Ohio State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: Well, the Badgers survived the trap game at Iowa that I was uncharacteristically wrong about. I predicted a blowout of sorts. But I’ll fall back on asserting that it would have been a blowout if Wisconsin actually made some of the wide open shots Iowa was giving up left and right in the first half. So now the Badgers will take on the Buckeyes of Ohio State, a team that I would love to hate, but I generally can’t find any reasons why. Wisconsin has had a fair amount of success against them, Thad Matta doesn’t seem to be a bad or annoying person, and former walk-on Mark Titus’ Club Trillion blog and general antics certainly helped. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes enter the game as the only remaining undefeated team in Division 1, sitting with a record of 24-0, 11-0 in the Big Ten. But like the Badgers on Wednesday night, Ohio State has had struggles with Big Ten foes. They had close calls with a 5-point vitctory at Iowa, 3-point victory at home against Minnesota, 4-point victory at Michigan, 1-point victory at Northwestern, 3-point victory at home against Penn State, and a 5-point victory at Illinois. Somehow in the middle of all those grind-it-out wins was a 23-point drubbing of Purdue. We’ll see what happens Saturday afternoon.


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 61-60 Badger loss, with a 49% chance of upset. In other words, his formulas suggest flipping a coin.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 0.75-point Ohio State victory. Keep in mind that home court only gives an extra 3.91 points to the Badgers, or any other team, in his calculations. Again, flip a coin.


Ohio State Idol:
Aaron Craft, Jared Sullinger, and Jon Diebler
Steven: Dream On! Dream On! Dream Ooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn... about going to Los Angeles for the next round.
Jennifer: Hello, my name is Hennifer Lopez and I eat tacos and burritos.
Randy: Yo dog, you should dump this Craft kid. He's dragging you down. I love the enthusiasm from you though, Jared. JLo, why are you the hand of some fat kid?

Dallas Lauderdale
Steven: Were your parents in Texas 9 months before you were born? Cuz your name is Dallas. They probably named you after the city they bumped uglies in.
Jennifer: Taco, taco.
Randy: Yo, that was way better than the last group that was in here, but I can't tell if it's because you're decent or they were that bad. I'm not sure if you're marketable though. You look to be about 45, and the kids these days aren't going to buy a 45-year old's album.


Ohio State Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'5"	William Buford	33.1	13.8	2.9	2.5	0.5	0.4	117.3	20.7	15.9	84.6%	40.0%	53.1%	43.0%	2.28	2.5	9.0	15.8	1.2	1.0	3.08
* G	6'6"	Jon Diebler	38.4	10.0	2.5	2.5	1.1	0.1	136.1	11.2	12.0	78.6%	42.9%	47.5%	81.3%	1.87	1.5	6.8	12.1	0.2	1.8	1.14
* G/F	6'5"	David Lighty	32.9	12.0	3.7	3.1	1.4	0.6	110.4	21.9	18.4	66.7%	50.0%	37.5%	34.0%	5.43	5.8	9.0	18.4	2.1	2.6	2.98
* F	6'8"	Dallas Lauderdale	14.5	3.8	2.3	0.3	0.1	1.0	112.7	12.7	21.8	16.7%	80.0%	-	0.0%	4.80	8.3	12.4	3.7	7.8	0.3	6.04
* F	6'9"	Jared Sullinger	35.6	18.5	10.4	1.8	0.8	0.5	118.2	27.0	11.3	65.5%	55.8%	20.0%	3.7%	6.49	11.7	26.5	11.5	1.7	1.4	2.86
G	6'2"	Aaron Craft	30.2	8.5	2.7	4.4	1.5	0.1	101.8	19.8	30.7	69.7%	51.5%	44.4%	42.9%	5.24	0.7	11.1	26.7	0.3	3.2	4.70
F	6'6"	Deshaun Thomas	12.1	5.3	2.6	0.3	0.3	0.2	97.5	27.6	17.2	75.0%	48.8%	21.4%	25.5%	2.18	14.9	13.8	4.9	1.7	1.4	3.61

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	38.2	20.3	4.5	4.7	0.7	0.0	128.9	29.1	7.5	86.3%	47.8%	40.7%	39.1%	4.83	2.9	13.7	31.6	0.0	1.3	2.99
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	25.6	3.9	3.6	2.6	0.4	0.0	133.3	11.1	11.3	62.5%	61.9%	28.6%	40.0%	2.29	5.8	13.9	20.8	0.0	1.0	3.3
* F/G	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	28.6	4.7	2.3	1.5	0.5	0.1	138.9	9.4	7.1	100.0%	33.3%	36.4%	91.7%	3.89	4.7	6.2	9.9	0.3	1.3	2.03
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	35.4	18.9	7.5	1.6	0.5	0.5	109.3	31.6	13.2	93.0%	49.2%	35.6%	26.9%	2.57	6.3	23.1	12.9	1.7	0.9	2.16
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	31.8	11.7	4.8	0.5	0.6	1.4	134.8	16.8	9.6	89.5%	50.0%	52.8%	62.4%	2.24	7.3	13.6	3.9	4.9	1.4	3.31
F	6'6"	Mike Bruesewitz	16.7	2.8	1.7	0.7	0.5	0.2	105.2	13.9	8.8	80.0%	52.9%	17.6%	50.0%	1.47	8.8	5.3	8.9	1.2	1.9	2.83
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	8.8	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	49.4	16.2	11.1	100.0%	22.2%	0.0%	52.6%	1.05	0.0	8.8	7.1	0.0	0.9	5.06
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	7.6	1.3	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.7	88.4	16.7	6.2	50.0%	41.7%	0.0%	25.0%	2.50	8.3	16.7	6.0	10.6	0.0	7.06
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	7.6	1.8	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.2	90.7	16.9	25.0	100.0%	47.4%	-	0.0%	1.05	3.2	13.3	5.3	2.7	0.8	6.19

Ohio State Big Ten Stats:

Ohio State	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	114.6 (#2)	63.0	17.6 (#6)	32.7 (#4)	42.0 (#2)	43.8 (#1)	51.6 (#3)	66.7 (#11)	6.2 (#5)	6.9 (#4)
Defense	99.3 (#1)	63.0	21.9 (#1)	69.5 (#7)	23.2 (#1)	32.7 (#3)	50.6 (#8)	77.0 (#7)	5.5 (#8)	9.1 (#3)

Wisconsin Big Ten Stats:

Wisconsin	Efficiency	Pace	TO %	Reb %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	117.2 (#1)	56.8	11.1 (#1)	28.5 (#9)	30.4 (#7)	37.3 (#5)	47.7 (#9)	86.9 (#1)	4.3 (#1)	5.7 (#1)
Defense	102.1 (#3)	56.8	15.8 (#8)	71.9 (#1)	34.5 (#7)	31.0 (#2)	47.4 (#4)	77.2 (#8)	6.0 (#7)	6.0 (#11)

Big Ten Aerial:

The Big Ten has had a very defensive-oriented past few days, as the equilibrium efficiency has dropped from 108.7 to 108.0. The axes have been moved accordingly. Even with the Badgers' rough day shooting, they still have a commanding lead in offensive efficiency and improved on defensive, lowering by 1 point. If things hold true, we may only see Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, and Minnesota in the big dance. Not the MSU missing it is a disappointment. Quite the contrary.


My Expectations:
1. Keaton has a Purdue game-like performance, draining more than 3 threes. I think OSU's concern for Jordan and Jon combined with their bigs being uncomfortable on the perimeter makes for a great night for Keaton.

2. The Badgers grab more than 77% of the defensive rebounding opportunities. No one that plays more than 15 minutes a game for the Buckeyes other than Sullinger grabs a lot of boards, especially on the offensive end.

3. Jared Sullinger scores less than 20 points or has an efficiency below 1.00 PPP if he has +20. The Badgers formally welcome the "diaper dandy" to the Kohl Center... where winning streaks go to die.

My Prediction: The Badgers ruin another Buckeye team's hope for a perfect season, willing their way to a 65-63 win in 55 possessions.