Thursday, November 18, 2010

UNLV Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: With the 4 cupcakes played and manhandled, the Badgers have their first real test of the season… a date with an unpleasant memory, the Rebels of UNLV. Since I’m young enough, all I think of when I think of UNLV is a football team were make our whipping boy every few seasons and Lon Kruger’s son, Kevin, and his buddies making clutch 3 after 3 in the United Center against a Brian Butch-less Badger team. This UNLV team is Kruger-less (well, at least Kevin-less), but they are mighty talented, boasting transfers from UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, and Memphis with some jucos and normal recruits filling out the rotation.

Forum to Visit: Rebel Net

What the expert nerd says:

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-64 Rebel victory in 63 possessions, with a 40% chance of Badger victory.

Jeff Sagarin has UNLV as a 4-point favorite.

UNLV Likely Rotation (Last Season’s Statistics or First 2 Games Statistics)

*G – 6’2” JR Oscar Bellfield (9.3 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.5 RPG, 105.2 OR, 21% Poss, 20% Shot, 19% TO, 2.0 FTR, 46% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’3” SO Anthony Marshall (5.3 PPG, 3.1 APG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 85.2 OR, 21% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 3.8 FTR, 14% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’6” SR Derrick Jasper (6.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 100.3 OR, 17% Poss, 16% Shot, 18% TO, 4.0 FTR, 29% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G/F – 6’8” JR Chace Stanback (10.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.4 APG, 100.9 OR, 23% Poss, 25% Shot, 17% TO, 2.1 FTR, 34% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’8” SO Quintrell Thomas (7.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 125.0 OR, 33% TO, 5.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’4” SR Tre’Von Willis (17.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 113.4 OR, 29% Poss, 27% Shot, 17% TO, 5.0 FTR, 36% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’3” SO Justin Hawkins (3.3 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 101.8 OR, 17% Poss, 16% Shot, 13% TO, 4.3 FTR, 30% of FGAs are 3PT)

F/C - 6’10” JR Brice Massamba (4.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 93.2 OR, 16% Poss, 16% Shot, 28% TO, 3.0 FTR, 45% of FGAs are 3PT)

F - 6’11” FR Carlos Lopez (6.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.5 BPG, 2.0 APG, 100.0 OR, 33% TO, 10.0 FTR, 13% of FGAs are 3PT)

G/F - 6’6” FR Karam Mashour (10.0 PPG, 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.0 RPG, 166.7 OR, 0% TO, 0.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)


Tim Locums (>37% 3PT)

Bellfield – 37.2

Rick Olsens (>78% FT)

Willis – 85.8, Stanback – 80.3

Andy Kowskes (>54% 2PT)

Massamba – 73.2, Willis – 58.3, Jasper – 54.2

Alando Tuckers (>10% OReb)


Brian Butchs (>15% DReb)

Stanback – 25.0, Jasper – 21.0

Rashard Griffiths (>3.5% Blk)

Stanback – 3.7

Mike Kelleys (>3% Stl)

Marshall – 4.0, Hawkins – 3.6, Stanback – 3.5

Tracy Websters (>20% Ast)

Bellfield – 31.1, Willis -24.5, Jasper – 21.1

Feel free to suggest different names you feel fit better, or if you want me to include to polar opposites (Hack-a-Shaqs, Doug Gottliebs, etc)

What UNLV is really good at:

1. Taking care of the ball. Last season, they averaged 3 turnovers per 18 possessions, which was good for 28th in the nation.

2. Defensive Rebounding. They grabbed a hair more than 69% of all the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, good for 89th in the nation. Wisconsin was a hair below 74%, or 2nd in the nation.

3. Shooting FTs and two-pointers. They shot 53.4% inside the arc and 71.8% from the line, which was 15th and 80th respectively.

4. Forcing turnovers. They forced 3 turnovers per 13 possessions, which was 38th in the nation.

5. Defending the paint. They surrendered a measly 43.2% inside the arc, good for 18th in the nation.

What UNLV is really bad at:

1. Shooting threes. I’m so happy to see this, as I’m sure you are too. With the departure of one sharpshooter, and the season-ending injury to another, UNLV’s returning players combined to shoot a poor 30.4% last season with only one shooting above 31%, which ranked them 307th.

2. Offensive Rebounding. They only grabbed 29.6% of all rebounding opportunities on the offensive end, good for 276th. Wisconsin was 249th.

3. Getting to the charity stripe and keeping the other team off it. They must be a jump-shooting team like Illinois because they shot well from 2, but only took 3 FTAs per 10 FGAs. On the contrary, their opponents took almost 5 FTAs per 10 FGAs. Both were 311th in the country.

4. Defending free throws. Apparently MWC opponents can tune out that damn “Reb-bels” chant easily since they knocked down almost 71% of their free throws against them.

Relative efficiency:

When UNLV has the ball: They scored a good 1.10 PPP last season, while UW gave up a stingy 0.89 last season.

When UW has the ball: They gave up a great 0.92 last season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 last season.

Pace: UNLV played at 67 possessions per game last season compared to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Leuer continues his tear and scores above 19 again. UNLV doesn’t have a guy to cover him… Not many teams we face will.

2. The Badgers shoot better than 38% from beyond the arc. With the Rebels being concerned about letting Leuer in the paint, they’ll give a few too many open looks from outside that the Badgers bury.

3. The Badgers continue their dominance on the offensive glass, grabbing 39% or more of the opportunities. I’ll keep rolling the dice with this one until I’m wrong.

4. Badgers hold Willis to 10 points or less. I think the Badgers badger the leading scorer for UNLV into a bad game his first go=around this deason after serving his paltry 3-game suspension for a Boo Wade-type incident.

When the final buzzer sounds on Saturday night, I predict a Badger victory by the score of 70-63 in 64 possessions.

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