Coppin State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Here’s the final tune-up before the start of the Big Ten conference games. It was a long 10 days off, especially since I had 4 finals in the past 4 days, but thankfully it’s over. The opponent is Coppin State, who is 4-4 with victories over Maryland-BC, Lincoln-PA, Navy, and West Virginia Tech. They played UConn on Monday and lost 76-64. To be fair, Ken Pom stats aren’t big fans of UConn right now, ranking them 37^th overall, while Notre Dame is 36^th and Marquette is 42^nd.

What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 30-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 75-46 Badger victory in 59 possessions with a 0.3% chance of an upset.

Coppin State Likely Rotation (FYI, Red = Bad, Blue = Average, Green = Good):

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	5'11"	Tony Gallo	27.8	12.5	2.4	1.9	1.2	0.0	100.8	23.4	17.5	71.4%	35.3%	38.6%	56.4%	4.49	0.4	8.7	14.5	0.0	2.5
* G	6'4"	Michael Harper	31.9	15.8	3.8	1.4	1.8	0.4	105.6	23.1	15.5	81.3%	50.0%	38.6%	41.5%	1.51	1.6	10.9	10.6	1.2	3.1
* F	6'6"	Akeem Ellis	33.1	11.0	6.1	2.6	0.8	0.1	88.9	21.8	19.8	44.8%	45.0%	29.5%	52.4%	3.45	4.3	15.4	16.6	0.4	1.2
* F	6'6"	Antonio Williams	24.6	7.4	6.1	0.9	0.4	0.5	111.4	16.0	20.0	60.0%	62.5%	0.0%	7.0%	3.49	11.6	14.7	7.6	2.1	0.8
* F	6'8"	Branden Doughty	22.5	4.6	3.8	0.8	0.6	0.6	86.2	14.3	13.3	14.3%	41.9%	0.0%	2.3%	1.59	6.3	11.3	6.7	2.9	1.5
G	6'0"	Vince Goldsberry	24.8	7.8	2.3	3.8	1.2	0.3	102.2	20.7	20.3	72.0%	38.5%	30.0%	27.8%	6.94	3.4	6.5	30.4	1.4	2.6
C	6'8"	Ceslovas Kucinskas	16.4	3.5	3.6	0.1	0.8	0.4	97.8	13.1	23.3	69.2%	44.4%	33.3%	14.3%	6.19	8.7	14.7	1.4	2.4	2.6
F	6'5"	Michael Murray	13.6	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	73.5	18.7	19.7	50.0%	33.3%	25.0%	12.9%	0.65	7.6	9.0	4.3	1.1	1.8
G	6'4"	Collin Johnson	9.7	2.7	1.2	0.0	0.8	0.3	92.7	15.8	25.0	80.0%	33.3%	28.6%	70.0%	10.00	3.5	9.2	0.0	3.6	4.9
G	6'6"	Mike Simpson	7.5	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	63.9	25.7	40.7	33.3%	33.3%	36.4%	64.7%	3.53	3.4	10.7	10.1	0.0	2.8

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	33.8	15.1	4.0	4.6	0.7	0.1	127.3	23.8	11.2	86.7%	46.3%	39.5%	34.4%	3.60	3.3	11.1	28.3	0.2	1.4
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	26.7	7.0	4.1	2.2	0.5	0.1	117.7	16.3	16.6	88.0%	58.8%	18.5%	44.3%	4.10	7.2	11.6	14.3	0.3	1.3
* F	6'6"	Mike Breusewitz	23.5	6.0	3.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	123.6	13.1	21.5	77.8%	61.5%	45.0%	43.5%	1.96	8.2	9.9	7.2	0.4	0.7
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	32.2	19.9	7.5	2.3	0.8	1.9	129.6	27.9	11.4	79.2%	52.0%	50.0%	32.9%	3.16	7.0	21.6	17.1	6.6	1.6
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	22.7	8.0	4.8	1.0	0.8	1.6	126.8	17.6	16.6	100.0%	59.1%	43.5%	34.3%	0.90	12.4	13.6	9.0	8.0	2.4
G/F	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	19.5	3.0	2.1	1.1	0.7	0.0	123.3	9.3	6.6	60.0%	50.0%	28.6%	82.4%	1.47	4.6	8.5	9.6	0.0	2.4
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	14.1	4.2	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.5	86.6	26.2	22.9	76.2%	31.3%	0.0%	4.0%	4.20	9.6	19.6	15.6	3.5	0.4
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	8.6	4.0	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.1	104.1	26.0	36.6	66.7%	71.4%	44.4%	39.1%	2.61	6.4	14.2	17.3	1.4	0.8
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	7.2	2.1	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	111.2	18.4	16.6	50.0%	64.3%	0.0%	22.2%	1.11	9.5	18.7	15.5	0.0	1.0
G	5'10"	Wquinton Smith	7.9	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	90.7	13.1	21.4	40.0%	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	5.56	12.2	3.4	16.3	0.0	0.0
G	6'1"	Ben Brust	4.1	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.1	0.0	67.4	18.0	20.0	#DIV/0!	33.3%	16.7%	50.0%	0.00	6.7	13.1	0.0	0.0	1.8
G	6'4"	Brett Valentyn	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	128.6	12.5	28.5	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	44.4%	100.0%	0.00	0.0	9.9	5.0	0.0	0.0

What Coppin State is really good at:

1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 2 turnovers per 11 possessions, which is good for 59th in the nation.

What Coppin State is really bad at:

1. Rebounding. They have only grabbed 29.7% of the offensive rebounding opportunities (264^th) and 62.1% of the defensive rebounding opportunities (314^th).

2. Getting to the free throw line. They only attempt 7 free throws for every 25 field goal attempts, which is 323^rd in the nation.

3. Shooting. They shoot 31.9% from three (237^th), 42.9 inside the arc (284^th), and 64.1% from the line (276^th).

4. Pump-faking and blocking shots themselves. They get 3 of every 25 two-pointer they attempt blocked (297^th) and they only block 2 of every 29 two-pointers their opponents attempt (262^nd).

Relative Efficiency:

When Coppin State has the ball: They have scored a bad 0.96 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.90 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 1.00 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.

Pace: Coppin State has played at 71 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers dominate the paint.

2. A Non-Jordan, -Jon, and –Keaton score in double figures. With a week and a half off, someone explodes offensively.

3. Badgers grab more than 42% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 80% on the defensive. They suck at rebounding.

The Badgers down the Eagles after struggling a bit early, winning 78-60 in 65 possessions.