Opening Thoughts: I didn’t like how they let off the gas and allowed a 15-0 run at the end of the game, but hey, we won comfortably regardless. I noticed quite a bit of people questioning the shooting prowess, or lack there of, by the Badgers from 3-point range, citing the past 2 games as evidence. Well, I want to lend some credibility to those blaming the court specs of the gym in Orlando. All 8 teams in the tournament had a combined 34.3% mark from the arc before the start of the tournament, which is just about the national average most seasons. In the tournament, they have combined for 27.5%, just a bit less than 7% lower. It’s the difference between 149th and 292nd in the country. Half the teams (Wisconsin, Manhattan, Notre Dame, and Georgia) dropped their percentage by a number between 15.8 to 19.7 points! Boston College improved by 12.6% and Texas A&M by 8.5%, but the other six teams shot at least 4% worse. But I digress, Notre Dame is on the docket…
Forums: ND Nation, UHND, Irish Illustrated, Irish Eyes
What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.
I think Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-62 Badger victory in 61 possessions with a 38% chance of an upset. I hand calculated this myself and it doesn’t seem right to me, especially the number of possessions since it’s below both teams’ averages.
Notre Dame Likely Rotation (First 6 Games Statistics)
*G – 6’3” SR Ben Hansbrough (15.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.8 RPG, 123.7 OR, 21% Poss, 20% Shot, 21% TO, 5.1 FTR, 60% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G/F – 6’8” SR Scott Martin (9.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 100.5 OR, 19% Poss, 19% Shot, 19% TO, 6.0 FTR, 43% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Tim Abromaitis (17.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 125.3 OR, 22% Poss, 25% Shot, 8% TO, 6.0 FTR, 54% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Carleton Scott (10.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.7 APG, 112.7 OR, 19% Poss, 23% Shot, 19% TO, 2.3 FTR, 51% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR Tyrone Nash (12.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.7 BPG, 126.8 OR, 22% Poss, 16% Shot, 14% TO, 13.6 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’2” FR Eric Atkins (7.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.3 RPG, 129.5 OR, 13% Poss, 14% Shot, 17% TO, 2.4 FTR, 42% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” SO Jack Cooley (6.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 127.9 OR, 21% Poss, 21% Shot, 14% TO, 5.0 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’6” SO Joey Brooks (2.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 92.7 OR, 17% Poss, 17% Shot, 26% TO, 4.0 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)
PLAYER TRAITS (with revisions from suggestions)
THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Jeff Jordan (<28%)
Carleton Scott = 26%
Scott Martin = 20%
Joey Brooks = 13%
Trevon Hughes (35-38%)
None
Clayton Hanson (+38%)
Ben Hansbrough = 55%
Eric Atkins = 50%
TWO-POINT SHOOTING
Kevin Gullikson (<43%)
Ben Hansbrough = 41%
Marcus Landry (50-54%)
Eric Atkins = 53%
Tim Abromaitis = 50%
Mike Wilkinson (+54%)
Joey Brooks = 71%
Carleton Scott = 65%
Jack Cooley = 63%
Scott Martin = 55%
FREE THROW SHOOTING
Alando Tucker (<65%)
Joey Brooks = 50%
Kam Taylor (75-82%)
Tim Abromaitis = 81%
Tyrone Nash = 76%
Eric Atkins = 75%
Jason Bohannon (+82%)
Carleton Scott = 83%
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)
Tim Abromaitis = 18%
Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)
Carleton Scott = 25%
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Brian Butch (9-12%)
Tyrone Nash = 11%
Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)
Jack Cooley = 20%
STEALING
Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)
Joey Brooks = 3.6%
Mike Kelley (+4.4%)
None
BLOCKING
Brian Butch (3-7%)
Carleton Scott = 6%
Jack Cooley = 6%
Greg Stiemsma (+7%)
None
ASSISTS
Devin Harris (20-25%)
Eric Atkins = 23%
Tyrone Nash = 20%
Jordan Taylor (25-30%)
Ben Hansbrough = 27%
Demetri McCamey (+30%)
None
POSSESSION USAGE
Jason Chappell (<15%)
Eric Atkins = 13%
Brian Butch (24-28%)
None
Alando Tucker (+28%)
None
This still isn’t set in stone… if you think I should use different players (Badgers or other Big Ten), feel free to suggest them so I don’t have Butch, Kelley, Tucker, and Hughes multiple times. For those questioning, all of the players had numbers in their range for either their entire career or their upperclassmen seasons. For example, Mike Kelley averaged a 4.5% steal rate with a high of 5.9 his junior year and Trevon Hughes shot 36% from three for his career with a high of almost 40% his senior year.
What Notre Dame is really good at:
1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 3 turnovers per 19 possessions, which is good for 15th in the nation.
2. Shooting. They have shot 51.6% (84th) from inside the arc so far this season, and 35.7% (112th) from the arc, and 74.1% from the line (46th).
3. Contesting shots. They have surrendered a measly 41.1% inside the arc (45th), 30.1% from the arc (100th), and 64.6% from the line (103rd).
4. Keeping the opponent off the charity stripe and getting there themselves. Their opponents attempt about 2 FTAs per 9 FGAs (32nd) and they get there 6 times for every 11 FGAs (19th).
5. Rebounding. They are 51st in offensive rebounding (38.4%) and 9th in defensive (76.5%).
What Notre Dame is really bad at:
1. Forcing turnovers. They have forced only about 2 turnovers per 11 possessions, good for 299th in the nation.
Relative Efficiency:
When Notre Dame has the ball: They have scored a white hot 1.21 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.88 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up a great 0.88 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.20 this season.
Pace: Notre Dame has played at 71 possessions per game to UW’s 61.
My expectations:
1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers ruin the Irish's sparkling interior defensive stats.
2. The Badgers knock down less than 3 threes. Come on reverse psychology.
3. Badgers grab more than 36% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end. Let it ride against a great rebounding team.
4. The Badgers hold Abromaitis to less than 12 points. We’re got the defenders at the 3 spot to slow this guy.
Badgers eat their Lucky Charms, downing ND 74-68 in 66 possessions.
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