841 PPP in their first four games (0.801 against D-1 teams), while UW has given up 0.93 in their first six.

When UW has the ball: Grambling State gave up an average 1.00 PPP in their first four games (1.08 against D-1), while UW has scored an average 1.06 in their first six.

Pace: Grambling State has played at 74 possessions per game so far in their first four games compared to UW’s 64 in their first six games.

My expectations:

1. Badgers force the inside game, with Leuer and Nankivil combining for more than 25 points. With Grambling’s extreme lack of size, I like Wisconsin’s bigs scoring opportunities.

2. Badgers protect the ball, turning it over less than 17% of the time. Grambling has forced some turnovers, but I think the Badgers are too disciplined for it to be a factor.

3. The guards post up a bunch in the offense and score on post moves. As previously stated, they are tiny, so tiny that Hughes, Bohannon, Wilson, Evans, Jarmusz, and Taylor should be able to abuse their guards in the post.

4. Badgers rain threes, shooting better than 40% from 3. The team is on a hot streak from 3, and play a team that isn’t good at defending them.

5. Due to #1 and #3, Wisconsin attempts more than 28 free throws. If Wisconsin plays their average pace and Grambling sends them to the line as often as they have others, Wisconsin should attempt 33 FTs.

My Prediction: Badgers continue their winning ways, and cruise to an easy 83-44 win in 70 possessions.

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