Monday, February 7, 2011

MSU Box Score Observations 2.0

Opening Comments: Wisconsin won what turned out to be a laugher 82-56. The question going into the game was which MSU team would show up – the wounded animal cornered and fighting for its life or the dispirited team that Coach Izzo has lost touch with. Apparently it was the later.

[Note: i am taking a chance and doing this game early. I usually wait a few hours in case someone changes the box score, which seems to happen. But, I want to watch the Packers with this in the bank.]

UW scored their 57th point at 14:29 left in the second half, less than 5 minutes into the second half. That was important because UW could have quit scoring at that point and still won the game.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW had our best shooting day of the year from the floor (see eFG% section), got to the line often, and were deadly when there to further pee in Coach Izzo’s cornflakes, as if he has not had enough of that lately.

Pace: The game had 55 possessions. UW has averaged 58 for the year, 57 in conference.

Efficiency: Was it good offense or good defense? UW played exceptional offense and decent defense.

MSU scored 1.02 PPP. In many years that can win games. Heck, Indiana won one this year scoring .87 PPP against Illinois. MSU’s 1.02 PPP is close to UW’s 1.03 PPP we have given up in conference. Shetown has been tracking conference PPP and they are up this year. So, 1.02 is good defense this year in the B10, not great.

On offense, UW knocked their socks off. UW scored 1.49 PPP. That was our third best performance of the year (1.56 PPP against Northwestern and 1.50 PPP way back in mid November against Prairie View A&M). Yikes! The best any opponent has done against UW this year was 1.19 by Illinois at Illinois.

Shooting: Our shooting was fantastic, as one might expect when scoring 1.49 PPP.

eFG%: UW blew them away with our best performance of the year hitting 73% eFG%. Wow. We are at 50% in conference this year. (Note: eFG% is like a regular FG% except you get 1.5 for a three pointer).

MSU scored at 47%eFG%, about on par with our conference opponents 48% this year.

3 pt shooting: MSU was 3 of 14 for a poor 21%. UW was a stunning 11 of 17 for 65%, our best performance of the year. UW picked up 24 points outside the arc on Sparty.

2pt shooting: Inside the arc, MSU was a tough 17 of 32 for 53%. UW countered that with fewer shots, 22, but about the same percentage, 55%. We made 12. UW outscored MSU in the paint 16 to 14. MSU got back 10 points from the two point range. UW outscored MSU by 14 from the floor.

1pt shooting: MSU was a very good 13 of 16 from the line for 81%. UW was lights out hitting 25 of 26 for 96%. Double yikes! That gave UW another 12 point advantage from the line.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 294 Opponent Attempts: 347 Difference: -53

We gained 9 in this game. I doubt we can regain this stat this year. But, I am optimistic about the Trevor Mbakwe Challenge.

Trevor Mbakwe Challenge.

Trevor has missed 60 free throws and UW has missed 61. UW shot 26 today and Trevor 3. Both UW and Trevor missed one.

While I do admire Trevor’s ability to get to the line, his ability to miss is also impressive. UW has shot 355 free throws. Trevor has shot 144. Yet, UW has only missed one more free throw on the year.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 40% 16%

Mid Range 10% 36%

Paint 20% 25%

FT Line 30% 23%

The points from deep were excellent, particularly since we used on 17 shots from deep.

Rebounding: UW outrebounded MSU 24-18 in raw rebounds. But, this game shows why raw rebounding is a misleading stat. In this one, rebounding was more-or-less a draw. That by itself is an accomplishment of sorts for UW, since MSU is known for their rebounding prowess.

UW Defensive end: When MSU shot, there were 26 rebounding opportunities and MSU got 6, or 23%. That is good defensive rebounding by UW. The national average is 33% offensive rebounds. UW usually cedes about 25%.

UW Offensive End: UW shot so well there were few rebounds to be had. There were only 16 offensive rebounding opportunities and UW got 4 or 25%. MSU could have gotten all of them and it would not have mattered much. UW got 9 second chance points to MSU’s 4.

Turnovers: MSU actually won this stat. MSU had 7 to UW’s 8. MSU had 13% TO’s to UW’s 15%. Both good numbers, but we expect good turnover numbers by UW and not MSU. So, I give MSU a victory of sorts on turnovers. UW did a better job of capitalizing on turnovers. UW scored 10 to MSU’s 5.

Opportunity Index: UW lost the OI by 3. MSU got 2 more offensive rebounds and one fewer turnover. But, UW outscored MSU by 5 off turnovers and 5 more on second chance points.

Fouls: MSU was whistled for 20 and UW 16. In conference games, we have been averaging 16 and our opponents 17.

Playing time: Bo emptied his bench and played 13 players. Eight played ten or more minutes. Evans, Bruesewitz and Wilson all hit double figures.

Izzo was searching for the right combination and played 9 ten or more minutes. Nix, a starter, only played 7.

Notable Performances: This could take awhile to do it justice.

Taylor had a fantastic offensive game. He scored 30 on 13 FGA’s and 9-10 from the line (his lone miss causing us to not catch Trevor Mbakwe in the challenge). He had 6 assists and one lonely turnover. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people. Mrs. Turomon is holding her head high knowing she made a good choice for favorite players.

My favorite player, Jon Leuer, score 20 on 14 FGA’s, 4-4 from the line. He added 6 rebounds. He had 4 nasty turnovers, which do not seem like a big thing in a 26 point blowout.

Keaton was his usual efficient self – maybe more so. He scored 11 on 3-3 shooting (this must be a mistake because I remember him missing a shot wide left – unless they called that a turnover). Keaton, I salute you.

Jarmusz had another highly efficient game – which is what we expect out of Tim. He scored 9 on 1-1 shooting (a trey), made 6-6 from the line, no turnovers, chipped in the team’s only two offensive rebounds, and basically shut down Summers. My people have a fondness in their hearts for your style of play and will be discussing your exploits for years to come. As said in the past, TJ may do the best job in Badger history at exploiting his strengths and avoiding weaknesses – an admirable trait.

Gasser joined the efficiency parade scoring 5 on two shots, one three. He chipped in two boards as well.

For MSU, Lucas came to play scoring 20 on 14 shots. Appling got 6 on three shots, but will have to deal with severe burn marks from trying to guard Taylor.

Summers scored 7, but needed 12 shots to do it. Jarmusz gets most of the credit defending Summers, if my memory serves me correctly.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Draymond Green scores less than 11 points. With his new found confidence, Ryan assists Keaton in shutting down Draymond. Miss. Green got 13. But, he needed 10 shots and 6 free throws to get there. He also contributed two turnovers – not a winning stat line.

2. The Badgers hit more than 38% of their threes. With the home environment and the quality of deep looks MSU gave up last time, the Badgers will make it rain from beyond the arc. Major Hit. UW hit a stunning 65%.

3. The Badgers grab make than 72% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. MSU fans will call it home cooking from the money hidden in the 3rd trash canister to the left of Gate A, I call it actually blowing the whistle when an over the back occurs. Hit. UW got 77%.

My Prediction: The Badgers make Tom Izzo curl up in a ball on the floor of his hotel shower crying his eyes out like Tobias, with a 73-56 victory in 60 possessions. Hit. UW won 82 to 56 in 55 possessions. Nice job predicting MSU’s score. We may never know what Coach Izzo does in his hotel room.

Closing Thoughts: That was a great win. I know MSU has been reeling, but one never knows what will happen and UW successfully kicked them when they were down. It will be interesting to see if MSU can right the ship or if they will sink below the waves and visit Davey Jones’ locker (NIT?).

This upcoming Iowa game will be interesting. They are coming off a rare road win at Indiana and have been playing well. This is a big chance for UW to get another road win under our belts before OSU comes to town. We will need a few to reach 11 or 12 conference wins. This is one we need to secure.

If UW plays boring basketball, what does that say about MSU and the other 17 teams we beat?

UW was ranked #2 in the nation in offense going into this game, per ken Pomeroy (Link). This game will only help that rating. We do indeed have a blue ribbon offense.

As always, point out those typos and errors.

Your thoughts?

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