Michigan Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: On Wednesday the Badgers return home for a two-game stand, first facing the Wolverines of Michigan. If I accidentally missed converting an OSU to Michigan, forgive me for it being late.


What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #10 and Michigan #90. He makes Wisconsin a 14-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #6 and Michigan #64. He predicts a 65-52 Badger victory in 58 possessions and gives the Badgers a 92% chance of winning.

Note: Sagarin and Pomeroy are unable to objectively calculate UW’s abilities with Jon Leuer out, so they don’t.


Michigan Rotation:
*G – 6’3” SO Laval Lucas-Perry (6.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 99.3 OR, 16% Poss, 15% Shot, 22% TO, 3% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 68% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’3” SO Stu Douglass (6.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 77% FT, 101.4 OR, 15% Poss, 17% Shot, 14% TO, 1% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 76% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Zack Novak (7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 62% 2PT, 106.8 OR, 13% Poss, 15% Shot, 12% TO, 5% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 67% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” JR Manny Harris (19.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.9 SPG, 54% 2PT, 79% FT, 112.6 OR, 30% Poss, 28% Shot, 16% TO, 8% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 34% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” SR DeShawn Sims (17.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 APG, 57% 2PT, 77% FT, 114.1 OR, 25% Poss, 30% Shot, 10% TO, 10% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 19% of FGAs are 3PT)

G – 6’4” FR Darius Morris (4.4 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.2 RPG, 50% 2PT, 85.5 OR, 16% Poss, 12% Shot, 31% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 30% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’10” SR Zack Gibson (4.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 65% 2PT, 118.4 OR, 21% Poss, 20% Shot, 14% TO, 13% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 22% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’4” FR Matt Vogrich (2.1 PPG, 41% 3PT, 92.1 OR, 19% Poss, 21% Shot, 24% TO, 5% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 69% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’6” JR Anthony Wright (1.3 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 81.8 OR, 17% Poss, 18% Shot, 20% TO, 6% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 58% of FGAs are 3PT)

Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%


What Michigan is really good at:

1. Shooting 2s. Michigan is 35th inside the arc (52.4%). This ranks them third in the Big Ten.

2. Not sending opponents to the line. Their opponents only attempt 3 free throws for every 11 field goal attempts. This ranks 2nd in the Big Ten.

3. Taking Care of the ball. They are 20th in the nation at avoiding turnovers, with a rate of 17.1%. This is third in the Big Ten.

4. Forcing Turnovers. The Wolverines are 38th in the nation, forcing a rate of 23.9%. They are 3rd in the Big Ten.


What Michigan is really bad at:

1. Getting to the line. They attempt only 2 free throws to every 7 shot attempts. This is 10th in the Big Ten and 328th in the nation.

2. Shooting threes. They shoot 29.1% from beyond the arc, 315th in the nation and 11th in the Big Ten.


Relative efficiency:

When Michigan has the ball: Michigan has scored an good 1.07 PPP in their first 17 games, while UW has given up a great 0.86 in their first 18.

When UW has the ball: Michigan gave up a good 0.93 in their first 17 games, while UW has scored a great 1.15 in their first 18.


Pace: Michigan has played at 65 possessions per game so far in their first 17 games compared to UW’s 62 in their first 18 games.


My expectations:

1. Manny Harris scores less than 16. I don’t have a legitimate reason for this. Just a feeling.

2. Jason Bohannon scores more than 14. I like his chances against a zone.

3. Badgers grab 35% or more of the offensive rebounding opportunities. Michigan’s zone defense makes them a bad defensive rebounding team.

4. Badgers hold Michigan to 25% or less outside the arc. This is Wisconsin’s strength against Michigan’s weakness.


My Prediction: The Badgers win 70-63 in 65 possessions.