Thursday, December 23, 2010

Coppin State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Here’s the final tune-up before the start of the Big Ten conference games. It was a long 10 days off, especially since I had 4 finals in the past 4 days, but thankfully it’s over. The opponent is Coppin State, who is 4-4 with victories over Maryland-BC, Lincoln-PA, Navy, and West Virginia Tech. They played UConn on Monday and lost 76-64. To be fair, Ken Pom stats aren’t big fans of UConn right now, ranking them 37th overall, while Notre Dame is 36th and Marquette is 42nd.


What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 30-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 75-46 Badger victory in 59 possessions with a 0.3% chance of an upset.



Coppin State Likely Rotation (FYI, Red = Bad, Blue = Average, Green = Good):


Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl %
* G 5'11" Tony Gallo 27.8 12.5 2.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 100.8 23.4 17.5 71.4% 35.3% 38.6% 56.4% 4.49 0.4 8.7 14.5 0.0 2.5
* G 6'4" Michael Harper 31.9 15.8 3.8 1.4 1.8 0.4 105.6 23.1 15.5 81.3% 50.0% 38.6% 41.5% 1.51 1.6 10.9 10.6 1.2 3.1
* F 6'6" Akeem Ellis 33.1 11.0 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.1 88.9 21.8 19.8 44.8% 45.0% 29.5% 52.4% 3.45 4.3 15.4 16.6 0.4 1.2
* F 6'6" Antonio Williams 24.6 7.4 6.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 111.4 16.0 20.0 60.0% 62.5% 0.0% 7.0% 3.49 11.6 14.7 7.6 2.1 0.8
* F 6'8" Branden Doughty 22.5 4.6 3.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 86.2 14.3 13.3 14.3% 41.9% 0.0% 2.3% 1.59 6.3 11.3 6.7 2.9 1.5
G 6'0" Vince Goldsberry 24.8 7.8 2.3 3.8 1.2 0.3 102.2 20.7 20.3 72.0% 38.5% 30.0% 27.8% 6.94 3.4 6.5 30.4 1.4 2.6
C 6'8" Ceslovas Kucinskas 16.4 3.5 3.6 0.1 0.8 0.4 97.8 13.1 23.3 69.2% 44.4% 33.3% 14.3% 6.19 8.7 14.7 1.4 2.4 2.6
F 6'5" Michael Murray 13.6 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 73.5 18.7 19.7 50.0% 33.3% 25.0% 12.9% 0.65 7.6 9.0 4.3 1.1 1.8
G 6'4" Collin Johnson 9.7 2.7 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 92.7 15.8 25.0 80.0% 33.3% 28.6% 70.0% 10.00 3.5 9.2 0.0 3.6 4.9
G 6'6" Mike Simpson 7.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 63.9 25.7 40.7 33.3% 33.3% 36.4% 64.7% 3.53 3.4 10.7 10.1 0.0 2.8



Wisconsin Rotation:

Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl %
* G 6'1" Jordan Taylor 33.8 15.1 4.0 4.6 0.7 0.1 127.3 23.8 11.2 86.7% 46.3% 39.5% 34.4% 3.60 3.3 11.1 28.3 0.2 1.4
* G 6'3" Josh Gasser 26.7 7.0 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 117.7 16.3 16.6 88.0% 58.8% 18.5% 44.3% 4.10 7.2 11.6 14.3 0.3 1.3
* F 6'6" Mike Breusewitz 23.5 6.0 3.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 123.6 13.1 21.5 77.8% 61.5% 45.0% 43.5% 1.96 8.2 9.9 7.2 0.4 0.7
* F 6'10" Jon Leuer 32.2 19.9 7.5 2.3 0.8 1.9 129.6 27.9 11.4 79.2% 52.0% 50.0% 32.9% 3.16 7.0 21.6 17.1 6.6 1.6
* F 6'8" Keaton Nankivil 22.7 8.0 4.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 126.8 17.6 16.6 100.0% 59.1% 43.5% 34.3% 0.90 12.4 13.6 9.0 8.0 2.4
G/F 6'6" Tim Jarmusz 19.5 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 123.3 9.3 6.6 60.0% 50.0% 28.6% 82.4% 1.47 4.6 8.5 9.6 0.0 2.4
G/F 6'6" Ryan Evans 14.1 4.2 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.5 86.6 26.2 22.9 76.2% 31.3% 0.0% 4.0% 4.20 9.6 19.6 15.6 3.5 0.4
F/C 6'10" Jared Berggren 8.6 4.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 104.1 26.0 36.6 66.7% 71.4% 44.4% 39.1% 2.61 6.4 14.2 17.3 1.4 0.8
G/F 6'4" Rob Wilson 7.2 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 111.2 18.4 16.6 50.0% 64.3% 0.0% 22.2% 1.11 9.5 18.7 15.5 0.0 1.0
G 5'10" Wquinton Smith 7.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 90.7 13.1 21.4 40.0% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 5.56 12.2 3.4 16.3 0.0 0.0
G 6'1" Ben Brust 4.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 67.4 18.0 20.0 #DIV/0! 33.3% 16.7% 50.0% 0.00 6.7 13.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
G 6'4" Brett Valentyn 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 128.6 12.5 28.5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 44.4% 100.0% 0.00 0.0 9.9 5.0 0.0 0.0



What Coppin State is really good at:


1. Taking care of the ball. This season, they have averaged only 2 turnovers per 11 possessions, which is good for 59th in the nation.



What Coppin State is really bad at:


1. Rebounding. They have only grabbed 29.7% of the offensive rebounding opportunities (264th) and 62.1% of the defensive rebounding opportunities (314th).


2. Getting to the free throw line. They only attempt 7 free throws for every 25 field goal attempts, which is 323rd in the nation.


3. Shooting. They shoot 31.9% from three (237th), 42.9 inside the arc (284th), and 64.1% from the line (276th).


4. Pump-faking and blocking shots themselves. They get 3 of every 25 two-pointer they attempt blocked (297th) and they only block 2 of every 29 two-pointers their opponents attempt (262nd).



Relative Efficiency:


When Coppin State has the ball: They have scored a bad 0.96 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.90 this season.


When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 1.00 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.



Pace: Coppin State has played at 71 possessions per game to UW’s 60.



My expectations:


1. Badgers establish a strong post game with more than 30 points in the paint. The Badgers dominate the paint.


2. A Non-Jordan, -Jon, and –Keaton score in double figures. With a week and a half off, someone explodes offensively.


3. Badgers grab more than 42% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 80% on the defensive. They suck at rebounding.


The Badgers down the Eagles after struggling a bit early, winning 78-60 in 65 possessions.

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