UW-Green Bay Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: While we’re flying high off the defeat of Marquette on Saturday, we’ve got a quick turn around facing UW-Green Bay on Monday. This is the final game of the Wisconsin State Tournament with Wisconsin having a lock on at least a share of the title, and an outright championship with a win Monday night. This is the last game before a nine-day hiatus for finals. Since I too have finals and don’t really have a better way to announce, I’d like to take this opportunity to say that I am currently working on a pre-game analysis for the Rose Bowl. Unfortunately without a Ken Pom of sorts for college football, I’m doing all the work so it’s taking a while. But I hope to compare the match-ups of each teams’ units and at least minimize the effect that scheduling and style has on the team’s abilities if I’m not able to completely neutralize it.

Forums: UWGBPhoenix

What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 75-54 Badger victory in 59 possessions, with a 2% chance of upset.

Sagarin predicts the game as a 21-point Badger victory.

UW-Green Bay Likely Rotation

*G – 5’10” SR Rahmon Fletcher (17.0 PPG, 3.1 APG, 2.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 112.9 OR, 27% Poss, 29% Shot, 18% TO, 2.4 FTR, 22% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’2” JR Steve Baker (8.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 114.1 OR, 16% Poss, 15% Shot, 19% TO, 2.9 FTR, 25% of FGAs are 3PT)

*G – 6’3” SR Bryquis Perine (12.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 96.8 OR, 25% Poss, 20% Shot, 24% TO, 3.2 FTR, 20% of FGAs are 3PT)

*F – 6’6” FR Daniel Turner (6.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 96.2 OR, 20% Poss, 17% Shot, 19% TO, 6.3 FTR, 15% of FGAs are 3PT)

*C – 7’0” FR Alec Brown (6.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 93.7 OR, 21% Poss, 20% Shot, 19% TO, 4.7 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’0” SO Seth Evans (4.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.5 APG, 93.0 OR, 13% Poss, 12% Shot, 30% TO, 2.3 FTR, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’5” SO Troy Snyder (6.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 110.3 OR, 18% Poss, 20% Shot, 15% TO, 2.5 FTR, 24% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’8” SR Greg LeSage (2.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 106.6 OR, 12% Poss, 11% Shot, 18% TO, 5.2 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

F – 6’9” FR Clayton Heuer (1.8 PPG, 97.6 OR, 20% Poss, 24% Shot, 24% TO, 0.0 FTR, 61% of FGAs are 3PT)

PLAYER TRAITS

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Clayton Heuer = 18%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

Rahmon Fletcher = 37%

Bryquis Perine = 36%

Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Steve Baker = 41%

TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Daniel Turner = 38%

Alec Brown = 37%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)

Seth Evans = 54%

Troy Snyder = 54%

Rahmon Fletcher = 52%

Bryquis Perine = 50%

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Clayton Heuer = 86%

FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Daniel Turner = 52%

Troy Snyder = 46%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)

Seth Evans = 78%

Alec Brown = 76%

Jason Bohannon (+82%)

Rahmon Fletcher = 84%

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Troy Snyder = 18%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

None

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Greg LaSage = 10%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

Daniel Turner = 14%

Troy Snyder = 13%

STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Rahmon Fletcher = 3.8%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None

BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

Clayton Heuer = 4.4%

Troy Snyder = 3.2%

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

Alec Brown = 8.2%

ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Rahmon Fletcher = 24%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

None

Demetri McCamey (+30%)

None

POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

Steve Baker = 15%

Seth Evans = 13%

Greg LaSage = 12%

Brian Butch (24-28%)

Rahmon Fletcher = 27%

Bryquis Perine = 25%

Alando Tucker (+28%)

None

What UW-Green Bay is really good at:

1. Offensive Rebounding. They are 21st in offensive rebounding (39.6%).

3. Taking care of the ball. They turn the ball over six times every 31 possessions, 95th fewest in the nation.

3. Forcing turnovers. They force three turnovers every 13 possessions, or 85^th in the country.

4. Free throw shooting. They make 70.7% of their freebies, 105^th best in the nation.

What UW-Green Bay is really bad at:

1. Contesting shots. This season, their opponents have shot 44.6% (341^st) in the nation from 3, and 54.7% inside the arc (320^th).

2. Shooting inside the arc. This season, they have shot 43.4% inside the arc, which is 274^th in the nation.

3. Defensive Rebounding. They’ve only grabbed 65.4% of all the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, good for 232^nd in the nation.

4. Getting to the line and keeping opponents away from it. They only get one FTA per 3 FGAs (273^rd) but allow 5 FTAs per 9 FGAs for their opponents (334^th).

Relative Efficiency:

When UW-Green Bay has the ball: They have scored an above average 1.03 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.89 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up a bad 1.05 PPP this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.18 this season.

Pace: UW-Green Bay has played at 67 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers have an eFG% of better than 60%. Green Bay averages giving up 58.1% in this category.

2. Someone not named Jon, Jordan, or Keaton scores in double figures. It seems like it has been a while since this happened.

3. Badgers grab more than 40% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 80% of the opportunities on defense. Total domination on the boards coming.

The Badgers win big over the Phoenix, 81-52 in 60 possessions.