NC State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: I don't think a home game could have come at a better time. The Badgers couldn't hit the broad side of the barn in Orlando, especially from deep. Tomorrow night they will face the Wolfpack of NC State. NC State used to be a lot like Wisconsin with Herb Sendek at the helm. But he was chased away to ASU because their fanbase seemingly values high tempo over success. In Sendek's final 3 seasons, they went 64-34 and had 3 tournament appearances. Sidney Lowe's tenure is starting year five, and has resulted in no tournament appearances and a 51-46 record the last 3 seasons. But they are signing 4- and 5-star recruits now, so I guess they can lose in style.


Forums: PackPride Sports



What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 12-point favorite.


Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-60 Badger victory in 61 possessions with a 20% chance of an upset.



NC State Likely Rotation (First 5 Games Statistics)

*G – 6’0” SR Javier Gonzalez (6.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 137.1 OR, 12% Poss, 12% Shot, 17% TO, 2.1 FTR, 79% of FGAs are 3PT)



*G – 6’4” FR Lorenzo Brown (12.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 104.0 OR, 22% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 4.1 FTR, 29% of FGAs are 3PT)



*F – 6’6” SO Scott Wood (11.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 APG, 123.4 OR, 15% Poss, 19% Shot, 13% TO, 2.1 FTR, 81% of FGAs are 3PT)



*F – 6’8” SO Richard Howell (9.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 122.3 OR, 24% Poss, 23% Shot, 12% TO, 5.9 FTR, 3% of FGAs are 3PT)



*F – 6’9” SO DeShawn Painter (7.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 107.4 OR, 19% Poss, 20% Shot, 12% TO, 5.9 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)



G – 5’11” FR Ryan Horrow (10.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 98.6 OR, 25% Poss, 28% Shot, 16% TO, 3.2 FTR, 24% of FGAs are 3PT)



F – 6’8” FR C.J. Leslie (9.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 84.6 OR, 27% Poss, 24% Shot, 21% TO, 7.9 FTR, 13% of FGAs are 3PT)



F – 6’5” JR C.J. Williams (4.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 131.5 OR, 12% Poss, 15% Shot, 6% TO, 2.4 FTR, 6% of FGAs are 3PT)



C – 7’1” SO Jordan Vandenburg (2.0 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 105.9 OR, 13% Poss, 9% Shot, 25% TO, 8.6 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)




PLAYER TRAITS


THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Lorenzo Brown = 21%

Ryan Horrow = 17%

Richard Howell = 0%

C.J. Leslie = 0%

C.J. Williams = 0%


Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

None


Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Scott Wood = 41%

Javier Gonzalez = 40%



TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Jordan Vandenburg = 43%


Marcus Landry (50-54%)

C.J. Leslie = 52%

Scott Wood = 50%


Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Javier Gonzalez = 100%

C.J. Williams = 63%

Richard Howell = 58%

Lorenzo Brown = 54%



FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Richard Howell = 63%

C.J. Leslie = 50%


Kam Taylor (75-82%)

Lorenzo Brown = 80%

C.J. Williams = 75%


Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Scott Wood = 89%

Ryan Horrow = 88%



DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Richard Howell = 18%

C.J. Leslie = 17%


Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

None



OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

DeShawn Painter = 11%


Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Richard Howell = 21%



STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Richard Howell = 4.0%

Javier Gonzalez = 3.2%

Lorenzo Brown = 3.1%

Scott Wood = 3.0%


Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None



BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

Carleton Scott = 6%

DeShawn Painter = 5%


Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

Jordan Vandenburg = 10%

C.J. Leslie = 8%



ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Javier Gonzalez = 24%


Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

Ryan Horrow = 29%

Lorenzo Brown = 25%


Demetri McCamey (+30%)

None



POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Scott Wood = 15%

Jordan Vandenburg = 13%

Javier Gonzalez = 12%

C.J. Williams = 12%


Brian Butch (24-28%)

C.J. Leslie = 27%

Ryan Horrow = 25%

Richard Howell = 24%


Alando Tucker (+28%)

None



What NC State is really good at:



1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 1 turnover per 6 possessions, which is good for 23rd in the nation.



2. Shooting and defending 2s. They have shot 51.2% (83rd) from inside the arc so far this season, and allowed 42.9% (71st).



3. Blocking shots. They block nearly one of every seven 2PT FGAs their opponents take, good for 32nd in the nation.



4. Keeping the opponent off the charity stripe and getting there themselves. Their opponents attempt about 4 FTAs per 13 FGAs (67th) and they get there 7 times for every 15 FGAs (61st).



5. Picking pockets. They steal the ball from their opponents once every 9 possessions (86th).





What NC State is really bad at:



1. Defensive rebounding. They only grab 60.4% of the defensive rebounding opportunities, which is 319th in the nation.



2. Shooting threes. They have 30.5% from beyond the arc, or 253rd and worse than the Badgers.



3. Defending free throws. Their opponents have shot 71.1% from the line, which is 249th in the nation.





Relative Efficiency:



When NC State has the ball: They have scored a great 1.09 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.90 this season.



When UW has the ball: They have given up an okay 0.97 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.16 this season.





Pace: NC State has played at 71 possessions per game to UW’s 60.





My expectations:



1. The Badgers re-establish their dominance on the offensive boards, grabbing at least 40%. The Badgers are good at them and NCSU is terrible at stopping them.



2. The bench, Gasser, and Bruesewitz score at least 40% of the team’s points. I think the friendly confines help the role players find their stroke again. FYI, they currently score 30.8% of the points.



3. The Badgers get their 3-point shooting ability back, and shoot better than 35%. The team shot 42% in the Kohl Center and 17% in Orlando. I think the Kohl Center shooting returns.


The Badgers take out their disappointment from Orlando on the Wolfpack, Cesar Milan-ing them 75-62 in 64 possessions.