Thursday, November 11, 2010

Prairie View A&M Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Well, Wisconsin and Marquette are opening up their seasons with a team that couldn’t be confused for anything more than a muffin coated in frosting. The Panthers of Prairie View A&M hail from Texas and the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Last season, they went 16-14 (11-7), although four of those victories were against non-D1 opponents. They only played five teams in Pomeroy’s top 221 teams. They went 0-5 against those teams with an average margin of loss at 20.4 points. This season, they only return 6 of their top 11 players, and lost their leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker. He was also the only player that had an efficiency rating that was above the national average. Also, I was feeling a little bipartisan and decided to post the analysis on the MU forum as well. Forgive me for my sin.

What the expert nerds say:

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 75-47 Wisconsin victory with a 0.4% chance of upset.

Prairie View A&M Likely Rotation (Last Season’s Statistics)
*G – 5’8” JR Michael Griffin (9.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 81.4 OR, 26% Poss, 27% Shot, 22% TO, 3% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 2.3 FTR, 54% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 5’10” SR Trant Simpson (16.1 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 95.4 OR, 28% Poss, 26% Shot, 22% TO, 2% OffReb, 6% DefReb, 5.4 FTR, 28% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’2” JR Tim Meadows (7.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 91.4 OR, 15% Poss, 16% Shot, 19% TO, 4% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 2.8 FTR, 48% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’7” SO Michael Webb (2.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 55% 2PT, 89.7 OR, 19% Poss, 17% Shot, 20% TO, 8% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 6.1 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’7” SR Brandon Webb (3.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 78.8 OR, 23% Poss, 21% Shot, 22% TO, 8% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 5.2 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’5” SR Duwan Kornegay (6.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 83.8 OR, 24% Poss, 27% Shot, 19% TO, 8% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 2.8 FTR, 58% of FGAs are 3PT)

G - 6’0” SO Chris Sights (2.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 RPG, 84.7 OR, 16% Poss, 13% Shot, 27% TO, 3% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 4.1 FTR, 19% of FGAs are 3PT)

The rest of the roster are five freshman and transfers/guys that didn’t see time last season.

OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession (100.8 is average)
Poss = possession usage when on the court
Shot = share of shots taken when on the court
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover (20.4% is average)
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
FTR = # of free throws taken per 10 field goal attempts (3.77 is average)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 33%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%

What Prairie View is really good at:

1. Forcing turnovers. They forced their opponents into turnovers on 23% of their possessions, which was good for 38th in the nation. This is similar to Purdue, Kansas State, Tennessee, Michigan, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Marquette.

2. Defending the arc. Their opponents shot an icy 30.2% from beyond the three-point line, which was 23rd in the country. Cincinnati, Michigan, UConn, DePaul, and Iowa shot similarly.

3. Defending the charity stripe. Something tells me this was heavily influenced by their terrible conference opponents as with the three-point shooting. Their opponents shot a horrendous 63.3%, which was the 5th worst in the nation. Apparently the Panthers’ student section have more ugly celebrity heads to distract the shooters than Indiana. Maybe they have a bunch of Snooki and The Situation heads.

What Prairie View is really bad at:

1. Pump-faking. They had a bit more than one out of every 10 two-point attempts blocked, which was 261st in the nation. This is similar to Marquette, Villanova, Tennessee, Penn State, and Michigan.

2. Shooting... from everywhere. They shot 27.8% from 3 (341st), 43% from inside the arc (315th), and 61.3% from the line (339th). That made them the 8th worst shooting team in the country last season. Virginia Tech, Indiana, USC, and DePaul were the only BCS conference teams in the bottom 100, with DePaul being the only one in the bottom 65.

3. Offensive Rebounding. The Panthers grabbed 30.8% of all the rebounding opportunities on their offensive end, good for 238th. As talked about, this is probably more a product of scheme, as Marquette and Wisconsin are fractions of a percentage worse than Prairie View.

Relative efficiency:

When Prairie View has the ball: They scored a god awful 0.84 PPP last season, while UW gave up a stingy 0.89 last season.

When UW has the ball: They gave up an average 1.01 last season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 last season.

Pace: Prairie View played at 67 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. The Badgers grab more than 81% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive side. Wisconsin stresses defensive rebounding and is taller at every position. PVAMU doesn't stress offensive rebounding.

2. The Badgers make more free throws than PVAMU attempts. This is more of a wish, but it's very probably given our great frontcourt.

3. The Badgers hold the Panthers to less than 21 points in the paint. Wisconsin dominates the inside with superior size and skill on the defensive end.

4. The Badger have less than 11 turnovers. This is a bit gutsy for the start of the year, but I trust Jordan Taylor and Josh Gasser to reward my boldness.

The Badgers blow the Panthers out of the gym with an ultra efficient 81-52 victory in 65 possessions.

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