Minnesota Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Tonight the Big Ten season kicks off for the Badgers against one of their most hated rivals, the Gophers of Minnesota. The brown, furry rodents come into the game at 11-1, with only two top 119 (Ken Pom) wins, against West Virginia and North Carolina. I'm not sure why UNC is #29 right now, but I think that will sort itself out eventually. Other than those victories, the ground squirrels haven't looked like world-beaters against a bunch of cupcakes, and embarrassed themselves in a loss to Tony Bennett's undermanned Virginia team on national television.

What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 69-59 Badger victory in 61 possessions with a 15% chance of an upset.

Minnesota Likely Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Al Nolen	30.6	9.0	3.0	3.7	2.7	0.1	105.2	17.5	25.7	69.8%	47.4%	37.1%	45.7%	12.29	2.5	7.5	20.2	0.5	5.0
* G	6'4"	Blake Hoffarber	33.7	13.9	3.6	5.0	1.7	0.1	126.4	18.7	15.0	85.2%	48.6%	39.1%	71.3%	2.09	3.0	7.9	27.8	0.2	2.8
* F	6'7"	Rodney Williams	20.3	6.4	3.8	1.5	0.7	0.4	96.8	19.3	25.3	50.0%	63.0%	12.5%	25.8%	4.19	9.9	9.4	13.6	2.2	1.8
* F	6'8"	Trevor Mbakwe	26.8	13.2	9.8	0.7	1.1	1.3	108.3	23.2	19.6	55.3%	62.2%	-	0.0%	9.44	12.6	25.2	5.0	5.4	2.2
* F/C	6'11"	Ralph Sampson	25.7	11.5	6.0	1.3	0.6	2.2	109.1	21.5	16.2	71.2%	50.0%	30.0%	9.8%	5.10	7.1	16.9	10.2	9.2	1.2
G	6'4"	Devoe Joseph	26.5	11.8	2.0	3.3	0.8	0.0	105.8	22.5	19.0	60.0%	38.5%	40.0%	57.4%	2.46	0.6	6.9	24.3	0.0	1.7
F/C	6'10"	Colton Iverson	17.3	7.0	5.8	0.8	0.4	0.8	103.6	22.6	20.4	55.8%	51.7%	-	0.0%	7.41	16.4	18.8	8.2	5.2	1.3
G	6'4"	Austin Hollins	16.8	4.2	1.2	1.5	1.2	0.4	106.5	13.8	22.4	69.2%	40.9%	42.1%	46.3%	3.17	2.7	4.4	15.3	2.7	4.2
G	6'3"	Chip Armelin	10.1	4.2	1.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	93.7	21.5	21.7	40.0%	68.0%	20.0%	44.4%	2.22	3.6	13.2	11.7	0.9	2.3
G	6'2"	Maverick Ahanmisi	9.3	1.9	1.0	1.2	0.2	0.0	87.0	16.1	35.4	81.8%	37.5%	33.3%	42.9%	7.86	1.0	9.8	21.0	0.0	1.1

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	34	15.4	4.2	4.8	0.9	0.2	131.9	23.7	10.4	85.7%	47.6%	41.2%	37.8%	3.63	3.4	12.1	29.0	0.8	1.8
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	27	6.7	3.9	2.2	0.5	0.1	120.0	15.8	16.0	88.0%	57.1%	20.7%	45.3%	3.91	6.6	11.6	15.2	0.3	1.2
* F	6'6"	Mike Breusewitz	23	5.9	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.1	126.3	13.9	18.9	69.2%	59.3%	41.7%	47.1%	2.55	8.9	10.1	10.5	0.3	0.7
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	32	19.8	7.3	2.2	0.8	1.8	129.2	27.9	11.8	79.2%	51.4%	50.0%	35.9%	2.87	6.8	21.4	16.2	6.0	1.5
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	22	7.6	4.6	0.9	0.8	1.5	124.2	17.5	18.5	87.5%	60.0%	41.7%	34.8%	1.16	12.1	13.3	8.2	7.4	2.2
G/F	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	19	3.8	2.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	135.0	9.8	5.8	60.0%	50.0%	36.4%	84.6%	1.28	4.8	8.0	9.1	0.0	2.3
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	14	4.0	3.5	1.1	0.1	0.4	85.7	25.3	19.6	76.2%	30.8%	0.0%	5.5%	3.82	8.8	21.7	14.1	3.2	0.3
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	8.6	4.4	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	109.0	26.5	35.2	71.4%	63.2%	50.0%	38.5%	2.69	8.7	14.3	15.9	2.5	0.7
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	7.7	2.8	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	129.0	18.3	16.6	75.0%	68.8%	16.7%	27.3%	1.82	9.7	16.0	13.5	0.0	0.8
G	5'10"	Wquinton Smith	7.5	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.0	0.0	92.1	12.5	21.4	40.0%	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	5.56	11.7	3.2	15.3	0.0	0.0
G	6'1"	Ben Brust	3.9	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	68.1	17.2	20.0	-	33.3%	14.3%	53.8%	0.00	6.4	12.6	0.0	0.0	1.7
G	6'4"	Brett Valentyn	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	106.9	13.1	22.2	-	-	33.3%	100.0%	0.00	0.0	8.0	3.9	0.0	0.0

During this holiday season, we should remember to be thankful to our neighbors in East Dakota:

For our wonderful guys Jon Leuer, Jordan Taylor, Mike Breusewitz, and Jared Berggren all hail from that horrid place, and if it wasn't for Minnesota's inability to recruit them, we would have to get 48.2% of our minutes, 62.7% of our scoring, 45.9% of our rebounding, 57.7% of our assists, 52.9% of our blocks, and 48% of our steals from someplace else.

What Minnesota is really good and bad at:

	TO %	Reb%	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block %	Steal %
Offense	20.7	39.4	49.6	34.7	53.4	62.4	5.3	10.5
Defense	21.8	68.3	28.8	36.7	40.5	70.3	15.9	12.5

What Wisconsin is really good and bad at:

	TO %	Reb%	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block %	Steal %
Offense	15.3	39.8	28.0	38.2	50.5	79.1	5.9	7.8
Defense	19.9	72.0	28.7	36.3	39.8	70.9	11.8	7.0

Relative Efficiency:

When Minnesota has the ball: They have scored great 1.09 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.91 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an above average 0.97 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.20 this season.

Pace: Minnesota has played at 70 possessions per game to UW’s 60.

My expectations:

1. Badgers rain from deep, knocking down more than 9 threes. The Gophers' zone will allow open looks and the Badgers take advantage.

2. A Non-Jordan, -Jon, and –Keaton score in double figures. Let it ride, especially with the Gophers keying on Jordan and Jon and playing zone.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 75% on the defensive. They are good o-boarders but not d-boarders.

The Badgers kill the Gophers without a reason, 60-55 in 56 possessions.