Tuesday, December 7, 2010

UW-M Pre-Game Analysis


Opening Thoughts: Tomorrow night the annual intra-state tournament of the Wisconsin D-1 basketball teams start for the Badgers, as they take on the UW-M Panthers, then Marquette on Saturday, and then finish it with UW-Green Bay on Monday. The Panthers enter the contest with a 4-5 record coming off an 82-59 home loss to an undefeated Cleveland State team. In their bout with Marquette the Saturday after Thanksgiving, the Panthers went on a late 9-0 run to pull with 2 points of Marquette, but it wasn’t enough as the Gold were victorious in a 75-72 decision.


Forums: UW-M Freak



What the expert nerds say: Ken Pom predicts a 76-54 Badger victory in 63 possessions, with a 2% chance of upset.


Sagarin predicts a 19-point Badger victory.


Milwaukee Likely Rotation (First 6 Games Statistics)

*G – 6’3” JR Kaylon Williams (7.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 81.5 OR, 19% Poss, 16% Shot, 27% TO, 5.9 FTR, 29% of FGAs are 3PT)


*G – 6’0” SO Ja’Rob McCallum (7.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 91.2 OR, 20% Poss, 26% Shot, 15% TO, 1.4 FTR, 51% of FGAs are 3PT)


*G – 6’3” SR Tone Boyle (12.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.2 APG, 112.3 OR, 18% Poss, 25% Shot, 7% TO, 2.3 FTR, 53% of FGAs are 3PT)


*F – 6’8” JR Tony Meier (9.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, 115.4 OR, 18% Poss, 18% Shot, 17% TO, 4.0 FTR, 55% of FGAs are 3PT)


*F – 6’7” SR Anthony Hill (14.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 103.7 OR, 28% Poss, 26% Shot, 19% TO, 5.6 FTR, 1% of FGAs are 3PT)


G – 6’3” SO Lonnie Boga (5.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 99.2 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 17% TO, 2.8 FTR, 30% of FGAs are 3PT)


F – 6’9” FR Kyle Kelm (3.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 80.4 OR, 17% Poss, 15% Shot, 23% TO, 5.6 FTR, 38% of FGAs are 3PT)


G – 6’3” JR Ryan Allen (6.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 87.9 OR, 25% Poss, 21% Shot, 28% TO, 5.6 FTR, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)



PLAYER TRAITS

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Jeff Jordan (<28%)

Kyle Kelm = 25%

Kaylon Williams = 18%

Anthony Hill = 0%

Trevon Hughes (35-38%)

Lonnie Boga = 36%

Clayton Hanson (+38%)

Tone Boyle = 39%


TWO-POINT SHOOTING

Kevin Gullikson (<43%)

Kaylon Williams = 41%

Tone Boyle = 40%

Kyle Kelm = 35%

Marcus Landry (50-54%)

None

Mike Wilkinson (+54%)

Tony Meier = 62%

Anthony Hill = 55%


FREE THROW SHOOTING

Alando Tucker (<65%)

Anthony Hill = 60%

Kaylon Williams = 60%

Kyle Kelm = 56%

Ja’Rob McCallum = 50%

Lonnie Boga = 39%

Kam Taylor (75-82%)

None

Jason Bohannon (+82%)

None


DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Mike Wilkinson (17-20%)

Anthony Hill = 19%

Lonnie Boga = 17%

Kyle Kelm = 17%

Brian Butch/Joe Krabbenhoft (+20%)

None


OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING

Brian Butch (9-12%)

Anthony Hill = 11%

Tony Meier = 10%

Mike Bruesewitz (+12%)

None


STEALING

Trevon Hughes (3-4.4%)

Ryan Allen = 4.1%

Mike Kelley (+4.4%)

None


BLOCKING

Brian Butch (3-7%)

Tony Meier = 4%

Anthony Hill = 3.4%

Greg Stiemsma (+7%)

None


ASSISTS

Devin Harris (20-25%)

Kaylon Williams = 25%

Jordan Taylor (25-30%)

None

Demetri McCamey (+30%)

None


POSSESSION USAGE

Jason Chappell (<15%)

None

Brian Butch (24-28%)

Anthony Hill = 28%

Ryan Allen = 25%

Alando Tucker (+28%)

None


What Milwaukee is really good at:

1. Defensive rebounding. They are 17th in defensive rebounding (73.6%).


3. Taking care of the ball. They turn the ball over once every five possessions, 112th fewest in the nation.


3. Getting to the charity stripe. They attempt 4 FTs for almost every 9 FGAs, which is 92nd in the nation.


What Milwaukee is really bad at:

1. Three-point defense. This season, their opponents’ have shot a hot 38.5% from deep, which is 56th highest in the country.


2. Forcing turnovers. They force a measly 4 turnovers every 21 possessions, good for 260th in the nation.


3. Shooting free throws. They only hit 59% of their freebies, which is 328th in the nation.


4. Blocking shots. They only block 4 out of every 59 two-pointers their opponents attempt (253rd).


Relative Efficiency:

When UW-M has the ball: They have scored an average 0.99 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.89 this season.


When UW has the ball: They have given up a below average 1.03 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.


Pace: UW-M has played at 71 possessions per game to UW’s 61.


My expectations:

1. Badgers shoot better than 40% outside the arc. I think Tim, Josh, and Keaton get back on track from the arc, with Jon, Mike, and Jordan keep on keeping on.


2. Josh Gasser explodes for more than 12 points. He has cooled off considerably since his 21-point performance in the season opener. I like him to take advantage of the bad 3-point D and smaller front court challenging his drives.


3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% of the opportunities on defense. I scaled these back a bit.


4. The Badgers get back the “make more free throws than their opponents attempt” stat back for the season. If I recall correctly, it’s currently at -13, and I think they can get half of that back at +6 or better.


The Badgers edge the Panthers 65-52 in 58 possessions.

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