Friday, January 29, 2010

Purdue 2.0 Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: I’m kinda glad I wasn’t able to watch this game. I got in my car leaving work with 6 seconds left in the game and listened to rest. I assumed that they would be down by double digits most of the game and make a futile comeback to make it a respectable final score. As you may notice, I’m not turumon, as he scored himself some tickets to the game.

Summarizing the game in a few words: It was a tightly contested game swaying back and forth with Purdue putting on a run with Hughes on the bench from which the Badgers couldn’t quite recover. Hughes had a chance to make yet another game-winner with 1 second left, but it didn’t fall for him this time.

Pace: The game had 58 possessions.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? The cause for this loss was the offense, namely free throw shooting, as the Badgers scored a PPP of .98 while allowing Purdue to score 1.03. On a normal offensive night, UW would win this one. But it’s a credit to Purdue’s defense.

Shooting: UW got more shots from the floor, 50 to 49, but was outscored by one from the floor.

eFG%: Purdue hit an eFG% of 51%. On the other end, UW hit 49%.

3-pt shooting: Purdue was a good 2 of 5 or 40% from the arc. Meanwhile, UW made 7 extra deep shots, and launched 22 more to get those extra 7 shots. UW ended up going 9 of 23 or 39%. UW picked up 21 points outside the arc.

2-pt shooting: Inside, Purdue was a good 22 of 44 for 50%. UW took fewer shots, 27, made fewer, 11, and hit a lower percentage – 41%. Due to Purdue’s superior quantity and quality inside the arc, they outscored UW by 22 inside the arc.

1-pt shooting: Purdue was a comparatively excellent 10 of 15 for 66%. UW was a stunningly bad 8 of 14 for 57%. Those 2 points from the line for Purdue make the difference.

Rebounding: Purdue outrebounded UW in raw numbers 37 to 25. Ugh. Purdue did great on the offensive end and very good on their defensive end.

UW Defensive End: There were 29 rebounding opportunities on UW’s defensive end and Purdue got 11 or 38%. That is more than the 24% we typically give up and it is more than the national average of 33%. So, I would call that a major victory for Purdue.

UW Offensive End: On the other end, Wisconsin clanked enough shots to get 33 rebound opportunities and UW only got 7 or 21%. That is not good at all. We should be pushing 30% or better.

Turnovers: PSU had 13 or 22% turnover rate while UW had 9 or 15%. That gave UW a +4 turnover margin.

Opportunity Index: UW had a +4 turnover and -4 offensive rebounds for a neutral Opportunity Index.

Fouls: Both teams had 16. In conference, we have been averaging 15.8 and our opponents 17.2.

Playing time: Bo went 7 deep. Trevon, Keaton, Jordan, and Jason all got over 33. Rob Wilson played 23, Jarmusz played 19, and Evans played 11. Berggren had 3 and Bruesewitz 2.

Purdue played only 8 ten or more minutes.

Notable Performances:

Taylor scored 13 on 12 shots, 5-6 from the line, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists. He had one turnover and two steals. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of turumon’s people.

Keaton Nankivil scored 25 on 14 shots, 7-8 from the deep, and 6 boards, 3 steals, and 1 block. Unfortunately, he also had 4 turnovers. Keaton… people, fires…

Mike Bruesewitz joins the ranks of the Trillion Man March with his stat-less 2 minutes.

Grading My Predictions

1. The Badgers break their icy streak from 3, nailing 35% or better from 3. I just think they are due for a decent outing from the arc. Hit! They shot 39%.

2. Bohannon nets more than 11. To go with #1, J-Bo lights it up from trey. Miss. Who knew Nankivil would be the one making all the triples?

3. Wisconsin grabs more than 75% of the rebounding opportunities on defense. Last time Wisconsin grabbed an awesome 85% and have rebounded even better defensively without Leuer. Miss. Wisconsin only got 62%.

4. Purdue shoots worse than 29% from 3. Purdue is bad at shooting them and Wisconsin is good at defending them. Miss. Purdue is learning to avoid their weakness, only attempting 5 threes, making 2 of them.

5. Jordan Taylor scores more than 14. He continues his great performance from the PSU game. Miss. He got 13, so I was off by 2.

My Prediction: The Badgers drop one, losing a 67-63 game in 60 possessions. Hit, but I wish it wasn’t right.

Closing Thoughts: I don't want to assume too much from a two-game sample size, but I like that Keaton has seemingly regained that aggressiveness on the offensive end of the court that he had in the early non-conference season but faded in December. It's very encouraging that they were a shot away from winning this game considering their performances in the previous 4 games. The real test comes on Groundhog's Day against Moving Screen University.

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