Michigan State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: This is quite the doubleheader for Wisconsin sports fans on Sunday... maybe the best ever with the Badgers taking on arch rival Michigan State and the Packers playing in the Super Bowl. Despite my best efforts in protest, my two buddies are going to the game tomorrow in Packers jerseys. I don't think it reflects well when the Badgers are playing a team that will be wearing green. Alas, the Badgers are facing a Michigan State squad that has been reeling since they beat the Badgers in East Lansing. They have gone 2-4 in the weeks following, dropping their record to 13-9 and 5-5 in the Big Ten, with their last game being a 20-point blowout loss at conference doormat Iowa. The team showed absolutely no heart or effort in the game which makes begs the question, will Michigan State make the tournament? At this point, I would say no. It should be interesting to see what kind of team shows up at the Herb Garden... a rapid, wounded animal or one that's dead on arrival.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-55 Badger victory in 57 possessions, with a 12% of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 10-point Badger victory.


Possible Reasons for MSU's Fall from Grace:
1. Departure of Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen... No, MSU fans hated Morgan and Allen was replaced with Appling
2. Dismissal of Korie Lucious... No, they were playing like #2 before he was ditched, and I don't mean #2 in the nation (pun credited to Gary Parrish)
3.Kalin Lucas Not Recoving to Pre-Injury Form... No, his numbers are roughly the same as the previous two seasons
4. Izzo Not Whining Enough to the Refs... No, he's in top form this season
5. Not Practicing in Football Pads Anymore... No, Draymond Green still excels at pushing other players in the back to get a rebound

They must just suck then.


Michigan State Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Kalin Lucas	33.8	16.5	2.1	3.7	0.9	0.2	105.6	27.9	14.9	86.0%	42.2%	36.4%	23.2%	3.03	1.7	6.2	27.3	0.6	1.7
* G	6'1"	Keith Appling	24.7	5.2	3.1	1.3	0.6	0.9	93.5	12.4	30.1	100.0%	42.9%	36.4%	70.2%	0.85	3.3	11.0	9.3	3.7	1.4
* G	6'5"	Durrell Summers	31.3	11.9	4.0	0.5	0.7	0.2	97.4	20.7	14.8	72.7%	39.5%	33.8%	61.3%	1.98	3.3	13.0	3.6	0.7	1.4
* F	6'6"	Draymond Green	33.5	14.8	8.2	4.2	1.8	1.2	111.1	26.2	16.7	72.2%	48.3%	37.5%	26.4%	2.98	10.0	20.7	30.7	4.1	3.4
* F	6'8"	Delvon Roe	27.6	7.0	6.1	1.5	1.2	1.4	119.7	14.6	12.6	58.1%	54.2%	-	0.0%	6.46	12.1	15.2	11.3	5.8	2.7
C	6'9"	Derrick Nix	9.3	4.7	2.8	0.4	0.1	0.2	116.2	26.0	17.6	57.1%	62.5%	-	0.0%	8.75	19.2	17.1	12.1	2.7	0.7
G	6'5"	Austin Thornton	8.7	0.6	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.8	63.0	11.0	26.6	66.7%	28.6%	0.0%	41.7%	7.41	7.9	22.6	6.2	0.0	2.2
C	6'10"	Adreian Payne	6.9	1.7	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.5	98.0	14.9	25.0	50.0%	58.3%	-	0.0%	5.00	11.7	13.3	0.0	8.3	1.8
C	6'10"	Garrick Sherman	6.3	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.3	73.4	9.1	55.5	75.0%	66.7%	-	0.0%	13.33	1.8	16.6	8.8	5.4	0.0
G	6'4"	Mike Kebler	5.4	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.1	60.4	7.1	33.3	-	20.0%	-	0.0%	0.00	2.1	7.2	10.0	2.1	0.0

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	37.9	19.7	5.0	4.8	0.9	0.0	127.6	28.5	7.2	86.7%	47.9%	38.8%	40.8%	5.00	3.1	15.3	27.9	0.0	1.6
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	23.7	4.0	3.4	2.8	0.4	0.0	129.4	12.6	13.1	62.5%	61.1%	27.3%	37.9%	2.76	5.7	14.6	24.0	0.0	1.3
* G/F	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	28.4	3.9	2.1	1.6	0.4	0.1	126.8	8.6	9.6	100.0%	50.0%	33.3%	93.1%	2.07	2.6	7.7	10.6	0.4	1.1
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	35.2	18.8	6.8	1.4	0.3	0.6	112.2	30.5	11.0	91.9%	49.5%	36.1%	27.1%	2.78	5.9	20.9	11.3	1.8	0.6
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	31	12.0	5.3	0.7	0.7	1.4	138.1	17.5	8.6	88.2%	44.4%	54.8%	60.9%	2.46	8.2	15.7	5.0	5.6	1.5
F	6'6"	Mike Breusewitz	17.8	3.2	1.4	0.7	0.6	0.2	102.9	14.6	9.0	80.0%	50.0%	18.8%	50.0%	1.56	8.4	2.6	7.7	1.5	2.2
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	9.4	2.8	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	47.2	16.2	13.3	100.0%	22.2%	0.0%	43.8%	1.25	0.0	6.3	8.7	0.0	1.0
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	7.8	1.5	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.8	92.5	17.3	6.6	50.0%	45.5%	0.0%	21.4%	2.67	8.8	17.9	6.8	11.7	0.0
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	7	1.8	0.8	0.1	1.1	0.1	82.4	18.0	31.2	-	53.3%	-	0.0%	0.00	2.1	13.4	3.7	1.9	1.1
G	5'10"	Wquinton Smith	4.8	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	115.0	7.3	0.0	0.0%	33.3%	-	0.0%	3.33	4.6	0.0	13.2	0.0	0.0

Michigan State Big Ten Stats:

	Efficiency	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	102.9 (#10)	18 (#6)	35.9 (#2)	31.2 (#6)	32.7 (#9)	45.9 (#11)	69.3 (#8)	5.4 (#4)	8.1 (#6)
Defense	107.1 (#5)	17.7 (#5)	71.2 (#3)	34.5 (#7)	40.8 (#9)	48.6 (#7)	69.6 (#4)	9.9 (#2)	9.6 (#2)

Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:

	Efficiency	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	116.4 (#1)	10.5 (#1)	27.5 (#10)	30.3 (#7)	36.4 (#7)	48.1 (#8)	85.2 (#1)	4.5 (#1)	5.7 (#1)
Defense	103.3 (#3)	16.2 (#8)	71.3 (#2)	37.2 (#8)	33.1 (#3)	47.2 (#4)	76.1 (#7)	6.6 (#5)	6.4 (#10)

Pace: The Badgers have averaged 57 possessions per game in conference play and Michigan State has averaged 65.


My Expectations:

1. Draymond Green scores less than 11 points. With his new found confidence, Ryan assists Keaton in shutting down Draymond.

2. The Badgers hit more than 38% of their threes. With the home environment and the quality of deep looks MSU gave up last time, the Badgers will make it rain from beyond the arc.

3. The Badgers grab make than 72% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. MSU fans will call it home cooking from the money hidden in the 3rd trash canister to the left of Gate A, I call it actually blowing the whistle when an over the back occurs.


My Prediction: The Badgers make Tom Izzo curl up in a ball on the floor of his hotel shower crying his eyes out like Tobias, with a 73-56 victory in 60 possessions.