Opening Comments: Congratulations on a game well played by GB. They deserved a great victory.
The game had a lot of parallels to our Duke game, but in reverse. Big win against a ranked team on the home court. Upsets are what make basketball fun. It can be hard to swallow when you are the team getting upset, but that is part of the process.
I am glad we went up and played them. I wish we would have won, but no sense in ducking an opponent because there is a chance of losing an away game, like some BCS schools do. Bo learned something about his team that will pay dividends later, I hope.
Just like I said after the Duke game, “you are not as good as your best win or as bad as your worst loss.” This may not be our worst loss. There is a lot of time left to play.
Summarizing the game in a few words: GB was awarded 8 extra possessions from turnovers and found 4 extra points, largely through superior marksmanship beyond the arc.
Pace: The game played out at 75 possessions. That included an extra 5 minutes of playing time. Without the OT, it would have been around 67 possessions.
Efficiency: Was it offense or defense that lost the game? Our defense sucked.
UW gave up 1.17 PPP. The 1.17 is more than Duke (1.11) or Gonzaga (1.14).
On offense, UW scored 1.12 PPP. We had been scoring at 1.10, so that was on par. The national average is .97.
Shooting: GB scorched the nets, particularly outside the arc. UW could not make enough free throws to offset GB superior marksmanship.
eFG%: GB shot an at 56% Yikes! That is worst of the year. We usually give up 43%.
UW’s hit a healthy 52%. That should win most games. Factor in our +5 offensive rebound advantage and we did pretty well.
3 pt shooting: UW took one extra three attempt and ended up losing 6 points behind the arc.
GB hit a stunning 9 of 18 for 50%. Our opponents had been laboring at 32%.
UW hit a pedestrian 37% going 7 of 19. While that is actually better than our typical 33%, it pales compared to GB.
2pt shooting: Both teams were comparably efficient inside the arc but GB got up more shots. GB was 19 of 40 for 48% while UW was 17 of 34 for 50%. GB added 4 more points inside the arc to give them a +10 from the field.
1pt shooting: UW was effective at getting to the line. GB was 23 of 30 for 77% while UW was 29 of 40 for 73%. UW got to multiply their somewhat smaller 73% by a larger number and gained 6 points from the line.
Rebounding: UW had a victory on the boards.
UW Defensive end: There were 35 rebounding opportunities and UW protected the glass well grabbing 26 leaving GB 9 or 26%. That is good, and on par with UW’s superior defensive rebounding skills.
UW Offensive End: There were 37 rebounding opportunities and UW snared 14 or 38%. That is very good, particularly for UW who prefers to play team defense than risk breakaway points while crashing the offensive boards.
UW had +5 offensive rebounds (14 to 9) which helps the efficiency. An offensive rebound has the effect or undoing a missed shot.
Turnovers: This is the story of the game. One cannot give 8 extra possessions to a team that scores 1.17 PPP and expect to win. Whatever gains occurred through crashing the boards were “thrown away” (literally) with turnovers.
GB had 10 or 13% which is very good. UW had 18 or 24% turnover rate, which is below average nationally and way below average for UW. We typically are around 16%. Yikes!!!!
As an FYI, this game erased our yearlong turnover advantage. We were a plus 8 on the year and are now ever-Steven. Ugh.
Fouls: GB fouled 26 times to UW’s 22. Those 4 extra fouls resulted in 10 extra FTA and 6 extra points.
Playing time: Bo went 7 deep with a guard heavy line up. Keaton played only 15. JBo lead the team again with 43.
GB played 8 players with 10 or more minutes.
Notable Performances: Leuer found easy pickin’s in this one. Jon had a 26-10 dub dub. He scored 26 on 12 shots (8-12 FG’s, 9-12 FT’s) blocked two but contributed to the TO parade with two. Jon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.
Hughes had a weird day. The good news: 28 points. The bad news: he missed 11 FGA’s, 5 FTS’s, and 3 TO’s.
Jordan Taylor had a forgettable day going 0-6 from the field and committing 3 TO’s. The good news was he hit 3-4 FTA’s and grabbed 4 boards.
Tim Jarmusz shot well scoring 9 on 6 shots, 3-4 from deep. But, he uncharacteristically had 4 TO’s.
For GB, Perine scored 22 but needed 19 shots to do it. By my estimation, UW could have survived the onslaught on Perine, Cotton and Fletcher. Those guys went 6-15 (40%) from beyond the arc and 14 of 33 (42%) inside the arc. The killer was Evans and Barkley going 3-3 from deep.
Grading Shetown’s Predictions:
1. Badgers hold the Phoenix to 38% or less from behind the arc. With Wisconsin's great perimeter defense, they hold down GB's amazing outside shooting. Miss. I criticized this prediction as not being too aggressive. Little did I know. GB hit 50% from deep.
2. Badgers shut down their offensive rebounding, holding them to grabbing 28% or less of their opportunities. The Phoenix grab quite a offensive rebounding but the Badgers put an end to that in this game. Hit. They got 26%.
3. Pop and Jordan hold Fletcher to less than 14 points. Pop and Jordan are great defenders and have a size advantage, adding up to shutting Fletcher down. Miss. Besides fletchers 18, Perine got 22 and Cotton 15.
4. Badgers shoot better than 52% inside the arc. Green Bay has been hot shooting inside the arc this season but I like the Badgers to cool them off. Slight miss. UW hit 50%. One more basket would have helped.
My Prediction: Badgers keeping rolling, defeating the Phoenix 72-60 in a 64-possession game. Miss. 88-84 in an overtime aided 75 possessions.
Closing Thoughts: What happens before Christmas is ancient history come January. This may turn out to be a bad loss, I don’t know. My guess is GB will have a successful year in the Horizon and challenge Butler for the crown.
My concern is GB provided the blueprint for how to beat UW. Go small and press the guards. Make Hughes try to beat you one on 5. This is precisely what MU will attempt on Saturday. UW must make some quick fixes.
My congratulations to Green Bay on a job well done.