Iowa Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: Does it ever get old beating the crap out of Michigan State? I'm gonna go with no. Although I was disappointed that Izzo stayed in his chair for the last 7 minutes or so minutes of the first half and all of the second. I didn't get my money's worth in yelling at him. But I did get in a "Get that midget off the court" and a "Izzo, why don't you go shoot some free throws". It'll have to do until next year. Up next is Iowa in Iowa City. They are 10-13 and 3-8 in the Big Ten, riding their first winning streak since the week before their first semester finals, as they beat MSU by 20 at home last Wednesday and then took down Indiana by 1 in Bloomington on Saturday. As you may notice, I have retooled the player bad/average/great colors. It was readjusted to Big Ten averages, hence an offensive rating of 118 isn't considered great anymore because average is 108.7 and a 16% turnover rate isn't considered great anymore because the Big Ten average is 17.5%.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 65-57 Badger victory in 59 possessions, with an 18% chance of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts 7-point Badger victory.


Be Careful What You Wish For:
Tom Davis = 13 seasons with a 0.658 winning percentage, 0.543 in the Big Ten; nine NCAA Tournament appearances with a 13-9 record, two Sweet 16s, and one Elite 8; two NIT appearances; 24 All-Big Ten selections
After a Sweet 16 appearance, Iowa did not renew his contract because they wanted more success from the program

Steve Alford = 8 seasons with a 0.589 winning percentage, 0.477 in the Big Ten; three NCAA Tournament appearances with a 1-3 record; three NIT appearances; 14 All-Big Ten selections
After a 4th place finish in the Big Ten and a 17-14 record, Iowa chased him out of Iowa City because they wanted more success from the program

Since = 3.5 seasons with a 0.407 winning percentage, 0.277 in the Big Ten; no postseason appearances; 1 All-Big Ten selection


Iowa Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Bryce Cartwright	33.3	11.5	2.0	6.6	1.1	0.0	93.2	26.5	25.0	72.0%	44.1%	26.1%	18.4%	2.00	1.0	6.7	41.6	0.0	1.9	1.75
* G	6'5"	Matt Gatens	35.5	14.1	1.8	1.6	1.5	0.3	114.4	18.5	14.2	93.5%	40.7%	43.3%	50.4%	2.61	1.3	5.3	9.4	0.8	2.6	1.44
* G	6'5"	Eric May	23.5	7.0	2.0	0.6	0.7	0.4	92.0	17.5	17.8	63.2%	42.5%	47.1%	29.8%	3.33	3.7	7.1	4.9	1.9	1.8	2.38
* F	6'7"	Jarryd Cole	23.7	6.4	4.8	0.6	0.8	0.5	112.7	13.7	18.6	63.2%	60.4%	-	0.0%	3.96	8.2	17.9	5.2	2.1	2.0	5.82
* F	6'7"	Melsahn Basabe	25.4	13.1	7.5	0.4	0.5	1.4	113.0	25.7	21.1	82.4%	57.3%	-	0.0%	5.73	15.4	22.7	3.2	6.0	1.0	3.87
G/F	6'5"	Roy Devyn Marble	19.5	5.7	2.0	1.5	0.8	0.1	87.2	20.6	16.4	33.3%	38.5%	33.3%	25.7%	2.14	3.5	9.6	15.9	0.5	2.5	2.98
F	6'7"	Zach McCabe	19.0	3.8	2.5	0.9	0.5	0.1	72.5	17.4	31.6	87.5%	43.5%	19.2%	53.1%	1.63	3.6	13.6	8.7	0.5	1.7	3.64
F	6'9"	Andrew Brommer	13.2	3.5	2.4	0.8	0.1	0.4	104.8	15.9	28.9	40.0%	68.0%	-	0.0%	4.00	11.4	11.6	12.3	3.1	0.4	6.35
F	6'9"	Devon Archie	7.6	1.0	2.4	0.4	0.2	0.5	87.4	11.9	33.3	0.0%	62.5%	-	0.0%	5.00	11.7	29.0	9.5	7.4	1.5	4.74

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	37.6	20.7	4.6	4.4	0.8	0.0	132.2	29.3	7.0	87.1%	50.0%	41.5%	39.8%	5.26	3.0	14.4	29.9	0.0	1.5	2.98
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	24.6	4.1	3.3	2.5	0.4	0.0	134.1	11.5	12.5	62.5%	63.2%	33.3%	38.7%	2.58	5.1	13.9	20.7	0.0	1.1	3.41
* F/G	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	28.1	4.4	2.1	1.5	0.4	0.1	137.6	9.1	8.3	100.0%	50.0%	35.7%	93.3%	4.00	3.5	7.1	10.3	0.4	1.0	2.14
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	34.7	18.9	6.7	1.4	0.4	0.5	111.5	31.4	12.4	92.7%	49.5%	37.5%	27.2%	2.79	5.7	21.7	11.2	1.7	0.8	2.31
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	30.8	11.9	4.9	0.6	0.7	1.3	140.4	17.1	10.8	89.5%	44.4%	57.8%	62.5%	2.64	7.8	14.8	4.5	5.1	1.6	3.64
F	6'6"	Mike Bruesewitz	17.5	2.9	1.7	0.7	0.5	0.2	105.5	13.8	8.8	80.0%	50.0%	18.8%	50.0%	1.56	8.9	4.8	8.1	1.3	2.0	2.74
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	9.6	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	52.8	15.7	11.7	100.0%	22.2%	0.0%	50.0%	1.11	0.0	9.2	7.3	0.0	0.9	5.19
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	7.6	1.3	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.7	88.4	16.7	6.2	50.0%	41.7%	0.0%	25.0%	2.50	8.3	16.7	6.0	10.6	0.0	7.06
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	7.3	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.1	85.5	17.5	27.7	100.0%	50.0%	-	0.0%	1.25	1.9	13.6	3.0	1.6	0.9	6.58

Iowa Big Ten Team Stats:

Iowa	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	100.3 (#11)	65.8	22.4 (#11)	33.2 (#3)	30.8 (#9)	35.8 (#8)	49.0 (#7)	70.5 (#7)	7.6 (#8)	10.4 (#11)
Defense	111.6 (#8)	65.8	21.8 (#2)	62.8 (#11)	27.2 (#2)	39.1 (#6)	54.1 (#9)	77.1 (#10)	6.4 (#6)	9.5 (#1)

Wisconsin Big Ten Team Stats:

Wisconsin	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	119.5 (#1)	56.8	10.9 (#1)	27.4 (#9)	33.1 (#6)	38.6 (#5)	48.6 (#8)	86.9 (#1)	4.1 (#1)	5.6 (#1)
Defense	103.2 (#3)	56.8	15.8 (#8)	71.8 (#2)	37.0 (#8)	31.9 (#2)	47.8 (#4)	76.6 (#7)	5.9 (#7)	6.2 (#10)

Big Ten Aerial:

The grid axes are set at the Big Ten average PPP. As you can see, all of the teams are either good offense, good defense teams or bad offense, bad defense teams. My circle of mediocrity was supposed to just be a joke, but it actually holds pretty true. All of the 5-6 and 5-5 teams are on or inside the circle, but Indiana and Northwestern are crashing the party as well. Regardless, it really exemplifies how OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin are running away with the conference by beating up on everyone else. And while I'm sure most of us knew MSU wasn't worthy of their #2 ranking in the preseason, who would have predicted them being this bad? Hell, Ken Pomeroy predicts Wisconsin having a better chance of winning at Iowa than MSU has at beating Iowa in East Lansing. He has them most likely finishing 16-14 and 8-10 in the Big Ten.


My Expectations:

1. Wisconsin turns the ball over less than 11% of the time. Yes, this is their average, but Iowa forces 22% on average.

2. Wisconsin grabs more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on offense. Iowa has a tiny, tiny frontcourt and I think Bo let's Keaton, Jon, Mike, Jared, and Josh try to take advantage.

3. The Badgers score more than 25 points in the paint. Again... small frontcourt, Jon, Keaton, Jared, etc.


My Prediction: The Badgers win convincingly, 71-55 in 58 possessions.