Saturday, December 12, 2009

Marquette Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: That was a nice rebound from the GB game. MU hung around and made the game competitive, but UW held the lead the whole game and did what they had to.

Leuer and Hayward each had similar double doubles. Leuer was 24/12 and Hayward was 21/12. So, they had about the same day, right? Read on in Grading Shetown for details.

Summarizing the game in a few words: The two teams scored 49 points from the floor, but UW took 6 extra possessions from turnovers and got 9 extra points from the line.

Pace: The game had 63 Possessions. Wow, MU plays boring basketball (sarcasm alert).

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? Chalk this one up to the defense (or poor MU offense – take your pick). UW scored at 1.14 PPP, which is on our average and actually good for playing against good competition.

Our defense held MU to 1.00. While higher than our usual .85 PPP, it was good enough.

Shooting: MU won from deep, UW won inside the arc, and UW won from the line.

eFG%: MU hit at 48% to UW’s 47%. Score one for MU’s marksmanship from deep.

3 pt shooting: MU invested 8 extra shots from deep and it was a good investment. MU hit 7/18 for 38% compared to 3/10, 30% for UW. UW lost 12 points from beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: UW got the twelve points back inside the arc. MU was 14/33 for 42% while UW was 20/42 or 48%. So, things were even steven from the floor.

1pt shooting: MU was 14/21 or 68% from the line while UW was 23/33 for 70%. Obviously, fans were taking note of our poor free throw defense and successfully put the whammy on MU free throw shooters. Bo, the fans should get a game ball.

But, it was not quality but quantity that won from the line. UW took 12 extra shots and made 9 of them. Those nine points were the difference in the game.

Rebounding: MU had two extra offensive rebounds otherwise rebounding was a push.

UW Defensive end: There were 32 rebounding opportunities and UW got 20, leaving MU with 12 or 38%. UW usually holds opponents to 26%, so this was a real victory for MU.

UW Offensive End: On UW’s offensive end, UW got 10 of 30 for 33%, MU 20 or 67%. That is the national average but high for UW.

Turnovers: This was a key to the game.

MU had 13 for 21% while UW lost 7 for 11%. Given that UW had 18 TO’s against UW-GB and both UWGB and MU were guard heavy teams, this was something of a surprise.

UW took those extra 6 possessions and used them for 1 extra field goal attempt and 12 extra free throw attempts (I know, this does not compute exactly). Those 12 FTA’s provided the 9 point margin.

Fouls: MU fouled 27 times compared to UW’s 18. We need GoMarquette to come over and give his expert analysis on this one.

Playing time: Bo shorted his bench to a late-season like 7 players with Wilson getting 3 minutes. Leuer got 38 minutes and Bohannon 34. Jarmusz chipped in 26 while effectively defending Butler.

Notable Performances: What can you say about Leuer? He had his second straight dub dub getting 24 and 12. Jon knocked down 24 on 14 shots, 1-1 from deep, and 5-7 from the line. Throw in 3 blocks and one steal and you get the player of the game. Jon, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Hughes had 13, but needed 11 shots to do it. He was 7-12 from the line. Taylor had 13 on 11 shots, which is big improvement over the GB game. Jarmusz had a nice line getting 5 points on 1-1 from the floor, 3-4 from the line and grabbed 4 boards and 0 turnovers.

For MU, Hayward had a mixed day. He was as prolific as usual, but also as efficient as usual – which will need to improve if MU is going to win more, IMHO. He had a 21-12 dub dub but needed 21 shots from the floor to get there (missing 13). He also contributed 3 TO;s, and TO’s doomed MU.

DJ-O also had a mixed day. He scored 13 and hit 3 cold-blooded treys. But, he also contributed 5 turnovers. Ouch.

Acker scored 6 on 5 shots but added 5 boards, which is remarkable for his height.

Butler scored 8 on 6 shots, had 4 boards and 2 TO’s. I was very concerned about Butler but he was successfully contained.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions:

1. Badgers hold onto the ball, turning it over 16% or less. Marquette’s pressure has forced many turnovers, but I think Wisconsin’s veteran guards nullify that strength, especially after Bo’s drills today and tomorrow. Major hit. UW had 7 for 11%. The plus 6 TO margin was critical.

2. Jon Leuer scores 18 points or more. Marquette just does not have an answer for Jon on defense. Major hit. He got 24 and MU did not have an answer. His efficiency was through the roof at 1.6 PPP. FYI, Hayward had .88 PPP.

3. Jimmy Butler and Lazar Hayward score 27 points or less combined. Butler and Hayward are usually match-up problems for teams, but Wisconsin should be able to keep them in check with Jarmusz, Evans, Bruesewitz, Nankivil, and Leuer. Near Miss. They scored 29 points, but they needed 27 shots to get them.

4. Badgers hold the Eagles to 33% or less shooting outside the arc. They have been shooting well behind the arc lately but I like the Badgers to cool them off like most teams they have played. Miss. MU was a productive 38% from deep, which makes for aeFG% of 55%.

5. The Badgers grab 72% or more of the defensive rebounding opportunities. Marquette is pretty good at getting offensive rebounds (34.6%) but the Badgers are just dominant on the defensive glass. I think the Badgers win this battle. Miss. We got 67%, but it was a critical problem because we almost matched them on the other end.

Shetown’s Prediction: The Badgers regroup to make Curly and his Stooges have a sad trip back home on I-94, winning 73-60 in a 63-possession game. Hit. 72-63 in 63 possessions.

Closing Thoughts: By the associative property of basketball, UW-GB is better than UW, GB, Duke, Arizona, and Maryland.

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